Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Canadian has powerhouse winter cyclone in one week from now

Looks like any possible snow with the next system will be confined to the eastern HALF of the state with NW/uplsope flow. Even some sn showers/flurries will be possible in the lower elevations. Not looking good for any accumulations unless you're elevated where a decent upslope event might occur.

Good post by Foothills and a big reason why I was remaining cautious with what the models were showing.

Pacific continues to fool the models. I was leary yesterday of the big cold outbreak on Euro and all because of the doubts I had of it detaching the trough in the Pacific, far enough offshore to allow a northwest flow into the lower 48. This latest run no longer has that big detached look in the Pacific. Cooler for the northern half of the country, yes, but not anything out of the ordinary. Basically it has zonal flow coming in from the Pacific now, and this will limit cold drainage this far south. Who knows the models may flip back , but I wouldn't count on it yet. The cold we do get will be quick shots behind any strong storms in the Northeast over the next week to 10 days, and those don't last long. Atleast there is still some rain on the way this weekend. Now there could be just enough cold air eventually pressing south beyond 10 days, maybe around Christmas that could be a good opportunity especially the further north in the Southern states you are, if a High is placed right and the lows don't pull too far north. In this pattern coming up I'm more concerned about it being cold enough more than I am about moisture at that range, even though the moisture too has been much less in NC and VA a lot lately. What we should root for (if you want a winter storm) is one big chunk of cold that doesn't blast through, but presses far enough south like yesterdays ECM run and leaves room in the far south for some undercutting systems. Similar to split flow.

He has based that whole writeup off of one model run..which means he's flip flopping along with the models.

snowdog wrote:Good post by Foothills and a big reason why I was remaining cautious with what the models were showing.

Pacific continues to fool the models. I was leary yesterday of the big cold outbreak on Euro and all because of the doubts I had of it detaching the trough in the Pacific, far enough offshore to allow a northwest flow into the lower 48. This latest run no longer has that big detached look in the Pacific. Cooler for the northern half of the country, yes, but not anything out of the ordinary. Basically it has zonal flow coming in from the Pacific now, and this will limit cold drainage this far south. Who knows the models may flip back , but I wouldn't count on it yet. The cold we do get will be quick shots behind any strong storms in the Northeast over the next week to 10 days, and those don't last long. Atleast there is still some rain on the way this weekend. Now there could be just enough cold air eventually pressing south beyond 10 days, maybe around Christmas that could be a good opportunity especially the further north in the Southern states you are, if a High is placed right and the lows don't pull too far north. In this pattern coming up I'm more concerned about it being cold enough more than I am about moisture at that range, even though the moisture too has been much less in NC and VA a lot lately. What we should root for (if you want a winter storm) is one big chunk of cold that doesn't blast through, but presses far enough south like yesterdays ECM run and leaves room in the far south for some undercutting systems. Similar to split flow.

Per Curt at the other forum - if this -pna episode that began in November goes beyond the 23rd, it will be the longest -PNA episode that began in November since records began in 1950. And remember, that's through an entire 30 year cycle of cold PDO that those records stand. The longest one ever in thelast 62 years, at any time, was only 60 days. So there's no question that it will flip by January.

I think that, more than anything, argues for a flip in the coming week. I'm not sure why Robert was so keen to jump ship on that low pressure cutting off in the pacific after one model run, when its been showing up intermittantly for the last 5 days, at least on the long range GFS.

Yeah, I read that too on American. Not a good sign for those that like snow and cold weather. I respect Robert's opinions as much as anyone else, maybe more than anyone else. I don't know what it's going to take to get winter to ever show up this year, but we are just going to have to wait awhile longer.

jmundie wrote:I think that, more than anything, argues for a flip in the coming week. I'm not sure why Robert was so keen to jump ship on that low pressure cutting off in the pacific after one model run, when its been showing up intermittantly for the last 5 days, at least on the long range GFS.

Yeah, that was some good digging by Curt. The Ensembles are showing the Pac break down around the 23rd and have been showing that consistently for the past 2 or 3 days now. So I do think, at this point, we can be confident that the Pac is going to finally be changing. The question now is, how long will it relax?

Another point to consider with what Robert is saying is the GFS doesn't really get cold until after truncation. In the next 2 to 3 days things should become much clearer one way or the other.

12zGFS/EURO/CMC op models all agree on the big arctic front/PNA ridging/negative NAO/Split and cross polar flow in the extended. Great agreement on this..not sure why anyone would think any different

Toot wrote:12zGFS/EURO/CMC op models all agree on the big arctic front/PNA ridging/negative NAO/Split and cross polar flow in the extended. Great agreement on this..not sure why anyone would think any different

Yeah - I'd be more comfortable if the trough in the pacific would cut off, rather than just retrograde, but I'll take what I can get.

