Winter 2012/2013 early look

I'm not certain about this winter other than it's bound to be better than last winter.

Toot, cfs version 2 isnt as spectacular as 1. Dec and jan are warm and feb is normal .Like u have said, its all dependant on nao and ao.They posted some maps over at american weather under the new england forum that shows the similarities to past weak elninos and the warmer and colder waters and their locations. The euro and sips seasonal model run will be out soon

i am really liking this pattern i am seeing heading into fall... nice ridge building out west... east troughy, lets keep this trend going into winter we will have fun n games folks.

These early fall patterns can sometimes clue you in on how winter patterns may set up... but like last year they can also lead you astray

Last year was so anomalous, it's not worth basing anything on. When the AO tanked and the NAO managed to stay near positive it just wasn't going to happen for us. Historically the NAO will follow the AO in the tank 87% of the time. Last year we basically got the 1 in 10 anomaly.

I see where the ensembles have trended back negative with the NAO in the extended range.

This comes from some wx nerds out in Kansas...silly guys!!

Can anyone tell me what #6 and 7 say? I cant see it very well from my phone. Toot the nao should stay negative for a while. I still believe our coldest month will be december. Im going against what others are thinking. Also, someone mentioned on another forum that the stratosphere was really cold this time last yr, but they think its not as cold as it was last yr at same time. One more thing i read was that the euro seasonal models came out yesterday toot, and they are showing a monster gulf of alaska ridge but lower heights from hudsons bay through greenland, hence a + nao. Also, on that model interpretation, a n atlantic ridge on steroids for the winter.

6 says cool with snow and ice storms/ 7 says cool with alot more snow and ice than u sual.

Mrgolf wrote:Can anyone tell me what #6 and 7 say? I cant see it very well from my phone. Toot the nao should stay negative for a while. I still believe our coldest month will be december. Im going against what others are thinking. Also, someone mentioned on another forum that the stratosphere was really cold this time last yr, but they think its not as cold as it was last yr at same time. One more thing i read was that the euro seasonal models came out yesterday toot, and they are showing a monster gulf of alaska ridge but lower heights from hudsons bay through greenland, hence a + nao. Also, on that model interpretation, a n atlantic ridge on steroids for the winter.

Any particular reason you're going with dec as coldest? Weak rl niño would argue otherwise.

All of this winter talk has brought me out of my summer hiding ha ha. I hope everyone is doing well. I have been spending quite a bit of time this morning reading up on Winter predictions, I found this one to be interesting and insightful, what do you guys think?

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

Andy that outlook is put together well and has plenty of support. Thanks for sharing

Jmundie, the only reason i feel like december will be colder than most people think is b/c of the QBO RELATIONSHIP! Its negative rite now, and if it can stay negative thru beg of winter, we may have a colder start than most are thinking. Also, there is supposively lower sunspot activity right now

nice post andy.


also i have a question. maybe mostly for you guys around knoxville. do think they will be right all this winter. like if they say we are going to get 4” of snow do you think it will be less or more than what they say? seams like most the time they are wrong.

The upper Midwest may have some early action. This is 6-7 days out.

Mrgolf wrote:Jmundie, the only reason i feel like december will be colder than most people think is b/c of the QBO RELATIONSHIP! Its negative rite now, and if it can stay negative thru beg of winter, we may have a colder start than most are thinking. Also, there is supposively lower sunspot activity right now

personally i think the qbo is way over rated in determine the winter season... and as far as sun spot activity, for what i am reading will remain low going into spring of 2013...if anything december may be our warmest.

snowtaco wrote:


also i have a question. maybe mostly for you guys around knoxville. do think they will be right all this winter. like if they say we are going to get 4” of snow do you think it will be less or more than what they say? seams like most the time they are wrong.

Anybody giving a specific amount of snow with a forecast is doing nothing but guessing. There is nothing available to give one any skill to forecast specific seasonal snowfall totals. Those amounts are highly dependant on mesoscale features and future storm behavior.. which cannot be predicted with anykind of accuracy beyond a couple of days much less months.

IMO if a forecaster wants to have any chance of verifying a snowfall forecast.. a general above or below normal is as good as it gets.

Toot wrote:

snowtaco wrote:


also i have a question. maybe mostly for you guys around knoxville. do think they will be right all this winter. like if they say we are going to get 4” of snow do you think it will be less or more than what they say? seams like most the time they are wrong.

Anybody giving a specific amount of snow with a forecast is doing nothing but guessing. There is nothing available to give one any skill to forecast specific seasonal snowfall totals. Those amounts are highly dependant on mesoscale features and future storm behavior.. which cannot be predicted with anykind of accuracy beyond a couple of days much less months.

IMO if a forecaster wants to have any chance of verifying a snowfall forecast.. a general above or below normal is as good as it gets.

Really what they do is work with probabilities.

So instead of saying "this area will have higher/lower than normal snowfall"

Its "this area has a higher probability of above/below average snowfall"

When you use probabilities - it kinda gives you an out. But that's all weather forecasting is, educated guessing. We can look at prior winters with a weak el nino after two la ninas in a negative PDO, and we can say based on those imputs, it should be colder and snowier than average, but at the end of the day, any number of things could happen that cause that to bust.

joe lundberg over on accuweather, still using the 76 77 year as his top analog for this upcoming winter... latest blog on accuweather.

Does anyone ever check this site out. It's an early winter outlook 12/13 season.http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

windstorm wrote:Does anyone ever check this site out. It's an early winter outlook 12/13 season.http://snowday1.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/winter-forecast-2012-2013/

Thanks for the read windstorm..I hadnt seen that one.

Your welcome.

Siberian snow cover correlation = Ground zero for determining warm or cold winter in the Eastern US

Toot wrote:Siberian snow cover correlation = Ground zero for determining warm or cold winter in the Eastern US

I'm interested to see if we'll see a rapid buildup of snowfall in the higher latitudes this fall due to the amount of open water from the low ice extent. More moisture=heaver snowfalls? Should make for an interesting fall season..

lyngo wrote:

I'm interested to see if we'll see a rapid buildup of snowfall in the higher latitudes this fall due to the amount of open water from the low ice extent. More moisture=heaver snowfalls? Should make for an interesting fall season..

Good point and indeed it will be interesting to see what effects the record low sea ice has on sensible wx this fall. Personally..im ready for one those strong "squall line" type cold fronts that ushers in pure Arctic air..but its still early fall