Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-07, 9:44 pm

Long range looks boring!!!!!!

by **Toot** 2011-12-07, 10:50 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Long range looks boring!!!!!!

Ya...it does.... No high lattitude blocking tends to make for unexciting weather during winter..looks to stay fair and cool for a few days. Next system will probably be a lakes cutter type...this one would have been also if wasnt for the PV dropping down towards the great lakes...since that big PV was near the lakes this one had to go around it. Hopefully the next lakes cutter/apps runner sends the positive/neutral NAO a packing

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-08, 10:21 am

From what i have been hearing/seeing and just overall in general this fall so far has been way warmer and just not a good look coming onto winter with such a warm trend. But last year was warm to in november. But by now we had several "bigger" systems on the long range and tons of cold also. And now we dont we actually have a warming trend further out there in december.. Sad

So is there a chance that this winter turns out to be a big disappointment for middle tennessee? (as west tennessee has already got more then they usually do the whole year loooolll) And if it turns out to be a below normal cold/snow then its really going to hurt way more then it usually would since it was cold and somewhat snowy last year (although i personally hated last years weather cause northern middle tennessee got left out of the big snows over and over...).

by Guest 2011-12-08, 10:34 am

Skillsweather wrote:From what i have been hearing/seeing and just overall in general this fall so far has been way warmer and just not a good look coming onto winter with such a warm trend. But last year was warm to in november. But by now we had several "bigger" systems on the long range and tons of cold also. And now we dont we actually have a warming trend further out there in december.. So is there a chance that this winter turns out to be a big disappointment for middle tennessee? (as west tennessee has already got more then they usually do the whole year loooolll) And if it turns out to be a below normal cold/snow then its really going to hurt way more then it usually would since it was cold and somewhat snowy last year (although i personally hated last years weather cause northern middle tennessee got left out of the big snows over and over...).

While worry could ensue about these facts, I'm keeping my hopes up for January, when Tn usually gets the coldest/snowiest.

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 4:56 pm

Skillsweather wrote:From what i have been hearing/seeing and just overall in general this fall so far has been way warmer

I would say overall tempwise this fall will average out near normal to below normal

Skillsweather wrote:
and just not a good look coming onto winter with such a warm trend. But last year was warm to in november. But by now we had several "bigger" systems on the long range and tons of cold also.

If we are talking about the state of Tennnessee we are actually ahead of last year with two snowstorms in west Tennessee already.

Skillsweather wrote:
And now we dont we actually have a warming trend further out there in december

No...there's really no compelling evidence of a cold or warm trend. I would be careful when dealing with the long range models this year...I dont know if it's the nina screwing with them or what...but they have been advertising several warm spells that never seem to verify..a safe call right now would be normal conditions...and if you were to believe the CMC ensembles...there is a very powerful cold shot heading our way.

Skillsweather wrote:
So is there a chance that this winter turns out to be a big disappointment for middle tennessee?

Sure there is...but there's also an equal chance of a great winter. Nothing is behaving like expected but we are not torching either....once again the safest bet at this point is for a normal winter.

You might find this an interesting read

https://tootsweatherspot.forumotion.com/t29-is-winter-over-very-weird-pattern-going-on

by Guest 2011-12-08, 5:04 pm

Lolz.. Toot the Weather psychologist haha

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 5:16 pm

Oh yeah....there may be the need for a thread soon...the timeframe of December the 16th thru the 20th is a wintry type setup on the ensembles...maybe a southern slider type system Twisted Evil

by **John1122** 2011-12-08, 5:37 pm

The teleconnections are certainly depressing. NAO and AO are forecast to be positive for at least two more weeks. And not just mildly so either. And the models have actually went from showing them as too positive in their forecast vs what verified to them verifying even more positive than forecast.

The PNA looks to head into the negative as we approach Christmas as well.

Not the best combo for wintry weather in this area.

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 5:46 pm

John1122 wrote:The teleconnections are certainly depressing.

They are...but they havent stopped us from getting cold shots and what goes up (NAO/AO) must come down Smile

I also think as the polar jet shifts further south for the gist of winter, the stormtrack will also go south with it and you will see these Apps runners/lakes cutters turn into Miller a's and southern sliders...I just hope the cold dont suppress them too far south Mad

by **John1122** 2011-12-08, 5:51 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
John1122 wrote:The teleconnections are certainly depressing.
They are...but they havent stopped us from getting cold shots and what goes up (NAO/AO) must come down I also think as the polar jet shifts further south for the gist of winter, the stormtrack will also go south with it and you will see these Apps runners/lakes cutters turn into Miller a's and southern sliders...I just hope the cold dont suppress them too far south

I am hoping that takes place. We will still get cold shots with positive AO/NAO. They will just be 1-3 day cold shots. And cold air that is easily displaced by approaching storms.

