Febuary 24-26 2012 arctic front and snow potential

A LPS and an arctic airmass could possibly produce some wintry weather if pattern allows..right now looks like a strong lakes cutter with a possible low forming on its cold front

12z euro

500mb vort ...look at that trough


2m temp and 700mb RH

you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

tennessee storm09 wrote:you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

You can create a svr thread for it...its a legit snow and svr threat...but we will have to keep them seperate

Toot wrote:

tennessee storm09 wrote:you can also add a severe threat with this system toot, tonights gfs clearly shows that.

You can create a svr thread for it...its a legit snow and svr threat...but we will have to keep them seperate

yeah, i know bud.. my bad

OHX list this coming Friday night as 30% rain/Snow showers low of 29..
Work it, work it BABY!!!

Possible Extreme fetch system

Ugh...but I was ready for spring

Long range Euro looked pretty blah. Plenty of cold in Canada to work with but it has a hard time making it southeast. There just has been no mechanism (NAO) to get the cold into the southeast for an extended period thsi winter. To pay for this craptastic winter I'd like to see a solid NAO from October to March next year. So frustrating.

snowdog wrote:Long range Euro looked pretty blah. Plenty of cold in Canada to work with but it has a hard time making it southeast. There just has been no mechanism (NAO) to get the cold into the southeast. To pay for this craptastic winter I'd like to see a solid NAO from October to March next year. So frustrating.

the euro actually looked warm in longer range

Both models show some battling between a strong arctic airmassand the southeast ridge.

Looks like more of a chance of ice/sleet to me. But Tennessee does look to be in the battle zone. We could end up on the warm side or on the cold/snow side.

jmundie wrote:Both models show some battling between a strong arctic airmassand the southeast ridge.

Looks like more of a chance of ice/sleet to me. But Tennessee does look to be in the battle zone. We could end up on the warm side or on the cold/snow side.

yep, that spells big trouble shaping up... battle of the air masses... the ridge in the se seems to want to steepen in longer range

Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

oakridgeweather wrote:Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

My mind is blown!



Watch this one be the storm that actually delivers the goods to the valley.

oakridgeweather wrote:Straight from WVLT-
POSSIBLE SCENARIO SNOWFALL: MY FIRST CALL
Near 70 degrees on Thursday
1.00 to 1.50 inches of RAIN and THUNDER on Friday
12 AM to 3 AM Saturday, RAIN changes to SNOW in KNOXVILLE
1 to 4 inches of SNOW early Saturday
1 to 2" potentially for Knoxville, 2 to 4" for the Plateau, and 4 to 6" for the Smokies.
Chief Meteorologsit David Aldrich

Interesting...the 12z euro may support that but most of the guidance that I have seen lately looks like a strong cold front with not much post frontal precip and some NW flow snow showers which dont usually result in accumulating snow in the Knoxville area. This is still a timeframe that could be conducive for accumulating snow but im not really seeing what David Aldrich is at this point.

That guy must be insane.

Looks like winter is over folks. Thought there would be a second cold shot next week, but that's all but disappeared on the models. Raging positive NAO is not good for late season snow possibilities.

jmundie wrote:That guy must be insane.

Looks like winter is over folks. Thought there would be a second cold shot next week, but that's all but disappeared on the models. Raging positive NAO is not good for late season snow possibilities.

Dang it, Mundie. You're gonna jinx what shot we have left! So far I have had two...count em...two flakes at my house all year. Seriously, only one dusting that was gone by mid morning.

Well - sometimes the best thing is to give up. I gave up in February 08, and we got a nice storm the second week of March.

I was holding out some hope on Monday, but the modeling keeps getting worse and worse. There is plenty of cold air in canada - the coldest air of the globe actually - but its locked up there, and the brief transient cold shots that had been showing up are now turning to storms and no cold.

I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Like this?

wholey balls

jmundie wrote:Well - sometimes the best thing is to give up. I gave up in February 08, and we got a nice storm the second week of March.

I was holding out some hope on Monday, but the modeling keeps getting worse and worse. There is plenty of cold air in canada - the coldest air of the globe actually - but its locked up there, and the brief transient cold shots that had been showing up are now turning to storms and no cold.

Can't give up yet! I'm still holding out for my one inch. I even cut my grass super short that way it looks like I got more snow, if it ever does. Glass half full, Mundie.

Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Generally - when I don't see any cold outbreaks in the ensemble members, that's when I lose hope for a two week period. If not even one member shows more than a day of cold, getting snow is going to be incredibly timing based.

Euro does look interesting at 192. A little too far north but still

jmundie wrote:

Toot wrote:I wont go as far as to say that winter is over...thats a little wreckless but we have entered into a timeframe where snow will be less likely. That said...we could get a devil of a big one in the month of march....nobody knows.

Generally - when I don't see any cold outbreaks in the ensemble members, that's when I lose hope for a two week period. If not even one member shows more than a day of cold, getting snow is going to be incredibly timing based.

Euro does look interesting at 192. A little too far north but still

Sorry - between 168 and 192