Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Reb wrote:toot what are your thoughts on snow in the valley?

Knoxville northward may have some light accums..how much is still hard to say.

Jed33 wrote: Is it possible that this may be our biggest storm of the entire winter!? It's not even winter, dare I say that, lol.

Lol..could be Jed..but I doubt it. The blocking showing up in the analogs is pretty anomalous

I hope you're right, can you imagine If we could get this setup around Jan. 10th, lol. Of course we wouldn't get a hurricane from the get go in Jan., but if we could get a storm to do this, and get a 1060mb HP coming down straight off the pole behind it I can dream on I guess.

MRX lifted the SPS..not sure but since the NAM/GFS came to the euro solution I bet they are fixing to issue winter weather products for the area

im thinking a wwa for the lower elevations of the central valley would be necessary and warnings for the higher elevations and NE TN

12z Euro holds strong...will post images when they become available

Hard to ignore those 12z GFS ensembles.. the word epic comes to mind..lol

wow lol 2 or 3 of those are heavy snow in all of etn

i did not read thru all the thread. but is it even hurricane season anymore? and i hope we get snow. and i hope it stays cool from now on, till march at least.

Updated HPC probs of snofall greater than one inch..Pobabilities have went up considerably!

Probs greater than one inch


Probabilities greater than two inches!


Greater than four inches

Hurricane season is until November 30th. We have had Hurricanes in December and January before though. Extremely rare.

Wow, those HPC probs are pleasantly surprising! We're so used to modeling getting worse for snow closer to an event, I don't even know how to react with things getting better with every run. Geez!

MRX playing it safe for now. Can't say I'm surprised, lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...THE VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
HAS JUST ABOUT WORKED THROUGH OUR AREA...HAVING JUST PASSED
TRI...AND SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND A SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...WITH A BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY AGAIN WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES NORTH. WILL KEEP SOUTHERN AREAS DRY...WITH POPS AS
HIGH AS LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING
IN...BUT PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COOL POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF LANDFALLING
HURRICANE SANDY TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SEASON WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE SHOWN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS FROM A
CLASSIC NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL EVENT WOULD BE A RELATIVE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SOME FAIRLY LOW LAPSE RATES...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING/SNOW SQUALLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
PROGGED MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS CERTAINLY VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
/PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
TENNESSEE/. MODELS HAVE COME UP WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS...AND FOR NOW GIVEN SOME OF THE LIMITING FACTORS AND
UNCERTAINTY THINK THAT IT IS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. SO...GENERALLY SHOW
A STORM SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY OF 0-1 INCHES ACROSS
MOST OF THE VALLEYS...WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 4 INCHES OR HIGHER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. IT SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE NOTED THAT THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND GIVEN
THE VERY SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF SHOULD SANDY TRACK FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY. THUS...GIVEN THIS AM CONTINUING TO BE CAUTIOUS FOR NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THINGS WITH AN SPS. THE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER.

Totals approaching 4 inches across the highest peaks? Are you freaking kidding me..lol

Leconte makes 4 inches out of a few raindrops

Where the hell is that MRX meme? lol

Found it..lol

Code:

SPSMRX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280400-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
356 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 /256 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012/

...STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN...

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE EAST
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH THE FREEZING MARK BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD AIR POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON SUNDAY AND BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ON MONDAY. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS RECEIVING THE
GREATEST TOTALS...AND VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

I’ve been busy the past few days, so I haven’t been tracking this as much as I would like. As a result, I can’t contribute much to the conversation at this point.

But, I thought you guys might want to see this Facebook post from Nathan Scott with WJHL in Johnson City.

WEATHER UPDATE- With the latest data information it is likely that WINTER STORM WATCHES or WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES will go up for all of Southwest Virginia and along the high country of East Tennessee by later today or on Sunday.

The newest information is showing a good chance of a heavy snowfall for the high country of TN/NC border and into Southwest Virginia. Snowfall totals now look to be in the range of 6"-12" maybe more for parts of the region.

As for the Tri-Cities the POTENTIAL for a light to significant snowfall is present, which means the chance for a 1"-3" to 3"-6" snowfall for parts of the region.


Once again this is NOT a definite forecast, but the models are leaning more towards snow with colder air being pulled into the region. We are on the very edge of this system, Knoxville will likely see nothing.

This is a TOUGH forecast, I am not trying to create panic but you need to be prepared for the worst case scenario which COULD be a HEAVY SNOWFALL for the entire area.

Any slight change in the track will have a big impact on the forecast. This is system could give us a heavy snow or nothing at all. Stay tuned to NEWS CHANNEL 11 for the latest on this storm.

With that said prepare for POWER OUTAGES, GUSTY AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS, COLD TEMPERATURES, and DOWNED TREES with this event long term event starting Sunday night and lasting through late Tuesday

Thanks Math Met..you certainly seem to be setting in a nice spot for this event!

Meanwhile.. the 12z RPM model continues to be well south of the guidance consensus. It would not surprise me to see other models come a little further south.

toot you should draw where you think the precip would be on that map, i cant read those very well

Reb wrote:toot you should draw where you think the precip would be on that map, i cant read those very well

Lol..Here is the 12zRPM Simulated Radar and surface temps for hr 68




Simulated radar looks underdone quite a bit..but checkout the massive downsloping over in the lower elevations of western NC

MRX continues with mostly sunny/partly cloudy for me despite every single model showing at least some precip.

Lol, got light rain now. Didn't really expect it.

Both the the 18z GFS and NAM trended a little north of 12z. Hopefully the Euro tonight brings it back south. Im thinking the difference in few clicks north or south will mean the difference between accumulations or just plain flakeage in the valley.

Alright.. here is my call! I may do a more east TN focused call map tomorrow.