Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

18z GFS is dropping the hammer on temps starting next week all the way to the end of the run. Couple minor snow threats here and there, but some highs in the single digits and teens and subzero lows showing up. Extreme to say the least

we talking in the NE or farther south. thanks

The 18z had brutal temps across the entire eastern half of the U.S. Had highs in the single digits here and around 10 in Chattanooga on the coldest day with subzero at night. Not likely to happen in mid February for sure. 0z and 6z were not as cold. 0z had some close calls on snow. 6z had a bomb between 252-276 for the whole state. Euro was cold but lost it's 12z storm. So back to model chaos.

Thanks. We have had temps down to 7 or 8 this winter so far. Airport had 9. I have two weather station and on that cold morning one was reading 7.2 and the other 8. But anyway, wonder if this is going to be another fail miss like the rest of the winter? The way it been going the GFS giveth and taketh away. We all seen it happen many times. I am hoping that these model runs do get there act together and we do get some decent winter weather before all is said and done. I look at the GFS this morning and like you said it has pull back on the cold also. But does show cold and maybe snow around the 18th time frame give or take a day or two. But GFS is notorious for showing one thing and then backing off, and to bring it back again.I was going to quiet taking nerve pills but, I guess I will have to double up here in the next week or two. If I was a weatherman, I would have already pitch my PC out the window many times this year. I know you can't go on a run or two, but man it been awful this year. Never seen nothing like it. Thanks. Still there will be plenty of cold in the NE, that where the cold air is this year. When you have such a high blocking out west it tends not to let the jet stream dig way far south. And sides more North of us. Hoping the runs will change. Time is running out. Thanks again.

Robert at weather south has a great analysis on facebook of why this winter hasn't worked out and why the models keep failing. It is pretty detailed, but realistic. If you want snow and ice down here in the Tennessee Valley though, you probably won't like his forecast, as he doesn't see this pattern changing anytime soon. I'm inclined to say I agree with him.

Screw it! Worst winter in recent memory. Ready for Spring, and I hope it's not boring either.

Yeah it's pretty bad, guess we will have to be happy with our few minor accums and dustings we have had here in Nov and Jan. We could also relive last year and hope for a better next year. It's just really hard for me to write off the rest of the winter; however, what he said makes sense, because it has been the case , and even as of today, continues to be the case. The models keep bringing a snowy pattern only to see it fall apart. Why would it change now? Why after a whole winter would it change? It could, but why would it. I've been fooled into believing it would change just like everyone else. I think I wish casted it into coming about, but I learned a lot from this winter. I'm jut going to sit back and take what comes with a smile. After all, it is just a bunch of ice on the ground. Haha, hardly worth getting angry over.

Hey guys!!!! I hadn't posted in awhile, work has been crazy 14-16 hr days...... But I don't think winter is over! The cold is coming back..... The models have sucked, so the flip flop continues, we can't go by run to run, as I do sometimes and pull my hair out, but I think our snow chances do increase over the next 3 week period. If we don't get any within that window, I'm done and will move on into severe weather season!!!

Looking at the 51 members off of the euro for the possibility of a storm next tue-wed time frame... There are a lot of diffrent placements of this low too the nw of us and they are se of us so therefore nothing is clear, but for fun! one of them will be right, so I picked this one

I would take that track and run with it to the bank! That's perfect for east and parts of middle TN

Agree. Cold and a low in that spot. Priceless.

Morning run of GFS coming in with a nice one..lol

Actually got a steady snow here this AM for the last 20min or so.

I love the way MRX describes what is probably the strongest outbreak of arctic air this whole winter...lol

Code:

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN TO KEEP THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE.

Yep! Only if tomorrow was the day of the event  ....

Lol Yeah MRX not too gung ho about the arctic air. Just kinda like. Yeah, it's winter. It gets cold in the winter, nothing to see here. You know what to do, move on along.

Say it isn't so 2 runs in row! The 12z gfs even stronger.... After all it is a week away! But here you go...

As you can see it pulls that warm nose right up Into se tn.. Within the next 2 to 3 weeks, I think we will have a real threat around here!

Just a quick note before I run, looked at the 12z Canadian (gem). It has the same storm but looks a little diffrent it has rain ahead of the artic front then as it passes though it stalls and a wave develops along it,then we get our snow!!!! I'll post some images of it later..

I am new here and don't know much about reading models though I know it's way to early to know what's going to happen I would like your guys input. I am leaving for Gatlinburg next Tuesday and the cabin we will be in is up on the mountain so can you tell me as of right now what it looks like for snow there next week because I am kinda nervous!

Nice to have you here! We will update often, its best to keep checking back. I will say the models are in good agreement, which is odd for them all to be about the same this far out, with the way they have preformed this winter.... The gfs and euro are real close and the Canadian is a little further north with the heavy snow... As you stated it is hard to say right now, with it a week away a lot could change, so it could be just wet or all white  .. Here is the euro...

With that map of the euro, as of right now your looking at 8 to 12 inches of snow...

Looks good for me to. Maybe a 5 to 8. Wish one of them would come true.

It's nice to hear no matter which station, website, or model you look at next week's system looks like it might be very good.

Love the 12z suite of models. Did not like 18z GFS at all. Of course the euro and cmc don't run at 18z. There is potential, but we need to hope the euro is right, and maybe trends colder. 18z GFS went way north.