Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

I've had them at off and on all day.

Have about a half inch here at the foot of round mtn

Toot wrote:Have about a half inch here at the foot of round mtn

It looked like that area had some of the best returns on radar today. I figured there might be some light accumulation with those bands.

Snow flurries here at home and in Fountain City.

Its all about the Polar Vortex come winter and the AO is just a measurement of how strong the Vortex is. When its weakened or broke down (-AO) high latitude blocking such as -EPO and -NAO forms. Out of the 5 strongest (this one not counted yet) el ninos on record.. on average 4 had positive AO/EPO values during the month of December.
The winter temp anomalies from those 4 show a warmer than normal northern US and a colder than normal southern US and its continental wide!! This is no doubt due to these nino winters turning back to negative AO/EPO/NAO during Jan and Feb

Forbes has west tn rated 5 and mid tn 4 for wednesday storms. Maybe a tornado outbreak. Almost makes me think of a few years ago when we had 70s in January. Will be interesting to see if the setup comes together.

Woke up this morning to look out over Mt. LeConte from Ski Mountain and there be snow on them there hills.

That wasn't in the forecasts!

Lots of energy will be floating around coming in from the SW starting next weekend, inside 7 days. Anyone else look at the overnight models?

Yeah! It's looking pretty good.... I was comparing the 6z and 12z gfs this morning just on the system now that could give us a dusting tonight and in the morning... They still can't get the placement right on the low track with this one as it is occurring.. The 6z has the low about 50 to 75 miles further west than the the new 12z run.... Which of the 12z run is correct that would give us a high chance at catching the heavier band of snow... We shall see... So 7 days out the models will suck, but in this pattern the south and se better look out! Fun times ahead.... The pattern is locked and loaded.....

I ended up with about 1/2 inch of snow late last night..... Toot what are you thoughts about late next weekend? I know it is a week away, but do you think with the pattern we have, that we have a good shot or will the storms get pushed to far south for us or more lake cutters.... I also know the modeling will suck just as with this last system..... Thanks.

I will say it!!!! This pattern is great, but will not last.... While we have all of this blocking and should favor the south and east for cold... It has, but any decent snow storm is starting to look like a no go for me at the moment other than the Midwest up through the great lake area... I think that with the El Niño even on the decline it is affecting what we should all be happy for.... Great storm tracks... Once the pattern starts to ease some and we start coming out of the strongest phase of the neg ao and nao we may see a better chance for some decent snows....(maybe)... I thought we would have been hammered by now...

I think we're sitting nice..especially for west TN..this is the best pattern they could ask for as far as snow goes but looks like the storm track is going to be a lil north of the best but I think there is a fairly good chance for a significant snow (3") or more statewide late this coming weekend ot the first of next week. You cant trust any guidance models out there past 72 hours right now due to the split floe (twice the normal energy incoming from the west.Like u said im waiting on the uptick of the AO/NAO (Kocin signal for Major nor'raster)

Low of 12.3F this morning.

Here is something to keep an eye on. this must be the one you were talking about toot? Didn't see it! I was focusing on what was cutting to the lakes.....

06z gfs


12z gfs


It is coming further north!!!

That's a gorgeous look.

Jscentraltn wrote:this must be the one you were talking about toot?

Yessir..that's the one I think will get us

Do you guys think the GFS is outperforming the EURO in this set up?

To be honest I think it has as far as surface..... In all no! They will all suck up until just right before an event with this pattern.... None even know what to do with the storm for fri sat timeframe.. It is a lot going on so be ready for surprises!( good and bad) lol!!!!

It's Tuesday. This week will fly by if we get to track a snow event all week.

12z gfs coming in and looks very nice!!!!! I would like to see a little farther north shift, but we will see.

Any thoughts? I think this has a chance to become a major storm.... I think it will still come farther north and toot you called it.... Great job! May start a new thread later for this as other modeling starts to catch on... Just not sold 100% yet....

Here is what the 12z Canadian offers, nothing more than some snow showers with the artic front....

Tomorrow we should see closer to the true outcome!

I will say whatever the outcome this weekend... We will have some very cold air to deal with. that Canadian run from above also shows low temps in the below 0 range..

Is the euro going to show a storm? I will post it later!