Much like last winter pretty much went bizzaro on most forecasts, this one is as well.

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 6:02 pm

The the 12zGFS ensembles are hinting at this but the CMC ensembles show a nice setup also around 16th to 20th...and I just read about the euro now showing something similar on DT's FB page

This is from DT's FB page...good synoptic guy..

NOTIFICATION BIG CHANGE in 12z MODELS... 12z euro and to a lessor degree shows an INTERESTING change in their day 9 day 10 maps over N America-- with the day 10 euro strongly indicating SECS event DAY 11.. DEC 19... Both Models drive new cold front into the Midwest and Northeast DEC 117-18 bringing in fresh cold air ... then strong energy is southern Jet stream crashes into s CALIF DEC 16 into the great Basin s Rockies DEC 18. Now if.... *** IF *** IF*** the cold air holds when this Low comes east there COULD be 1st True winter storm of the season for much of the Lower Midwest and Northeast

A SECS is Dt's coined term of Sig East Coast Storm Laughing

This timeframe also holds alot of potential for here also..i'll be watching it

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-08, 6:47 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

and if you were to believe the CMC ensembles...there is a very powerful cold shot heading our way.

But, haven't you said that about like 2-3 other systems too? I remember you talking about 1 in mid November that was going to change us to winter early then another one in late November. And were still above normal so I don't see how this fall with only 13 days left will be normal or below. Also, Only areas I see getting there normal snowfall is eastern Tennessee and maybe southern..(on past trends) Ofc the snowfall part is anyone's guess really cause it just takes 1 big snow storm to make that and you can get one of them even on warmer then average winters.

by Guest 2011-12-08, 6:51 pm

Skillsweather wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

and if you were to believe the CMC ensembles...there is a very powerful cold shot heading our way.

But, haven't you said that about like 2-3 other systems too? I remember you talking about 1 in mid November that was going to change us to winter early then another one in late November. And were still above normal so I don't see how this fall with only 13 days left will be normal or below. Also, Only areas I see getting there normal snowfall is eastern Tennessee and maybe southern..(on past trends) Ofc the snowfall part is anyone's guess really cause it just takes 1 big snow storm to make that and you can get one of them even on warmer then average winters.

Well, seeing as West Tn has already seen two snows so far this year, I'd imagine that they're right on track for an average Winter this year, more so than E. Tn

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 6:59 pm

Skillsweather wrote:
But, haven't you said that about like 2-3 other systems too?

I'm not saying it..the cmc ensembles are..lol

Skillsweather wrote:
I remember you talking about 1 in mid November that was going to change us to winter early

Well skills there was a winter storm in November..id say thats early for winter wx to be happening.

Skillsweather wrote:
And were still above normal

What? Its certainly not above normal here!!

Skillsweather wrote:
so I don't see how this fall with only 13 days left will be normal or below.

Im talking about Meteorological fall which is already over..September was near normal tempwise... ALL of October was below normal in the SE..One week in November was above normal...the rest of it was near normal... that gives you a normal to below normal fall.

Skillsweather wrote:
cause it just takes 1 big snow storm to make that and you can get one of them even on warmer then average winters.

Yep...I agree...This is why you cant look at unfavorable teleconnections and call the rest of winter off.

by **Toot** 2011-12-08, 7:19 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Oh yeah....there may be the need for a thread soon...the timeframe of December the 16th thru the 20th is a wintry type setup on the ensembles...maybe a southern slider type system

Speaking of the devil...lol...18z GFS

Its still out there but the pattern supports it...(I talked about this pattern where there is blocking off the east coast and you get these over running events)

... and it has some ensemble support.

Id still take it very lightly at this point though...just keep in mind..as long as we keep the PV in eastern canada we have a cold air source for these type of events.

