Long Range Thread

by **Toot** 2011-12-06, 6:22 pm

Post all your long and medium range thoughts here

So far this winter is not going as forecasted by most... including myself...high lattitude blocking in the NAO region has yet to be seen in a sustained way. All signs and signals pointed towards that last summer and fall...but it has not developed. As of 12z today the NAO was forecasted to stay around the neutral range but the 12z models did drop the AO into the negative range. The PNA was also forecasted to be near neutral in the medium range. Unlike last year the Arctic Oscillation has gotten highly positive this fall. A positive AO really allows cold air to build in thick around the north pole, northern Canada and other polar regions. Being that fall has the least amount of daylight in the polar regions and the AO has gotten highly positive the cold has built in extremely strong.

I imagine once the AO goes decently negative (and it will) that cold will dump into the eastern conus. I would think this probably happens in late December early Januaruy... I also imagine there will be a few records broke and the cold will seem more brutal compared to last year...but of course that's just me speculating.

by Guest 2011-12-06, 6:23 pm

You're not going to use the thread I made for you?? Wow, that hurts.. Crying or Very sad

by **Reb** 2011-12-06, 6:24 pm

seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

by **Toot** 2011-12-06, 6:26 pm

Tom23 wrote:You're not going to use the thread I made for you?? Wow, that hurts..

lol I didnt see it until now.

by **Toot** 2011-12-06, 6:27 pm

REB wrote:seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

If the rest of December ends up like the last half of November I would say so Reb.

by Guest 2011-12-06, 6:28 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Tom23 wrote:You're not going to use the thread I made for you?? Wow, that hurts..

lol I didnt see it until now.

lol

by Guest 2011-12-06, 6:29 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
REB wrote:seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

If the rest of December ends up like the last half of November I would say so Reb.

Good deal. More time to have fun with later on. Do you think, since the positive AO locked in the cold up around the Arctic areas, that once it drops down into the US that the Winter will be actually colder than you had originally thought??

by **Reb** 2011-12-06, 6:31 pm

Tom23 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
REB wrote:seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

If the rest of December ends up like the last half of November I would say so Reb.

Good deal. More time to have fun with later on. Do you think, since the positive AO locked in the cold up around the Arctic areas, that once it drops down into the US that the Winter will be actually colder than you had originally thought??

what? breaking records isn't enough for you tom? farao

by Guest 2011-12-06, 6:34 pm

Helllll nawww Reb.. haha

by **Toot** 2011-12-06, 6:36 pm

Tom23 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
REB wrote:seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

If the rest of December ends up like the last half of November I would say so Reb.

Good deal. More time to have fun with later on. Do you think, since the positive AO locked in the cold up around the Arctic areas, that once it drops down into the US that the Winter will be actually colder than you had originally thought??

I wouldnt think so Tom...allthough there could be some nice arctic outbreaks in late December and early January

by Guest 2011-12-06, 6:40 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Tom23 wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
REB wrote:seeing as how it started later do you see us having a longer winter?

If the rest of December ends up like the last half of November I would say so Reb.

Good deal. More time to have fun with later on. Do you think, since the positive AO locked in the cold up around the Arctic areas, that once it drops down into the US that the Winter will be actually colder than you had originally thought??

I wouldnt think so Tom...allthough there could be some nice arctic outbreaks in late December and early January

So something similar to the Early Jan pattern of 2010? That period featured below freezing temps for a whole week lol.

by **Reb** 2011-12-06, 10:27 pm

very possible tom

by **John1122** 2011-12-08, 12:38 am

If the AO will go negative, that will be an important building block. It's amazingly positive lately. If the PNA had been negative we'd have been having early December 70s in the area.

by **Toot** 2011-12-09, 8:10 pm

12z Euro is showing a very textbook and nice looking negative NAO developing in the extended range... this is something I haven't seen in any modeling for quite some time..we will have to watch the euro because it's not been all that great here lately.

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-10, 12:19 am

AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok's latest long range thoughts:

Latest European Weeklies Slightly Blurring the Winter Forecast

I looked at the European weeklies last evening which extend out through the first week of January. They continue to show lots of warmth for the end of the month and now into the start of January from the middle of the country on east. I still feel there will be an interruption in this warmth that the weeklies are not seeing. Remember, the weeklies from a few weeks ago did not pick up on all this cold for this week. I do agree with the ideas through Christmas week being mild for the East.

