Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo

by **Toot** 2012-06-28, 4:45 pm

So far I have three analogs based on current wx patterns for this coming winter. 1952/53 1988/89 1936/37

I think these match the current weather pattern pretty well with two of the three favoring ENSO predictions by Winter. I may add a couple of more later

Winter of 1936/37 mean 500mb height
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 2564tg2

Winter 36/37 Mean potential surface temps
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 343jm28

Winter of 1952/53 mean 500Mb heights
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 33256wo

Winter of 1952/53 mean potential surface temps
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 22b255

Winter of 1988/89 mean 500Mb heights
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo Bgryuv

Winter of 1988/89 potential surface temps
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 157ocn

I will add more years as I get time this summer/fall and the composite anomalys for those years. Then I will put them all together to get a mean of all the analogs for a preliminary winter forecast.

Anyone else have any analogs and why you chose them?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-06-28, 7:49 pm

i really am starting to see similarites of 76 77 winter... that year was coming off a back to back nina... we also got into a prolong serious heat wave n drought that summer also...

by **snowdog** 2012-06-28, 8:11 pm

Can you give me and others on the board a quick tutorial on how you find those images? I've never figured out how to get those maps from certain years or combined years showing certain conditions.

by **Toot** 2012-06-28, 8:29 pm

snowdog wrote:Can you give me and others on the board a quick tutorial on how you find those images? I've never figured out how to get those maps from certain years or combined years showing certain conditions.

Here is the site Snowdog

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl

There is several different ways you can create different plots. The help section has a tutorial on each way there is to input year..days..months data. If I can be of further assistance...just let me know beer

by **Toot** 2012-06-28, 8:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i really am starting to see similarites of 76 77 winter... that year was coming off a back to back nina... we also got into a prolong serious heat wave n drought that summer also...

Now wouldnt that be a winter lovers dream

DJF 1976/77

500Mb Anomaly
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo Compday.68.118.84.250.179.18.31.59

Potential surface temp mean
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo Compday.68.118.84.250.179.18.36.4

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-06-28, 9:19 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:i really am starting to see similarites of 76 77 winter... that year was coming off a back to back nina... we also got into a prolong serious heat wave n drought that summer also...

Now wouldnt that be a winter lovers dream

DJF 1976/77

500Mb Anomaly

Potential surface temp mean

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-08, 2:40 pm

latest cpc has updated in saying a west based nino looking likely... thats great news for snow lovers in the eastern half of the country wash

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-10, 10:52 pm

brett anderson came out tonight his first signs this winter... folks may not want to look at it if you want snow n cold... he has us in the very warm sector... already hinting on the nao stays positive for the heart of winter... weak to moderate nino.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-07-10, 10:57 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:brett anderson came out tonight his first signs this winter... folks may not want to look at it if you want snow n cold... he has us in the very warm sector... already hinting on the nao stays positive for the heart of winter... weak to moderate nino.

I believe I'll pass. lol

by **Toot** 2012-07-10, 11:10 pm

Its WAYYYYYYYYY too early for ANY kind of forecast for winter...lol

Where is this forecast of Brett Andersons?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-10, 11:13 pm

Toot wrote:Its WAYYYYYYYYY too early for ANY kind of forecast for winter...lol

Where is this forecast of Brett Andersons?

got to accuweather.com toot go to blog section buddy

by **Toot** 2012-07-10, 11:17 pm

Oh ok.. that's what the latest EURO weeklies seem to be showing. If he had a forecast out this early i was going to troll his blog..lol Twisted Evil

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-10, 11:20 pm

Toot wrote:Oh ok.. that's what the latest EURO weeklies seem to be showing. If he had a forecast out this early i was going to troll his blog..lol

lol...

i hear you man, but man i hope this changes... like you said, way to early.

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-11, 11:15 am

Well, I can tell ya this. If we have another winter o’ torch (sorry Toot, but torch is an apt description of what we had last year), then I’m putting my remaining eggs (those that weren’t fried during the record heat wave) into the “climate change” basket. smoke

by **Toot** 2012-07-11, 11:24 am

now freak...a couple of warm winters is no reason to get crazy beer

by **WxFreak** 2012-07-11, 12:47 pm

Now Toot, a couple of cold winters doesn't mean it ain't real. pals

by **snowdog** 2012-07-11, 4:27 pm

Last winter was a pattern straight from hell itself. I was actually surprised we weren't warmer than we were.

by **Toot** 2012-07-11, 4:45 pm

WxFreak wrote:Now Toot, a couple of cold winters doesn't mean it ain't real.

