Re: Early FEB snow threat

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-22, 2:27 pm

I swear the models are screwing with us so much, I am going to stop looking at them and just see what happens.

by **John1122** 2012-01-23, 12:34 am

Ensembles vs OP battle still.

OP says blah, ensembles say meh, maybe.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-23, 9:16 am

Euro text data has an inch of snow at TYS and about 1.5 at TRI on the 29th. It'll change a 1000 times but it's been so long since I've seen even a flake on there I thought I'd point this out.

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 9:21 am

I have a very high confidence in snow somewhere in TN during this peiod...several great signals showing up for it.

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-23, 10:03 am

Stovepipe wrote:Euro text data has an inch of snow at TYS and about 1.5 at TRI on the 29th. It'll change a 1000 times but it's been so long since I've seen even a flake on there I thought I'd point this out.

An inch sounds good! I just want one time to look outside and see the grass and trees with snow on them. I love how when it snows, it's so quiet. Please, just an inch or two, and I'll be happy.

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 10:16 am

12zNAM has the Cold coe ULL heading in our direction

Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 F84

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-23, 12:30 pm

Euro bout to roll

Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 EuroTruck

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 1:20 pm

12z CMC is very close to wash

Nogaps is very similar
Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 F132

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 1:23 pm

12z ensembles

Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 F120

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 1:36 pm

by **jmundie** 2012-01-23, 1:48 pm

Euro looks pretty good at 168... hard to tell if the cold will push out just in time for that precip.

If the cold can lock, this might be your southern slider toot

Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 F168

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-23, 2:50 pm

Looks like a pretty decent shot at snow at ~~222~~ 210 as well.

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 3:42 pm

The euro at 210 and 216 is wash

by **ballpark** 2012-01-23, 4:18 pm

Its great to see this winter storm make it within 180 hours now.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-23, 4:22 pm

Toot wrote:The euro at 210 and 216 is

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 4:27 pm

jmundie wrote:

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Temps are borderline...but the cold trend with this storm is what im noticing. I just hope it dont trend any further north and west.

by Guest 2012-01-23, 4:32 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:The euro at 210 and 216 is

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Usually, the temps are borderline for us during big time events anyways J. Plus, beggers cannot be choosers this year.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-23, 5:26 pm

Toot wrote:
jmundie wrote:

What bothers me is that temps appear to be borderline for all but the mountains.

Temps are borderline...but the cold trend with this storm is what im noticing. I just hope it dont trend any further north and west.

GFS is WAY further north with the same system, but I imagine that is because of its progressive bias.

Hoping we start seeing something like this. Gosh, if that storm could even dig just a little more, it would be a beaut.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-23, 5:29 pm

A couple of teh GFS ensemble members see this threat.

180
Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 F180

192

by **John1122** 2012-01-23, 6:42 pm

We are right on the borderline.

Early FEB snow threat - Page 3 00zgfs11

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 7:36 pm

I hope the 18z was just a fluke

by **snowman72** 2012-01-23, 7:42 pm

Pls explain toot

by **John1122** 2012-01-23, 8:05 pm

The storm is still there, just about 150 miles to far north for us right now.

Looks like more rain with cold chasing unless that changes.

by **John1122** 2012-01-23, 8:07 pm

by **Toot** 2012-01-23, 8:15 pm

snowman72 wrote:Pls explain toot

John just explained it well..the storm trended NW some when the trend was more south and colder. Anyways im betting on a track closer to the euro due to the existing -nao.

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