Over the next week or so, I am going to look more at the analogs and see what I can find. I want to look back at past years with similar PDO and NAO values. Remember, we are in a cold PDO where October can in at -1.34 and NAO has been consistently positive. I have been checking in on years and found a few of close values like 1994, 1975, 1970, 1998, 2000 and 2001. The two years that I have shown on previous posts, 1990 and 2009, have some similar but different traits. In, 1990 the NAO turned positive, while the PDO ran negative. However, in 2009, the PDO was positive and I have not found the NAO value, but I believe it was an negative NAO period, opposite of the current period.

For this reason, I think I may be heading away from 2009.

1990 mean heights Dec. 23-30

1990 temperature anomalies Dec. 23-30

1990 was stronger and farther south with the core of the cold. This is something I am looking for late in the month into early January, but without high confidence right now. Like I said before, the European shows a lot more warmth from the middle of the country on east with all the cooling in the West. I am leaning on a stronger ridge along the Southeast coast, some low-level chilly air in the north behind the fronts and mean trough still out in the west just after Christmas.

But then I shy away from the European anticipating the building cold in Alaska and northwest Canada will finally come south. The question is whether we will see a negative NAO and some blocking. They will determine whether I am looking at three- to five-day spell or a longer period of cold reaching the northern U.S., Lakes and Ohio Valley.

This was a vague writing today as the European has blurred the vision of the overall Winter Season Forecast. I need a couple of days to digest it, and we will talk more early next week.

Posted on Thursday, December 08, 2011 11:54:18 PM

by **Toot** 2011-12-10, 12:48 am

As long as the circumpolar vortex is positioned over northeastern North America its going to be seaonably to unseasonably cold over the eastern US overall. Beware of any forecast that tells you there will be longterm warmspells.... including teleconnections or model graphics. They should be taken very lightly and with a huge grain of salt. This feature is currently dominating our weather and it doesnt look to let up anytime soon. With this feature in control it will be mostly cool with a couple of days of pre-frontal warming before cold shots

0zGFS Day 8
Long Range Thread 2jfbubq

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-12, 12:20 am

if that polar vortex ever moves west some... its going to be torch city. but thats a if.

by **Reb** 2011-12-12, 12:21 am

id rather be warm with no snow than cold with no snow jocolor

by **Toot** 2011-12-12, 9:32 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:if that polar vortex ever moves west some... its going to be torch city. but thats a if.

I'm thinking about banning the word torch from this forum...lol Just Kidding Razz

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-12, 9:38 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if that polar vortex ever moves west some... its going to be torch city. but thats a if.

I'm thinking about banning the word torch from this forum...lol Just Kidding

well my lips are sealed toot... no more mention of that word Razz

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-12, 12:40 pm

Well I guess we will see who is correct as theres a couple people i see saying its going to be cold and another bunch saying its going to be warmer December. We shall see. I am leaning towards above average December like probably 2-3 degrees above overall as a whole. Also, im taking news channel 5's forecast everyday and copying it to paint to see how much they was wrong and/or correct and how much they change it too. Will be an interesting next few weeks to see if we will have a winter or if it will only be 1-2weeks then spring time.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-12, 1:51 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:12z Euro is showing a very textbook and nice looking negative NAO developing in the extended range... this is something I haven't seen in any modeling for quite some time..we will have to watch the euro because it's not been all that great here lately.

yeah the euro has been suckiing ass lately.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-12, 1:54 pm

Skillsweather wrote:Well I guess we will see who is correct as theres a couple people i see saying its going to be cold and another bunch saying its going to be warmer December. We shall see. I am leaning towards above average December like probably 2-3 degrees above overall as a whole. Also, im taking news channel 5's forecast everyday and copying it to paint to see how much they was wrong and/or correct and how much they change it too. Will be an interesting next few weeks to see if we will have a winter or if it will only be 1-2weeks then spring time.

if the gfs is right in long range, we will be wearing shorts and dodging thunderstorms by xmas, cant rule out severe either. frank strait even said something about that

by **John1122** 2011-12-12, 4:16 pm

As of now I am about to start putting my hopes in the January basket and will just treat it as a nice surprise if we get anything wintry more than maybe a cold chasing moisture type snow shower between now and then.