Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 9:03 am

Euro has crippling/major Ice Storm for parts of west TN Monday
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat Xczs0

People in western TN really need to monitor this..this could be pretty bad

by **snowdog** 2013-01-10, 11:59 am

12z GFS continues the possibility of a bad ice storm across western middle TN. People in those areas may want to start paying attention a little closer to this being a real possibility.

by **juju** 2013-01-10, 12:52 pm

This weekend torch

Guess, Im going to dig out the flip flops and bermuda shorts.. puke

by **Jed33** 2013-01-10, 5:09 pm

Today's 12Z Euro is warmer than 0z from last night, but it's ensembles are very close to each other. It would make many folks on here in W TN and those along I-40 from Nashville to Knoxville N pretty happy if it verified like it looks like. Of course it will change, but it's nice to look at. Unfortunately, it says sorry S Mid and SE TN, I'm not giving you much at this time.

by **Jed33** 2013-01-10, 8:23 pm

My phrasing was bad on that post. Yeah, thats what I was saying, I 40 N special on 12z euro. Euro weeklies are rockin too from what I hear. Weeks 2, 3, and a new one now, week 4 evidently look great.

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 8:30 pm

I had know doubts and knew the cold was coming a week ago..but people thought I was wrong because each garbage run of the GFS in la la land suggested otherwise ..you cant take model runs in the long range serious but you cant get these weenies to understand that slap

by **snowman72** 2013-01-10, 8:35 pm

What about K-Town, looks to be close. I40 splits it.

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 8:39 pm

I imagine this one if it verifies may overperform due to wetbulbing

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 8:40 pm

I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 11:21 pm

Im beginning to think we have a 2009/10 like winter aheade of us over the next two months Feb-mid March. MMW events are known for dominating the mid lattitudes with much lower than normal heights and they also induce strong to severe periods of -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO (Per Kocin Ku correlations)

by **Reb** 2013-01-10, 11:33 pm

its always 2-3 weeks away. same as last year burn

by **Toot** 2013-01-10, 11:44 pm

Reb wrote:its always 2-3 weeks away. same as last year

No we are talking about next weekend..which is a week away stupid

by **Reb** 2013-01-11, 12:27 am

wont believe it until i see it at a closer range than that lol

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 1:04 am

Toot wrote: There isnt much doubt in my mind that it will probably be the coldest airmass we have seen since 2010. The 12z EURO now shows the massive vortex moving southward like the gfs package

12zEuro temps in NE TN posssibly in single digits! Havent seen that since 009/10 winter
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat Nlx1rr

Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat Nlx1rr

I have a feeling there will be a couple of cliipers bringing more even cold air than progged above as the Vortex charges south

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 1:08 am

juju wrote: This weekend
Guess, Im going to dig out the flip flops and bermuda shorts..

Lol..me too juju. Maybe even do some fishing..but there is a rude awakening coming when old man winter slams us back to treality late next week

by **Reb** 2013-01-11, 1:08 am

woo hoo cold dry air! well maybe some clipper moisture that will just downslope the valley pals

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 7:48 am

If someone wants to make a storm thread for this wave of LP it would be a good idea

Arctic front/wave of LP number 2- model graphics/disco

0Z CMC Precip type
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat I_nw_g1_EST_2013011100_091

Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat I_nw_g1_EST_2013011100_091

CMC freezing rain accums
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat ZR_000-120_0000

CMC snowfall
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat SN_000-120_0000

High Def euro graphics
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0z euro surface map at hr 96 (NOTICE THE 1033Mb High to the north)
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat Hwigqu

Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat Hwigqu

0z Euro 850 temps hr 96
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat 29enadd

Euro min Surface temps for hr 96
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat 2i8koc7

0z euro also has a bullseye of 7-8 inches of snow in southern mid TN
Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat 34h8ck4

Note- Starting next run of the euro these wxbell graphics will only be posted in the members only section. So if you want to see this threat unfold via the wxbell graphics you will need to be a member and logged in to view the "Memebers only winter storm graphics thread"

by **snowdog** 2013-01-11, 9:17 am

Toot, many thanks for the graphics. Much appreciated. pals

My head is spinning right now trying to figure out how this is going to play out. The Mets are going to make their money over the next week. Big arctic air mass just to our northwest pushing up against a huge ridge to our southeast that doesn't want to budge, with wave after wave riding up the through the battle zone. Someone is going to get a nice surprise winter event. My guess right now would be somewhere between Nashville and Paducah (maybe a little further NW).

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 9:29 am

Your welcome Snowdog..I went ahead and split these posts into a new thread to keep confusion down and the winter disco thread open for future pattern disco. A couple of posts were lost in the process..sorry about that yikes

by **snowdog** 2013-01-11, 10:11 am

Looking at the 12z NAM snowfall map you posted...I'm quite surprised that we are now looking at a possible snowfall instead of a freezing rain event (in BNA area). The upper levels were quite warm, going from yesterday's skew-t's. It would take some time to cool down the upper layers. So I don't know if I'm buying the snow just yet. I still think rain and freezing rain are the best bets right now.

by **jmundie** 2013-01-11, 10:28 am

I'm with snowdog - I see the warm layer between 700 and 850... I'm not really sure what to do with that. I don't know if the snow algos are just going haywire and are poorly programed (I doubt it) but this is certainly a tough forecast.

If the GFS comes back on board with precip and holds serve or falls on temps, then its game on for something frozen for sure.

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 10:40 am

Well..finally Mundie decides to grace us with his thoughts. Ive missed your posts and opinions Justin. I also totally agree with you and snowdog on the temp profiles Smile

Its a tricky setup tho with the Arctic air/high to the west and north.

Dont be a stranger Mundie sunny

by **snowdog** 2013-01-11, 11:05 am

jmundie wrote:I'm with snowdog - I see the warm layer between 700 and 850... I'm not really sure what to do with that. I don't know if the snow algos are just going haywire and are poorly programed (I doubt it) but this is certainly a tough forecast.

If the GFS comes back on board with precip and holds serve or falls on temps, then its game on for something frozen for sure.

The trend is currently our friend here in Middle-TN. This has gotten progressively colder in the last couple of days. If the modeling is correct and that big Arctic high is sitting to our northwest, the cold air will easily bleed southeast at the lower levels and we are easily looking at a messy ice situation. If the high pushes a bit further southeast a bit quicker and the mid levels can cool quickly enough we may turnover to snow for a time. Tricky forecast, it will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.