Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

snowdog wrote:Moderate sleet just went through the downtown Nashville area. No rain at all. Mostly sleet with some graupel/snow mixed in.

Toot wrote:This is a conspiracy!! The whole state is under a WWA except for us poor old east Tennesseans. A conspiracy I tell you!

Toot wrote:This is a conspiracy!! The whole state is under a WWA except for us poor old east Tennesseans. A conspiracy I tell you!

Code:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0512 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO NERN KY
 
  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
 
  VALID 142312Z - 150415Z
 
  SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WITH
  RATES OF AROUND 0.05 IN/HR...WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
 
  DISCUSSION...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
  ADVANCE NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN TOWARD THE OH RIVER IN TANDEM WITH THE
  TRAJECTORY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
  OF A POLEWARD DIRECTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ENHANCED ELEVATED
  WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
  GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05
  IN/HR -- LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES. THE WAA WILL
  ALSO SUPPORT A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OF
  COMPLETELY/PARTIALLY MELTING DESCENDING ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER...WITH
  SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA --
  I.E. SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN WHAT IS POSITED BY NAM/GFS/RR
  OUTPUT...REFREEZING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE SFC LAYER.
 
  AS SUCH...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
  REGION...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD THE
  OH RIVER THROUGH 00Z. THIS IS BACKED BY OFFICIAL SFC
  OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS FROM THE NSSL
  PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE GROUND /PING/ PROJECT. THESE
  INDICATE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVING RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS
  MIDDLE TN AND UPSTREAM INTO NRN MS/AL. WITH RELATIVELY MARGINAL
  GROUND TEMPERATURES FOR FREEZING...ICING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON
  ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING POWER LINES AND TREES...ALONG WITH METAL
  OBJECTS.
 
  THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE NEWD
  THROUGH MIDDLE TN TOWARD SRN KY THROUGH 00-02Z IN CORRESPONDENCE
  WITH DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION THAT FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE
  OF THE IMPULSE. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DECREASED
  AREA-WIDE BY LATE EVENING.

Mrgolf wrote:Toot, we got a small icing event here in southaven ms.(nw miss). Everything iced up and the I55 bridge going to arkansas is shut down. Alot of roads are bad. We had the whole shibang around here today. I do miss the classic southern slider though. Suprised no1 mentioned much about the euro. Looked real cold to me

Code:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
813 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FREEZING RAIN INTO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES OF TN AND PART OF SW VA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE DROPPED MUCH
FASTER THAN EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN PARTS OF
BLEDSOE...MARION...MORGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES IN TN AND LEE AND WISE
IN VA. ELSEWHERE FARTHER EAST IN THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAD
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S BELOW FORECAST LOWS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE ABOVE COUNTIES STAYING IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE ROADS STILL QUITE WARM FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM
WEATHER ICING IS MOST LIKELY ON EXPOSED SURFACES LIKE TREES AND
POWER LINES AND POSSIBLY CARS THAT HAVE SAT OUTSIDE. NORTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. BOTH THE NAM
AND RUC KEEP THIS AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9Z TUESDAY. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE REISSUED LATER WITH
BEST FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TN
AND SOUTHWEST NC REGION.

TNZ012>014-035-081>083-098-VAZ001-002-150900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.130115T0056Z-130115T0900Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MARION-
LEE-WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...JASPER...JONESVILLE...
WISE...NORTON
756 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013 /656 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM
EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY.

* EVENT...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH A MIXTURE OF...FREEZING
RAIN...AND COLD RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.*

* TIMING...ALTHOUGH ROADWAYS ARE RELATIVELY WARM...A LIGHT ICE
COATING COULD OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES TONIGHT.*

* IMPACTS...ALTHOUGH ICE MAY NOT IMPACT THE MAIN ROADS TOO MUCH...A
COATING OF ICE ON TREES COULD LEAD TO A FALLING BRANCH POTENTIAL.
ANY WINTRY MIX ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.*

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Dyersburg Weather wrote:It is getting serious road wise in Dyersburg. Thank God it is about 3/4 sleet and 1/4 rain. It has been coming down for about an hour and a half. Turning to about 1/4 snow as I type.