Big Dog Call maps/Forecasts

Alright here is my forecast

After a warm December old man winter is just getting started here in the eastern US. One the first products of this colder pattern is what I have called and continue to call a "Southern Slider" winter storm system. this winter storm will likely lay a swath of wet snow down from central/southern Mississippi all the way up towards the southern tip of New Jersey!

A strong upper level low/shortwave will swing into the southeastern states tonight where it will begin changing the rain associated with a stalled out surface boundary to snow. Snow could become heavy at times underneath the cold core of the upper low after midnight tonight in central and southern Mississippi and into the day tomorrow in central and northern Alabama.

At the surface a low begins to strengthen across eastern Georgia and as the upper low begins to dampen out and lose its forcing some of the lower valley locales in northern GA and southeastern TN could have trouble changing the rain over to snow.. but I expect it will eventually change.

As the surface low begins to move east-northeast the associated precip field will spread northward into more of a polar airmass moving in from the west. With the help of some upper level dynamics the rain will also change to snow there. This is where I expect the snow will become extremely heavy with very impressive snowfall rates.. especially in the southern Appalachian mountains where I expect trees will ultimately snap due to the high water content of the precip. Due to how dynamic this system is I will not be surprised to hear multiple reports of thundersnow too. Taking the latest guidance into consideration here is my updated/final forecast graphic.

Just so everyone knows, I am going to post what Toot said on his fb page regarding what the different levels of accumulations on his call map mean. Toot, feel free to delete this post if you don't feel like its my place to do so, but I just wanted to clear up some possible questions members that don't follow your fb page may have.

Light= Trace-3 inches
Moderate= 3-6 inches
Heavy= 6+

That's a good call Toot! I love it! Here's hoping for snow tomorrow afternoon! Assuming Knoxville does get more than 4in, when was the last time that happened? I didn't live here in 2009-2011, but seems like the heaviest during that time was 4in? I could be wrong though.

I remember 2 good 4" snows in 2006 January to February timeframe. In fact one was on 2/18, the day I got married.

We had another good snow since then, but I can't remember the year off hand.

DT (Wxrisk.com) has 3-6 in Knox county...6-9 in Morristown/Greeneville area 9-12 in the Bristol/Johnson City area. Which is possible but half of those totals is a very comfortable bet right now

TWC


MRX