**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Mother Nature must hate us.

Latest RAP (16z) shows snow from hours 6-8 in Knoxville. Around .3 QPF (give or take a few hundredths) during that time give or take a few hundredths.

Yeah, if I can squeeze out an inch, I'd be happy. Anything more, would just be better. Just not sure about this one. Of course, we could be totally wrong, but I don't know, I just don't like the way things are playing out right now.

Aha! So my original call WAS right... boom chacka chacka boom...

John1122 wrote:That said, this is gonna be a major bust vs what was modeled.

John I still think you will do okay with this storm but the rest of the valley maybe not so much.

Temp is 34 here this waiting game is killing me.

Its is back up to 39f here in Meigs up from 37

1234snow wrote:

John1122 wrote:That said, this is gonna be a major bust vs what was modeled.

John I still think you will do okay with this storm but the rest of the valley maybe not so much.

Temp is 34 here this waiting game is killing me.

I'd say maybe an inch for my area. 2 possible. Getting moderate sleet right now.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1215 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-172000-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...
JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
1215 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

.NOW...
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UP TO HALF
AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ONCE SNOW BEGINS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE GRASSY AREAS. AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 3 PM.

VFL wrote:Mother Nature must hate us.

If you live in the south and love snow, yes, most of the time she hates you. You guys are going to see some snow today. You can't b1tch too much. Nashville has sat at 34 to 35 degrees the last 3 days with boatloads of precip. Now we get to watch the mid MS valley and TN valley get snow today.

snowdog wrote:

VFL wrote:Mother Nature must hate us.

If you live in the south and love snow, yes, most of the time she hates you. You guys are going to see some snow today. You can't b1tch too much. Nashville has sat at 34 to 35 degrees the last 3 days with boatloads of precip. Now we get to watch the mid MS valley and TN valley get snow today.

I would not say that just yet, not looking good here either.

Looks like the radar is beginning to show signs of closing the gap, as there is precip breaking out btwn the two low's that once had a solid gap btwn them. Still don't know though how much it will fill, or how quick this will happen.

Deform band setting up in N Alabama, any chance it slides in the valley?

I think it kinda morphs into a bigger deform band with the rain that we are currently getting. Meaning that we will be in the deform band, in theory. Correct me someone though, if I'm wrong.

Jed33 wrote:Looks like the radar is beginning to show signs of closing the gap, as there is precip breaking out btwn the two low's that once had a solid gap btwn them. Still don't know though how much it will fill, or how quick this will happen.

MRX said the gap would fill in everywhere but the Southern Valley.

tom23 wrote:Aha! So my original call WAS right... boom chacka chacka boom...

LOL....
your original was a mix at best..so if it turnd to snow you bust. But youve already changed your original call..besides the event hasnt even began yet. Its about to tho

seeing some flakes mix in the rain here in Hamblen county

Last few frames of the radar have shown a mix here in Unioci county. No clue if thats verifying or not, it has been pouring rain here!!

Also per WCYB, Norton Co and Scott Co Virginia are reporting ice.

Mostly sleet with some quarter sized snow flakes here now. Sleet is covering the decks and car tops. Precip rate has backed off again for now though.

VFL wrote:Deform band setting up in N Alabama, any chance it slides in the valley?

Look at the RAP 700mb vertical velocities on Twisterdata.com, that will give you a good idea where the deform band goes. The main deform band and best dynamics due to it will stay in the southern TN valley.

Toot wrote:

tom23 wrote:Aha! So my original call WAS right... boom chacka chacka boom...

LOL....
your original was a mix at best..so if it turnd to snow you bust. But youve already changed your original call..besides the event hasnt even began yet. Its about to tho

seeing some flakes mix in the rain here in Hamblen county

Yep, been mixing a little for the last hour or so. My temp is 34 degrees here.

Just found this. Looks good for extreme NE Knox co. Northeastward

Figures the moisture is moving out right as the change over happened here. Hopefully the gap starts filling in, I am sadly probably too far north to get the deeper moisture this evening but I'll hold out hope.

John, I think you'll be alright. The gap is filling on radar, and the deformation band is beginning to set up. mtns. and NC probably do great with this

Getting snow mixed in with rain in north Knox co. I'm see it with my own eyes.

Ground is getting white here now, snowing pretty hard but it looks like it's gonna go on hiatus for a while judging by the radar trends.