Lol..its all weather to me Very Happy

by **Toot** 2012-07-11, 5:44 pm

Since it looks like we are headed for a weak to moderate El Nino this winter..I thought I would throw some good old climatology into the mix. Weak El Nino's favor cold weather over the East during winter. If the Nino were to become a strong one then climo would suggest a warmer than normal winter. Right now the Nino looks to be a weak one which is good news for winter wx lovers.

Temp departures from normal during weak El Nino winter's(DJF) since 1950.
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo 2ito2sx

by **Toot** 2012-07-11, 5:50 pm

Here is some more climo graphics from FSU for all El Nino's during winter
Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo Fst-temp-us-big

Winter 2012/13 Analogs/Climo Fst-precip-us-big

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-07-11, 7:32 pm

snowdog wrote:Last winter was a pattern straight from hell itself. I was actually surprised we weren't warmer than we were.

we would have been, if the polar vortex didnt sit alot over southern canada... that seem to keep us a little colder t time

by **jmundie** 2012-07-11, 8:40 pm

Toot wrote:Oh ok.. that's what the latest EURO weeklies seem to be showing. If he had a forecast out this early i was going to troll his blog..lol

One would do well to check Anderson's prior post from the weeklies on July 4. It had the week of July 9th (this week) as "very hot and dry"

BNA has been below guidance the last 3 days... Today we only hit 80, tomorrow's forecast high is now 79 (and if the upper low finally moves we may struggle to get there)

Not a lot of -10 plus degree high temp departures in July.

by **Toot** 2012-07-13, 6:08 pm

jmundie wrote:

One would do well to check Anderson's prior post from the weeklies on July 4. It had the week of July 9th (this week) as "very hot and dry"

BNA has been below guidance the last 3 days... Today we only hit 80, tomorrow's forecast high is now 79 (and if the upper low finally moves we may struggle to get there)

Not a lot of -10 plus degree high temp departures in July.

Yeah...I never was a big Brett Anderson fan myself. If I lived in Canada I might read his blogs lol!

by **Toot** 2012-07-13, 9:48 pm

Ran across an interesting little article this evening

Bering Sea ice blocking Arctic supply ships
CBC News | Eye on the Arctic | Jul 12, 2012

Brutal sea ice conditions that northwest Alaska battled all winter haven’t receded in parts of northern Canada. Two resupply ships are stuck waiting at the mouth of Frobisher Bay in Iqaluit because of tough ice conditions. Frobisher Bay is an inlet of the Labrador Sea.

In June, winds and currents pushed heavy ice in to the area, CBC News reported on Wednesday.

Now, two Canadian Coast Guard icebreakers are trying to punch a path through for the resupply vessels. However, the ice is so thick that it’s closing in around the icebreakers before the other ships can follow.

"Thirty miles of heavy ice to get to Pike Risser channel. And from Iqaluit you can see out your window … basically open water, but it's ice out of Pike Risser channel. Outside of that, that is where the heavy ice is," said Andy Maillet of the Coast Guard's Arctic Operations Centre.

Maillet doesn't expect the ice conditions to improve until mid-July. Rain and drizzle have made navigation even harder, cutting visibility.

One of the sealift ships that has stalled belongs to Nunavut Sea Link and Supply. Manasie Mark, who is with the company, said people have been calling to ask where their sealift is.

"I usually answer them by letting them know the ice conditions are bad at the moment and they are trying their best,” he said.
“I know they are going to (arrive eventually)."

One of the sealift boats has been diverted to Kimmirut, a Nunavut town of 400 on Hudson Strait, a instead of waiting for the ice to go away.

The Coast Guard said they have not seen conditions like this since 2009.

Since Nunavut has no road links with the rest of Canada, all the communities depend on an annual resupply of goods and fuel from ships.

Hmmm...

by **snowdog** 2012-07-14, 12:57 am

Toot wrote:Ran across an interesting little article this evening

Bering Sea ice blocking Arctic supply ships
CBC News | Eye on the Arctic | Jul 12, 2012

Hmmm...

Cold PDO is definitely having an effect up there. Should be interesting in about a decade if the AMO flips to negative and the PDO is still negative (as it should be).