CMC and Euro both look like they will be fetch-tastic

jmundie wrote:

CMC and Euro both look like they will be fetch-tastic

Agreed...would probably be a pretty nice fetch. The ensembles show a pretty strong cold advection scheme too. Not sure..but maybe even strong enough to catch the backside of frontal precip. Instead of the "cold chasing the precip" scenario...the ensembles may be suggesting a "cold catching the precip" scenario.. which have been known to lay down a couple of inches pretty quickly.

OHX has middle Tennessee not even hitting the freezing mark for the next 7 days and has our highs low to mid 60's the whole time only has us for 54 on Tuesday though. Guess they dont see the cold coming for another week atleast.

And uh, 43 for the highon Friday

The cold front will be coming through Thursday Skills.

The front tuesday isn't amping up as much as was originally advertised, so we've basically got a storm track running from dallas to detroit - like threee waves of low pressure. Tuesday a front comes through, but we immediately get a return southerly flow due to the series of shortwaves nailing the pac nw causing ridging downstream.

Hey Guy just checked my messages, I'm lazy that way. Thanks for informing me about the site. Now let's get this cold and snow mojo going! Happy Holidays

Clarksville Snowman wrote:Hey Guy just checked my messages, I'm lazy that way. Thanks for informing me about the site. Now let's get this cold and snow mojo going! Happy Holidays

hey whats up clarksville snowman... great to have you hear on the forum... lets get the snow train a rolling man.

Clarksville Snowman wrote:Hey Guy just checked my messages, I'm lazy that way. Thanks for informing me about the site. Now let's get this cold and snow mojo going! Happy Holidays

Glad to have you here CS!!!

Local ABC met David Glenn saying next week will turn cold Friday and stick around through Xmas. 1st things 1st. Saying rain chances this Sunday have increased to maybe 1 or 2 inches. Says cold should arrive next Friday. More details on his blog.

A Mild Weekend, But The Longer Range Looks Colder

12/14/12

The third weekend of December will again be a little warmer than normal as a southerly flow sets up across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Rain chances should be increasing again especially by Saturday night and into Sunday. Model rainfall amounts are starting to pick up a bit with the possibility of heavy rain with 1"-2" locally in the time frame from Saturday night through midday Monday. Temperatures should stay mild with highs near 60 on Saturday under a cloudy sky and low 60s possible Sunday.

NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK:
The upcoming work week should start off wet with rain Monday morning, but ending through the afternoon. Low 60s will again be possible Monday as the rain ends. A break in the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with lingering clouds and more seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs in the 60s and morning lows in the 30s. Another chance of rain could return Thursday through early Friday. High temperatures should be in the upper 50s Thursday, then much colder air moves in Friday with temperatures falling through the 40s throughout the day.

NEXT WEEKEND
Right now, next weekend looks colder as the upper level pattern changes across the US. A dry, cold pattern could evolve for the weekend with daily highs possibly only reaching the 40s with lows in the 20s & 30s.

00z GFS...flip...flop.

The gfs continues to be the worst 5-7 day model there is.

Euro and CMC look awesome.

The Euro was pretty frigid by 168.



Has something maybe brewing in the gulf/S. Louisiana at the end of the run on 12-25.

i am beginning to think, you can have a negative nao and ao all you want... but untill we get the pacific to relax and give us a positive PNA we are just pissing in the wind my friends... this look we have been getting with the negative nao and ao will only keep us from torching... if that ever goes positive, thn its time folks

John1122 wrote:The Euro was pretty frigid by 168.



Has something maybe brewing in the gulf/S. Louisiana at the end of the run on 12-25.

the thing about the euro, it always looks good around day 10... then when that day 10 gets here, guess what... nothing to be had... just like pulling a old donkey with a carrot in front of it face. lol

Bruce must also be delusional and jaded by last winter...guidance is in great agreement on this Arctic intrusion and its not in day 10 range any longer. Im getting fed up with the bittercasting going on around here. When you have no model support for warmth and you continue to suggest warmth then that becomes genuine bittercasting.

You better have some freakin model support if you want to bittercast around here..the end!!

This is the Arctic Front and every freakin model out there including all the ensembles agree on it. The pattern that will ensue after it passes will be anything but a warm one

toot, good ole bud... i have got plenty of model support... all you have to do is pay attention on the west coast... sure, we may be fixing to get our first really good shot of cold air by late next week... and i wouldnt rul out sever weather out ahead of this either, since the euro is showing this next friday... but i bet the cold will only last 2 3 days at most... in and out fashion... cause there is no way to lock it in yet, without a pna ridge out west... i am have been keeping up with weather for a long time... i know what a good pattern looks like... i really hope things change for the better, cause januarywill be here for you know it... i almost willing to bet, by newyears eve night, we will see highs in the 60s and low in 50s... color me unimpressed until i see change in the pacific... the coldest air if not most will go west. just my meteorology thoughts this morning... yall have a good weekend... o by the way, i will keep on model huging. lol