Re: Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-06, 1:56 pm

Snowmania wrote:I think the more appropriate questions is "what have you seen to suggest a break in the current pattern?"

NAO isnt going in the tank anytime soon. If you notice all the "big pattern changes" are all about 300 hours out...and then they change. It's going to go to mid month, to early feb, ...alot of hope casting.

Not to say plenty of places cant get there avg this year. But is that really a good winter to have 1 late event while the rest of your winter has sucked? 2 days out of 4 months dont make my winter.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 18 25ow6xl

Fair enough, but lately even the most skeptical of mets have been touting the real possibility of pattern change with a colder January ahead. These changes are not just being noticed at the 300 hour mark, but as soon as next week. Who knows what will happen but I've just not seen much evidence of a fizzle lately from the data or from people analyzing it that are much smarter than I am on the subject.

by **Toot** 2012-01-06, 1:56 pm

Snowmania wrote:I think the more appropriate questions is "what have you seen to suggest a break in the current pattern?"

There are several things that has turned or is turning (however one wants to look at it) the old pattern around. I dont have time to go into them right now but maybe I will get back to you this evening but the AO/NAO are both expected to trend into negative territory contrary to what you may have heard

They're both right around neutral and are expected to keep trending downward
Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 18 Gens_ao_06_thumb

by **Toot** 2012-01-06, 2:12 pm

Everybody get ready whistle

by Guest 2012-01-06, 2:14 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Everybody get ready

WTF??? lol.... this guy is a nutcase!

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-06, 2:15 pm

LMAO that video is made of pure distilled awesome.

lol!

by **snowman72** 2012-01-06, 2:19 pm

Toot,

Ihave to hand to you, you can dig up some pretty funny shit. This one is the best. LOL LOL HUGE SNOWSTORM

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-06, 2:29 pm

Robert in regards to the 12z Euro:

I'm used to doing this with GFS long range runs, but now we can do it with ECMWF too. Here's the day 6 through 10 animation at 850. You can see that this is really the first time this year that things up north get shaken up in a fast, hard way. So we have pretty good agreement that things are about to get in motion, maybe its tied with the strat. warming event, but either way, it's looking likely on all models and ensembles. Whats encouraging now is the warming of Greenland and Alaska simultaneously. Both have been cold and what made it so hard for us to get cold so far. In the last image you can see the core of the cold wanting to drop due south, after the first cold airmass (and blizzard on day 10 for the Upper Midwest)...so that could end up being a truely memorable arctic outbreak in the US...but its too far out to speculate yet.

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-06, 2:54 pm

Toot, your video. LMAO.

God, I hate to laugh at him, but I can't help it. Bless his heart.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-06, 3:06 pm

"bless your heart" is totally the polite, southern way to make fun or gossip about someone.

HUGE SNOWSTORM!

by Guest 2012-01-06, 3:23 pm

jmundie wrote:"bless your heart" is totally the polite, southern way to make fun or gossip about someone.

HUGE SNOWSTORM!

Bless your heart, J!

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-06, 7:16 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Everybody get ready

hey, i recognize that dude... thats don sutherland. seriously yak

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-06, 11:32 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i have been gathering my thoughts lately, i know i have been quite the past couple days... but here it goes. there is no doubt there is going to be soe colder air, i am not seing the cold like 85 but pretty cold none the less... but what has me concerned is, long range models want to pop up a se ridge a fairly stout one at that. and yeah it looks like a true se ridge this time... and with these bitter cold artic blasts lurking, its going to be interested to see just how far south they can penetrate the ridge,particular the later half of this month... the pattern seems like its fixing to get very active on top of that. keep a eye out for time frame 20th to rest of the month...getting a deep gut feeling we may be starring down a barrel for a major ice storm... cause the artic air mass just barely gets through us and stalls.. that will put us in a layer of shallow cold... then comes the waves from the south stalled front, than you are looking at major trouble... hopefully we can get these fronts to go on thorugh towards the gulf and we will be looking at a major snow producer than... but i see the first scenero playing out mor likely... than later this month into february... we change gears... i think we see the artic fronts get hung up around the i44 corridor and with throughs setting up further west, that should cause more of the systems to phase earlier and cut toward our nw and some of these systems may be quite strong, cause february produce more dymanic low pressure systems... i thnk areas like eastern arki, west and middle tennesse, north miss. and mo. boot hill need to be on the outlook for a big severe weather outbreak. this nina is going anywhere untill later spring... i really think the weather is fixing to get crazy.. anything from a ice storm, snow storm to a big time severe event.. and that what i have been seeing after looking hard at ensembles and long range stuff. i just have a hard time seeing winter really setting in for a period of long time yall.

Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion - Page 18 2agqovd

by **jazzy** 2012-01-06, 11:48 pm

I've seen some people on the other sites are thinking that there wont be a pattern change as thought recently. What do you guys think? Are you still thinking around the middle of the month there will be a change?

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-07, 8:57 am

Gosh, dang Stove! How many pictures do you have of Don? Are you a stalkarazzi?

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-07, 9:33 am

Latest GFS is not very cold.

Lastest EURO not very cold either, exactly like the GFS.

Latest CMC is exactly what I want.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-07, 10:57 am

Adam2014 wrote:Latest GFS is not very cold.

Lastest EURO not very cold either, exactly like the GFS.

Latest CMC is exactly what I want.

and that is what has me worried... i know models been struggling some... but in reality, they have been kind of right also... just two weeks ago we said models were struggling when it showed warm, well, i hit nearly 70 yesterday and looks like going into mid 60 s today with cloud cover... ensembles look some colder, but it never develops a true greenland block in my eyes. until we get some decent blocking looks on models, we are looking at just transient cold shots though some may be colder than others at times... hopefully models wii catch on, the cmc has been giving us the most love... but its been lousy lately.. actually the gfs has been pretty acurate, if you just stop n think about it... not trying to be a debbie downer... things need to start falling into place soon folks. or this cold pattern chcange just may end up being talk... lets hope the 12z suites gives us some hope in the longer range. rock on

by **skillsweather** 2012-01-07, 2:00 pm

If we dont have no winter would that mean our summer would be hotter? cause it wont have to warm up a real cold ground if you get what im saying? Like be warmer spring that leads to a hot hot summer like that one year with temps in 100's alot lol. I really hope not I hate summer heat.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-07, 2:08 pm

Skillsweather wrote:If we dont have no winter would that mean our summer would be hotter? cause it wont have to warm up a real cold ground if you get what im saying? Like be warmer spring that leads to a hot hot summer like that one year with temps in 100's alot lol. I really hope not I hate summer heat.

it all depends what enso stage were entering this summer, personally im rooting for a weak elnino developing by mid summer... that would lead us to a possible wetter cooler summer... and a block buster winter for 20012-20013. time will tell

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-07, 2:21 pm

Man, watching the models the past two days has been a roller coaster ride. I've never seen such wild flip flopping before. Apparently the inconsistency is due to them trying to deal with the the pattern change occurring in a few days and not being able to sort out what will happen after that. This is the most confusion I've ever seen among models and those analyzing them.

I miss the days of having some actual storms on the horizon to track. Most of the variation last winter was "is she gonna trend NW this run?". Now it's "I wonder if it'll be 60 degrees in Canada this run or 32 in Orlando?". Interesting times but frustrating none the less.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-07, 2:34 pm

i do like the cmc... it has a miller a system, which does the whole state of tennessee some good with snow. gfs is sucky

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-07, 2:50 pm

Interesting pattern change article by Wes Junker in the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/a-pattern-change-probably-yes-but-what-it-means-for-dc-uncertain/2012/01/06/gIQAKgcWfP_blog.html#pagebreak

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-07, 8:48 pm

CMC shows an arctic outbreak.

The GFS does not.

This is crazy, what is the EURO showing?

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-07, 9:25 pm

Adam2014 wrote:CMC shows an arctic outbreak.

The GFS does not.

This is crazy, what is the EURO showing?

the euro isnt to far off from the cmc adam... doesnt have the miller a. but cold air comes in after the ull passes

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-07, 9:42 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:CMC shows an arctic outbreak.

The GFS does not.

This is crazy, what is the EURO showing?
the euro isnt to far off from the cmc adam... doesnt have the miller a. but cold air comes in after the ull passes

The GFS is really showin something odd, I don't understand it.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-07, 10:33 pm

Frank Straight's latest video on AccuPro gave some good insight on this madness for late next week. He talks about the Euro's bias for holding energy back and doesn't think it's showing the correct path and timing of the moisture moving in. While of course the GFS is showing a bomb, but not enough cold air in place for much snow. His thinking is that the Euro may be correct with it's depiction of serious cold air and the GFS may be correct with the moisture. He says this is looking like possibly the best setup for the south to get some serious snow.

I'm starting to get a little bit pumped.

popcorn

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