Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

by **Toot** 2012-10-26, 11:47 pm

The GFS is defiantely going to be much different this run

by **Toot** 2012-10-26, 11:55 pm

Toot wrote:The GFS is defiantely going to be much different this run

It was different alright it raced off to the north northwest without much retrogration. Not something you want to see.. if you want snow here in east TN slap

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:00 am

Overall though..that was definately a better run as the gfs its much further south like the euro. I have a feeling that the euro is gonna come south at 0z. Both the nam and the gfs did. popcorn

Up next is the Canadian model

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:25 am

Models still coming south to the euro solution..Photo coutesy of DT and Wxrisk.com

18z on left current run on right!
Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 229926_438944419486155_1069913471_n

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 229926_438944419486155_1069913471_n

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 2:08 am

While im waiting on the euro to run here is the HPC probabilities of more than one inch of snowfall

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 Qyg55t

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 2:19 am

Euro is south of its 12z run by a couple of clicks centered in Norther Virginia at 96 hrs..waiting to see if it continues to retrograde or pull off northward

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 2:26 am

Retrogrades a little and then pulls northward...some improvement for snow from the last run. Good night yall Sleep

by **Reb** 2012-10-27, 2:27 am

dang that HPC map looks nice

by **skillsweather** 2012-10-27, 3:04 am

Wow, even I am on the border of 1-10% so maybe.. Just maybe I can get some flakes thats all I want from THIS system.

by **John1122** 2012-10-27, 3:13 am

0z Euro went back closer to last nights snowfall output for East Tennessee.

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 3:48 am

Couldnt sleep after seeing the RPM model...Here's the eye candy from the euro

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 34j9bhf

by **John1122** 2012-10-27, 5:05 am

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-271645-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
438 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 /338 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012/

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN...

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS EAST
TN...SOUTHWEST VA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NC. A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE EAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH THE FREEZING MARK BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE COLD AIR POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON SUNDAY AND BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION...ON MONDAY. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST TN
AND SOUTHWEST VA...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY MIX
WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.

by **John1122** 2012-10-27, 5:07 am

JKL says the Euro solution would spread snow much further south and west, but I guess it's being discounted mostly by MRX, it doesn't even forecast any precip at all here after Sunday morning.

by **Jed33** 2012-10-27, 7:32 am

Toot wrote:While im waiting on the euro to run here is the HPC probabilities of more than one inch of snowfall

That map is definitely better looking than I expected. That is actually encouraging to me that we may see some snow in the air, possibly on the ground. The only thing is, the rates will have to be fairly heavy down here in the valley, I'm guessing to overcome the ground temps. That said, if it comes in after dark, that will sure help. I think the mountains are basically a lock for a pretty good snow from this. MRX said this in the AFD:

DEGREE REMNANTS OF
SANDY WILL EFFECT AREA WEATHER BIGGEST CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED UP IN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS...AN ADVISORY OR
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. ADDITIONALLY...A FREEZE WARNING AND
POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.

by Vanster67 2012-10-27, 8:24 am

I would not mind seeing some flakes falling. Unfortunately my wife and I have to work this weekend, otherwisw we would head up to the snow zone for some "LOOKOUT"!!!! rock on

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 10:59 am

MRX wont be able to ignore the euro much longer. ALL trusted guidance has trended to the euro's outcome this morning. NE Tennessee looks to be in for some moderate Snow Accumulations and it will get even higher into the MRX SW Va counties.

IMO the Cumberland Plateau should also see some light to moderate accumulations.. Vann. The Smoky mountains will see heavy accumulations from this system..I just dont see any way around that at this point. Of course there are still some unknowns and snow will cut off sharply as you move south and westward. Any northern trends in guidance will also eat away at snow totals.

That said.. if the current guidance consensus holds.. there should be some serious winter weather over alot of east TN. This is a storm that will rival the 93 Superstorm in many aspects and probably break all time pressure records.

The snow wont be as deep as 93 here in east TN but the winds will probably be just as high if not higher. Never thought I would live to see anything similar to that system again..but it is what it is. I feel very blessed to be witnessing such a phenomenon again!

popcorn

by **Reb** 2012-10-27, 11:17 am

NAM looking good toot. im ready to get my chase on

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:08 pm

RPM is even further south with the stormcenter..has sustained winds of around 25-35 mph over most of east TN

Here's the winds in Knots..if this model is correct the heaviest snow would be SW VA and NE TN

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 2n03t74

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 2n03t74

by **Reb** 2012-10-27, 12:09 pm

that would be huge. that would possibly bring light accums to the valley...link to that model?

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:12 pm

Weatherunderground Reb

by **Reb** 2012-10-27, 12:15 pm

got it thanks man

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:28 pm

12z GFS looks like it pummels NE TN. Low stalls out in Northern VA and it just sets there snowing for a couple of days!

Elizabeth Honey..Im coming to join ya!
Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 111989_o

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 111989_o

by **Toot** 2012-10-27, 12:56 pm

From my Blog

I can not stress enough...if you live in West Virginia/Southwest Virginia/Northeast Tennessee/Northwest NC be prepared for all out blizzard condidtions!! Trees will not be able to handle this snowfall with the leaves still on them. Power outages are likely with the high wind heavy snow combo!

This is gonna be the strongest storm to affect the eastern united states in many many years! The heaviest snow seen in the central Apps since 93! Here is some of the latest GFS snowfall totals..notice the 4ft plus totals in WV

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 541172_322429507864808_1762594118_n

Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard) - Page 8 541172_322429507864808_1762594118_n

by **Reb** 2012-10-27, 1:04 pm

toot what are your thoughts on snow in the valley?

by **Jed33** 2012-10-27, 1:08 pm

Wow, now even the GFS spreads some love to us here in E TN. If that verifies, even I may get a couple inches here in Morristown. I hope it trends even more south and west. Is it possible that this may be our biggest storm of the entire winter!? Shocked

It's not even winter, dare I say that, lol.

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