Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
+18
Mrgolf
etnwx
secleveland
tom23
tennessee storm09
Stovepipe
Eric
emcf30
Adam2014
MSR_93
ballpark
jmundie
Reb
snowman72
Jed33
juju
snowdog
Toot
22 posters
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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Well..the cmc insists on more of asnow situation and continues to come east..almost leaving west TN out of the action now. Just goes to show how this pattern is crucially changing very quickly
And even gets east TN into the action now
And even gets east TN into the action now
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Been creepin on this forum for a while now, decided to make an account and get involved. Hopefully the trend doesnt go so far south/east it takes middle tn out of the picture, but the history of the models this season ain't to promising
MSR_93- Member
- Posts : 6
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Dang Toot, wish I had more time to post right now! Surprised this thing is trending East.
Jed33- Admin
- Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 28
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.
I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam
The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Now that's a tad chilly
emcf30- Member
- Posts : 5
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
Um im not the one over there talking to him. Thats you and that is your buddy
emcf30 wrote:Now that's a tad chilly
No doubt
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Toot wrote:Um im not the one over there talking to him. Thats you and that is your buddy
Nice. LOL!!
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
Tad bit unfair don't you think?
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 100
Join date : 2012-02-19
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Toot wrote:I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067
I see not much has changed around here. You're running a top notch organization Toot, keep up the good work. Is there a thread for just call maps? I'd love to see a collection of the artwork you've put out there for this season.
Toodles!
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Stovepipe wrote:Toot wrote:I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067
I see not much has changed around here. You're running a top notch organization Toot, keep up the good work. Is there a thread for just call maps? I'd love to see a collection of the artwork you've put out there for this season.
Toodles!
Reb- Admin
- Posts : 745
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Maryville, TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
You can find all my artwork on my FB blog Stove
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Toot wrote:You can find all my artwork on my FB blog Stove
Awesome, I'll check it out, thanks!
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
now would you expect anything different... personally, i think that is considered trolling . lolsnowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
tennessee storm09 wrote:now would you expect anything different... personally, i think that is considered trolling . lolsnowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
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Jed33- Admin
- Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
So the NAM was interesting for middleTN tonight. Huge ice storm still showing up from around hour 60 on. Skew-t's show ground temps right at freezing. This run shows no possibility of snow. Warm layer is too "thick" in the mid-levels.
snowdog- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 855
Join date : 2011-12-14
Age : 46
Location : Mount Juliet, TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Toot what kind of amounts our looking at with CMC that being shown.
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
The should be light but models are ahving a tuff time right now
Meanwhile..surface temps from the 0z GFS vortex....you do the math
Meanwhile..surface temps from the 0z GFS vortex....you do the math
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.Toot wrote:Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.
I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam
The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
Adam2014- Founding Member
- Posts : 1424
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 28
Location : Lawrenceburg,TN
Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat
Adam2014 wrote:I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.Toot wrote:Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.
I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam
The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
And I believe it will trend to a snowstorm... what does it matter what we "think" could happen at this point? lol... the models are all we have at this juncture
tom23- Founding Member
- Posts : 298
Join date : 2012-07-06
Age : 30
Location : Jefferson City, TN
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