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-08, 8:01 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Oh yeah....there may be the need for a thread soon...the timeframe of December the 16th thru the 20th is a wintry type setup on the ensembles...maybe a southern slider type system

Toot you just made my day a whole lot better even with the mention of this lol. cheers

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-08, 8:10 pm

looking very interested, the dates i mentioned last night/ as tom would say. very ogasmic

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-08, 8:12 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:looking very interested, the dates i mentioned last night/ as tom would say. very ogasmic

Hey Bruce, wanna join me in the chat room to talk about the upcoming pattern?

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-08, 8:14 pm

yeh give me a second buddy.

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-08, 10:55 pm

it will be interesting to see how the euro starts to lean... kind of going with a lakes cutter ... its battle of the models...

by **joereb1** 2011-12-08, 10:58 pm

Man, I pray that this comes to pass. As I said before, my family and I go up to the Gatlinburg area from Florida every year around the holidays. We will be there on 12/17-22. Hopefully right in the bullseye!!!! Laughing

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-09, 12:47 am

Interesting article posted to the Shelby N.C. weather blog entitled "What's the Chances of a Very Deep Snowstorm this Winter?"

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/2011/12/whats-chances-of-very-deep-snowstorm.html

Excerpt:

To put things simply, the country, especially the Deep South and Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, are in the midst of an extremely active weather pattern. I've looked at old synoptic weather charts and I honestly don't see any comparison to what we're currently enduring. Time and time again strong upper lows or major "cutoff" storms are swirling through the South land and occasionally up the East Coast. We have been very wet here around Shelby and the mountains of NC and especially wet on the other side of the Appalachians this Fall and now into December. You have to go back to 2003 to find a comparably consistent wet year for most of Cleveland County, where it was consistently "wet" or atleast average. And that says something about our long term drought, especially in upper South Carolina and southern Rutherford and southern Cleveland County. Yet we've been at the center of many major weather events all year long, and if you're a snow lover, here's some news: We've had 3 above normal snow years in a row. The last couple of seasons have been pretty easy to forecast well in advance, but this current season is much more tricky. We don't have sustained cold, and we don't have Gulf lows tracking our way. However, we do have many, and I mean many upper lows that are "cut off" from the main flow. And as we're heading deeper into the colder months, already we are seeing signs of those swirling cutoff's drop snow. Its happened twice now in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, and its' not even Winter! If you go back to some of Shelby's biggest snowstorms lately, they mostly come from strong upper lows. February 2004 and March 2009 (yes there is a huge gap between storms) were both strong upper lows that tracked in the right spot.
If you do the math, our odds are upped in a MAJOR way this year, simply because of the shear numbers of these systems that are in the flow. And there's still no end to them. The GFS model, which has been far superior in our neck of the woods this year (ever since just after the Christmas 2010 storm) continues to hone in on these things. They're still lined up as far as the eye can see, and just when the models try to overdevelop the warmth in the Southeast (yes we can get a day or 2 of above normal), the storm comes through and keeps temps cold, pulls down the colder air and turns rain to snow in spots.

by **John1122** 2011-12-09, 1:38 am

Without blocking and major cold funnelling down via a negative AO it's just so hard to keep the warm air out of here. It's really pretty hard even with good blocking for many areas, especially in East Tennessee. Some of the best negative AO/NAO readings with good cold air were still often overpowered by the dreaded warm finger even during the past couple of years.

Just being honest, right now these systems look a lot like Fall 2007-March 2009 when the GFS would show nice storms for the south in the 6-10 day range only to give in to the ole NW trend over the last 2-3 days and the storms almost invariably ended up as GLC.

The only good snow in the SE from that several year time frame was from the bowling ball ULL that rolled from West Tennessee to North Georgia. Those are great if you are lucky enough to get under one. But their path is narrow and you have to get very lucky to get the heavy snow vs the powerful miller A type systems.

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-09, 2:09 am

Don't really know were to put this so ill just post it here move it were ever idc lol..
But, talk about south Tennessee in the bulls eye again.. Give me a break.... I guess northern Tennessee is just out of luck for bigger snow for the next decade.. Looks that way..
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion Rhvak9

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion Rhvak9

by **John1122** 2011-12-09, 2:12 am

Skillsweather wrote:Don't really know were to put this so ill just post it here move it were ever idc lol..
But, talk about south Tennessee in the bulls eye again.. Give me a break.... I guess northern Tennessee is just out of luck for bigger snow for the next decade.. Looks that way..

I would take that map in a heartbeat, it's 3+ inches for the entire state. But you will honestly be able to knock me out with a feather if that show anything remotely close to that a week from now.