TS Debby Floods Florida

by **Toot** 2012-06-21, 8:43 pm

I think this one is thread worthy and soon to be TS Debby is already showing signs of organization as the sun sets on the Carribean this evening

TS Debby Floods Florida 283772_458632424148190_950990213_n

TS Debby Floods Florida 283772_458632424148190_950990213_n

The NHC has went with a high chance of this becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

12z Euro

12z Canadian
TS Debby Floods Florida F96

by Vanster67 2012-06-22, 1:16 am

Yea. Debbie coming to the Gulf area soon.... yikes

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-06-22, 5:38 am

unfortunetly this thing dont look to help us out at all on the rain deficit... upper ridge keeps this south... she is heading across mexico... we are nearing 12 inches below normal for this time of year... getting serious folks.

by **Adam2014** 2012-06-22, 8:23 am

GFS has this storm making landfall in Florida.
NAM has the storm hanging around Texas.
EURO has what looks to be a hurricane making landfall North of Galveston Texas.

It definately looks like the GFS is the outlier. But I wouldn't write off the storm just yet we are still a ways out and things can change.

by **Toot** 2012-06-22, 8:26 am

Bruce... there is no model at all showing this going to Mexico. This mornings euro gets close but that model has been playing catch up the whole time with this system. The whole gulf coast line could be under the gun here.

Steering this system really has nothing to with any upper ridge either. The upper ridge has moved out of the east when this forms...where this goes depends on the Bermuda High and the timing of a trough that sweeps through the east.

by **Toot** 2012-06-22, 8:46 am

Some of this mornings SREF members are pretty deep uh oh

by **Toot** 2012-06-22, 8:54 am

Insanely cold cloud tops this morning also

TS Debby Floods Florida Avn0-lalo

by **snowdog** 2012-06-22, 9:57 am

Bastardi tweeted, "Cant find a west track north of 25n in June. Still betting on the classic turn off to the northeast,tough to back away from that".

by **Adam2014** 2012-06-22, 12:52 pm

Toot wrote:Some of this mornings SREF members are pretty deep

That is extreme there wow! Yeah Spann said this thing was trending east as well.

by **Adam2014** 2012-06-22, 12:54 pm

[img]

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GFS esembles right now the mean track is over Florida but really it could go anywhere in the gulf right now.

by **Toot** 2012-06-22, 1:55 pm

12z CMC is probably a major hurricane that will cause destruction. pass out

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-22, 6:48 pm

Pretty early in the year for such an intense tropical system. The demise of La Nina hasn't put a damper on the tropics so far.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-06-22, 7:57 pm

the euro has this thing pretty much pegged... maybe a tad to far north... this thing has no place to go but west... the ridge is going to only get stronger squashing this like a masehd potato... look out mexico...

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 1:37 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:the euro has this thing pretty much pegged... maybe a tad to far north... this thing has no place to go but west... the ridge is going to only get stronger squashing this like a masehd potato... look out mexico...

The EURO dont have a clue.. it goes from FL to TX in one different model run...it and the GFS has been taken to school by the CMC for the last week.

THE EURO KEEPS WAFFLING FROM EAST TO WEST...IT DONT EVEN KNOW WHAT ITS DOING... MUCH LESS HAVING IT PEGGED. THE CMC ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEEN DEAD ON THIS SYSTEM FOR A WEEK SOLID AND ITS HELD VERY CONSISTENTLY ONTO THE WESTERN GULF LANDFALL.

TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000

TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_108_0000

Then the troff/cold front totally misses it...which allows to suck up more bathwater SST's and further intensify
TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000

TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000

Before disipating around TX
TS Debby Floods Florida P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-23, 3:11 am

No real steering flow to move this inland quickly, at least if it doesn't get picked up by the trough coming down the East Coast. Sure wish it would be pulled up our way....

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 3:14 am

Latest GFDL has first landfall on FL/AL border at 988Mb pals

TS Debby Floods Florida Invest96l.2012062300_16

Ramdis fltr
TS Debby Floods Florida 179

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 3:55 am

RAP 10M winds just as this one starts to intrensify uh oh

And just to show the uncertainty of the cane models lapat

TS Debby Floods Florida Storm-96-Spaghetti

I love LSU's satellite

TS Debby Floods Florida Latest_wv

by **Adam2014** 2012-06-23, 8:02 am

So here is what we have on the table guys....

The GFS has this thing making landfall around Tampa, FL has a sub 1000 mb pressure tropical cyclone.

The NAM is very fast and very weak with the storm making landfall around Texas/Mexico. The NAM is also pretty strong with the cold front/trough.

The RAP has this storm going along Toot's track, the storm kinda meanders around the Gulf for a day or so.

The SREF has the storm almost making landfall near Panama City, FL as a pretty strong tropical cyclone.

The Euro has this storm making landfall near Galvaston, Texas.

Right now I am loving Toot's prediction especially since that is what the RAP is showing. The storms looks to stall around a day or 2 and then slowly meander West and maybe make landfall a couple of times.

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 9:22 am

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 9:52 am

Latest tracks including the GFS ensembles

TS Debby Floods Florida Storm_96

Hard to believe they are still having trouble honing in on a track popcorn

Definately can see the spin where the actual LL circulation is
TS Debby Floods Florida AOI2_ir_loop

SST'S

0z CMC

0zGFS

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-23, 9:55 am

And just to show the uncertainty of the cane models

Per your posted models: It won't move southeast. That is certain. lol

by **Toot** 2012-06-23, 9:59 am

WxFreak wrote:Per your posted models: It won't move southeast. That is certain. lol

I wouldnt trust any of them. I would lean towards the CMC...it has been very consistent while ALL other models have been all over the place. Im just glad to have something interesting going on in the WX Dept Freak

pals

by **WxFreak** 2012-06-23, 10:07 am

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:Per your posted models: It won't move southeast. That is certain. lol

I wouldnt trust any of them. I would lean towards the CMC...it has been very consistent while ALL other models have been all over the place. Im just glad to have something interesting going on in the WX Dept Freak

Yes, watching weather from a distance is better than nothing to watch at all. TS Debby Floods Florida 1492543149

by **jmundie** 2012-06-23, 10:10 am

I'm starting to wonder if we don't get two systems out of this. The trough pulls a bit of energy across the panhandle, and leaves behind another low that develops and moves west before moving inland between Houston and Bioloxi