Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 10:23 pm

windstorm wrote:If that kind of cold held true down here, only something like a clipper system would be all you get from that kind of cold. Shuts the door on the GOM. Unless the cold weather high was fast moving. Little dry snow flakes. Of course anything that fell would stick like glue.

Not really windstorm..when the PV dropped down in our backyards in 1985 we got well above normal snowfall even from southern stream systems..so thats not really true every time

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-01-11, 10:29 pm

Toot wrote:
windstorm wrote:If that kind of cold held true down here, only something like a clipper system would be all you get from that kind of cold. Shuts the door on the GOM. Unless the cold weather high was fast moving. Little dry snow flakes. Of course anything that fell would stick like glue.
No windstorm..when the PV dropped down in our backyards in 1985 we got feet of snow..so thats not really true

trust me, i remember that winter quite well, correct toot... thing about that winter was...we get a big snow then behind the system, the bottom fell out... then it would slightly warm back up, then here we go again... big snow, behind the system bottom would fall out... in mid january that month, the pv was parked ever so sligtly north of the ohio valley... course it would go north some between systems... i wound up with 45 inches of snow that winter total

by **windstorm** 2013-01-11, 10:36 pm

Ok Toot, there always exception. But speaking as an avg you would open the NW flow and ripples in the jet would most of the time come from Canada. But in weather anything can happen. By the way you may have all ready said it. But when and if this cold air comes, are we talking next week or later. thanks wash

by **windstorm** 2013-01-11, 10:40 pm

One other thing was 85 the year we had a cold Christmas or was 82 or something. I remember it was so cold in my old house you could see your breath. Forget about my spelling, i have been out of school a long time so please don't grade this paper. But u can take a point off if you like. lapat

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 10:41 pm

Late next week windstorm

by **windstorm** 2013-01-11, 10:42 pm

Ok, thanks. raining down my way tonight. Have a great weekend everyone. wash

by **Toot** 2013-01-11, 11:48 pm

OMG at the 0zGFS PV down towards KY/OH

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 Ipmakh

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 68655_353822274725531_635086126_n

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 111989_o

This is getting fun

by **snowdog** 2013-01-11, 11:51 pm

I'm going to have to save money be switching to Geico so I can pay my gas bill if that comes true. It has been fun watching the model runs the past 3 days. Each one comes in more extreme and more cold. Surely we won't escape this cold period without some winter fun.

by **jmundie** 2013-01-12, 12:10 am

Tonight is the first model run where 85 might be a legitimate analog.

The 12z euro extrapolated would be very similar to this Gfs run. It had a ballet cold front dropping into the plains at 240 with almost -40 850s

by **Toot** 2013-01-12, 12:14 am

jmundie wrote:Tonight is the first model run where 85 might be a legitimate analog.

The 12z euro extrapolated would be very similar to this Gfs run. It had a ballet cold front dropping into the plains at 240 with almost -40 850s

Totally agree..if that were to verify it may break 85 records uh oh

by **Toot** 2013-01-12, 12:19 am

tryin to stay up for the doctor to see if it starts to drop the north pole into our lap...but im getting drowsy stoned

by **Coach B** 2013-01-12, 7:01 am

windstorm wrote:One other thing was 85 the year we had a cold Christmas or was 82 or something. I remember it was so cold in my old house you could see your breath.

83 and 89 were the bitter cold Christmas years. For the most part they were both examples of extreme cold with little/no snowcover. I think below 0 for most of the state at some point during both. Nashville was as cold as -10 during one of them.

by **windstorm** 2013-01-12, 10:16 am

I remember that one year we had a high of only 5 degree all day long with the sun shining, as stated no snow but very cold. Don't remember what the low was. But thanks for the info Coach B. cold

by **Coach B** 2013-01-12, 10:37 am

Based on all the reading I've done on the SSW that is taking place there are some good signs that the remainder of the winter may very well be significantly below average:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_01/temp_anom.png

by **windstorm** 2013-01-12, 11:35 am

I will take it with a lot of snow on top please. rock on

by **Toot** 2013-01-12, 12:09 pm

Perfect agreement by the ensembles...notice the lack of greenalnd blocking tho. Would like to see more of a greenland block trend over the next couple of days

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 24ndvg4

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 24ndvg4

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-01-12, 4:24 pm

In other news, where is Bruce ? Sounds like MEG is getting ready to issue a Tornado Watch.

by **Toot** 2013-01-12, 5:02 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:In other news, where is Bruce ? Sounds like MEG is getting ready to issue a Tornado Watch.

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 28 Laughing-grandma-o

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-01-12, 5:58 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:In other news, where is Bruce ? Sounds like MEG is getting ready to issue a Tornado Watch.

here i amm dyer, i just got off work buddy... had to work today... i have been on top of things best i can... does look like if there is any nader chance... be in miss delta region... were they are sligtly more unstable... but i tell you... been very sticky here all day with dews up to 65 and a temps of 73... i wouldnt rule out some severe in our area dyer as the fronts drws near later this evening... but i will have my eyes on it bud...

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-01-12, 6:20 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:In other news, where is Bruce ? Sounds like MEG is getting ready to issue a Tornado Watch.
here i amm dyer, i just got off work buddy... had to work today... i have been on top of things best i can... does look like if there is any nader chance... be in miss delta region... were they are sligtly more unstable... but i tell you... been very sticky here all day with dews up to 65 and a temps of 73... i wouldnt rule out some severe in our area dyer as the fronts drws near later this evening... but i will have my eyes on it bud...

Couple of warnings around Paducah earlier.

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-01-12, 7:02 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:In other news, where is Bruce ? Sounds like MEG is getting ready to issue a Tornado Watch.
here i amm dyer, i just got off work buddy... had to work today... i have been on top of things best i can... does look like if there is any nader chance... be in miss delta region... were they are sligtly more unstable... but i tell you... been very sticky here all day with dews up to 65 and a temps of 73... i wouldnt rule out some severe in our area dyer as the fronts drws near later this evening... but i will have my eyes on it bud...

Couple of warnings around Paducah earlier.

yep dyer, tornado watch just issued in eastern arkansas untill midnite, good call dyer

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-01-12, 9:37 pm

Why do all models keep have so much trouble ? It is getting ridiculous. Every system they suck. I am not just talking long range. We were forecast to get get a minimum of 4 to 8 inches during the so called blizzard of Christmas night up until it did not happen. We were forecast to get 4 to 5 inches of rain this weekend up until mid day today and it now looks like we will get an inch or two maybe. All of the big systems are trending NW. I realize that the NW trend is common but why do the models not pick this up ?

by **Toot** 2013-01-12, 9:55 pm

LOL..DW I feel ur pain lol!

The stratosphere is currently playing havoc with the models. During winter the wavelengths are also shorter meaning longwave patterns are more amped and changing more rapidly than other seasons. Then you have the split flow pattern that models can never handle well at anytime.

The models also have known biases of holding back and suppressing energy..so its hard for them to hone in on whether or not to suppress or hold back. Then on top of all that there is a MAJOR reconfiguration of nthe northern hemispheric pattern going on right now. On smaller scale SW's/storm systems..good luck past 48 hrs out..lol

by **ballpark** 2013-01-12, 11:02 pm

Looking at these models is enough to make your head spin. I thought it was groundhog day for a while looking at the 10 day forcast showing the cold coming but then taken away on day 9. Just a little humor it looks at least day 8 it will get cold.

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 4:23 am

Keep an eye on the Arctic front roaring through on Monday into Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations with it Monday night.

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