Winter Storm Threat 20-22

I would expect prolonged freezing rain in your area

Great..that's what I'm afraid of

What's everyone think winter storm warning or ice storm warning or 50/50.

Ice storm warning most likely

Hard to say!! The models are still trending flatter with this system, which a little colder than previous runs... I would say winter storm warning just to cover the diffrent precip types... Looking at some data its showing 1-2 inches of snow, half inch of sleet and .25 of frz rain... Very hard forecast for this one, for the first half of the event..

If they issue a ice storm warning it will most likely be after the event starts and they see where the most frz rain will occur.....

Then again I am at the base of the smokies, it will probably be all ice for me

Not all ice. Too much WAA. Lots of gulf air coming up our way.

Winter Storm warnings posted... In the discussion they spoke about possibly changing those to ice storm earnings for those east of 65. Won't change to just liquid rain until Saturday morning. Looking like 2 inches of snow with up to 1/2" of ice accumulation

Already setting at my projected low for the night..... 8 degrees... This system I think will still end up colder and further se than the models show. They have been trending that way all day! We will see

Dude nothing personal. I love weather just as you obviously do as well but I don't want another ice storm. We lost our power for 3 days on the last storm and my wife is pregnant. So this is one of those times I am hoping the track shifts northwest. I am like you I rarely root against storms but this one is different for me

I understand!!!! All I can do is post the facts..... I have done without power for 2 wks before. Thankfully I was on the sleet side of the last storm... But the models don't handle these type setups very well.... I stated in some very earlier post that I thought the later in the season our chances for ice would increase, I don't think this will be the last one.... I pray you guys stay safe and are prepared... Congrats on the new little one soon to be! ( by the way I have a wife and 4 children  )

Just a quick note! That has been the trends of the models today..... But who knows, maybe you will end up with all rain...

Well I don't think an all rain situation is likely at all. I just want the transition to be quick and have no CAD. How much have the models moved the low southeast?

So whats everyone thinking this morning. Everyone seems to think this has tracked north and west and East TN is going to receive mostly all rain??

underdawg45 wrote:So whats everyone thinking this morning. Everyone seems to think this has tracked north and west and East TN is going to receive mostly all rain??

Thats my take..maybe a little snow sleet/freezing rain to start but very quickly over to plain rain!!

Toot anything with any substance coming down the pipe in the future?

underdawg45 wrote:Toot anything with any substance coming down the pipe in the future?

Nothing really catching my eye just yet

The HRRR has it changing to rain in McMinnville by 6am

It looks as though anywhere to my north into my east there may be some CAD.

The National Weather Service has extended winter weather advisories through tonight for places like Birmingham where the temperature has yet to even come close to 32°. It is currently 24° in Birmingham and places like Montgomery are still below freezing. Just a thought that this could have implications for us on how quickly the atmosphere warms.

It has begun to change over to freezing rain here

Snowing in Campbell County

Picked up 4.25 inches of snow overnight and this AM. Very little sleet or freezing rain in it at all. Amazing considering we weren't supposed to get but 1-2 tops from this. Going by the short range models we shouldn't have even gotten a dusting haha. Crazy huh

Jed33 wrote:Picked up 4.25 inches of snow overnight and this AM. Very little sleet or freezing rain in it at all. Amazing considering we weren't supposed to get but 1-2 tops from this. Going by the short range models we shouldn't have even gotten a dusting haha. Crazy huh

Sweet Jed...Congrats!!...too warm up here in the mtns for anything but plain rain