**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

snowdog wrote:Not a good run of 12z models if you want the big dog barking.

12z mref....sref nam...wrf gfs all look pretty good for east TN. The cmc is too far east...and i havent seen hi res euro graphics yet

Snowdog is right. The moisture is there but the temp profiles just wont line up to make that moisture be snow. 12z makes me confident that it will be a mixed bag of precipice at best...

VFL wrote:

snowdog wrote:Not a good run of 12z models if you want the big dog barking.

you

me following

From MRX



.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE IN WED NGT WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND
THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GA ON THU. LEANED AWAY FROM NAM TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION. STRONG JET SEGMENT EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION.
WENT BELOW MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE EXPECTING STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THU AS COLD CORE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. FREEZING LEVEL WILL
DROP TO AROUND 2000 BY LATE THU AFTN. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY
THU AFTN AS BRUNT OF MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TN AND SW NC.

tom23 wrote:Snowdog is right. The moisture is there but the temp profiles just wont line up to make that moisture be snow. 12z makes me confident that it will be a mixed bag of precipice at best...

Tom..the majority of guidance crashes 850s and thickness values changing the rain to snow. This is a dynamic low pressure system...its not some little weak "mixed bag at best" setup as you keep calling it. I think you need to take Mundies advice that he gave u yesterday.

If this is one of those ULL the brings it's on cold air with it, most, notice i didn't say evertime but most of the time if you are not sitting under this thing it more of a rain event and a headache to to try to call rain /snow line.

This is a "hope you're close enough to the LP for moisture but just N/NW of it for the dynamics to change you to snow. If it stays closed across the SE people just to the N/NW of the track will cash in. Sadly for me, I'm probably too far NW for now to get much. This reminds me of 2008-2009 when there was a small hole over East TN that never saw much winter while every direction saw a major winter event.

Hi-Res model runs and SREF aren't looking all that good either. Honestly, right now, I think the best place to see snow out of this is mid-MS through mid-Al (outside of higher elevations in east TN and North Ga.)

John1122 wrote:This is a "hope you're close enough to the LP for moisture but just N/NW of it for the dynamics to change you to snow. If it stays closed across the SE people just to the N/NW of the track will cash in. Sadly for me, I'm probably too far NW for now to get much. This reminds me of 2008-2009 when there was a small hole over East TN that never saw much winter while every direction saw a major winter event.

Knoxville must have made a deal with the devil in 93'.

snowdog wrote:Hi-Res model runs and SREF aren't looking all that good either. Honestly, right now, I think the best place to see snow out of this is mid-MS through mid-Al (outside of higher elevations in east TN and North Ga.)

Good grief, bring on spring severe IMO.

snowdog wrote:Hi-Res model runs and SREF aren't looking all that good either. Honestly, right now, I think the best place to see snow out of this is mid-MS through mid-Al (outside of higher elevations in east TN and North Ga.)

Snowdog im not sure you're looking at the same HI RES models that I am. They are not looking good for your area but its definately a different story in east TN

I posted the latest from the weatherbell 4km and 12km NAM/WRF in the members only thread and here is the 18z 4km NAM from the ewall site.


Looks pretty decent to me..of course im in east TN tho

Here is the latest SREF maximum 3hr total snowfall for hour 48

Latest HPC guidance..Probability of greater than one inch of snowfall Thursday-Friday timeframe

From Meteorologist Robert Gamble's facebook page

Toot wrote:From Meteorologist Robert Gamble's facebook page

WOW, toot bringing the heat.

I like how Toot continues to give us his thoughts along with graphics/models where as many others may make claim based on a feeling. I'm not saying one person is right or the other, but I do appreciate displaying WHY one feels the way they do, show us the data that causes you to lean one way or another.

dahrkdaiz wrote:I like how Toot continues to give us his thoughts along with graphics/models where as many others may make claim based on a feeling. I'm not saying one person is right or the other, but I do appreciate displaying WHY one feels the way they do, show us the data that causes you to lean one way or another.

Honestly the models are 50/50 at best even showing widespread precip in East Tennessee. The NAM was best earlier and it's generally been getting worse for most of Tennessee it's past few runs, shifting the precip South and East. Right now I'd feel best probably in the counties bordering North Carolina and above 1500-2000 feet in elevation. It may end up better for us all, but right now far east and south look best.

Toot, it seems like more members are in the same camp I am in regards to the system than you realize. John/Snowdog aren't seeing a big dog system at all, and neither am I.

tom23 wrote:Toot, it seems like more members are in the same camp I am in regards to the system than you realize. John/Snowdog aren't seeing a big dog system at all, and neither am I.

I think there's a good shot of some areas seeing very heavy snow, just not very wide spread the way things look now. ULL snows are extremely track driven. You can have heavy snow with a band of rain both north and south of it.

I think the GFS and NAM have the right idea and are getting pretty close to decent agreement with each other now. I imagine something in between the GFS/NAM will end up being the correct solution. Having tracked several similar events over the years I think the operational GFS is a little too far east with the precip shield compared to the placement of the surface low and upper level energy. That said.. I think the NAM is a little too far west and there still will be a SHARP cutoff in snowfall as you go a few counties west of the NC/TN state line.

This will not be an elevation dependant snowfall but elevation always helps when the temperature profiles are only marginally cold. The counties that border NC will definately do better than counties that are further west but this will be because the further east the deeper the moisture is!

The setup here in east TN is not strictly a "bowling ball ULL" type of setup where one has to be be under the core of the upper level low to change the rain over to snow. This is more of a Miller A type setup in respect to east TN and this is seen really well on the 18z NAM.

As you can see the core of the ULL is SW of the state when moisture/precip/cold air are at their best in east TN TN.




Basically the further east you are the better off you will be if you're looking for snowfall

tom23 wrote:Toot, it seems like more members are in the same camp I am in regards to the system than you realize. John/Snowdog aren't seeing a big dog system at all, and neither am I.

Yeah, I am actually buying into most of what toot is showing and predicting could happen. However, my county is on the border of NC and in the foothills of the moutains. Jeff CO. is pretty close to me. So if what I am buying into unfolds then you might get an inch or two. Mainly a small part of TENN. will get snow. 85% of state will not get the big dog from what I am understanding.

tom23 wrote:Toot, it seems like more members are in the same camp I am in regards to the system than you realize.

There is no "Mixed bag at best" camp! That is just your wild imagination playing tricks on you again.

tom23 wrote:
John/Snowdog aren't seeing a big dog system at all, and neither am I.

Lol..the whole "Big Dog" thing is something I have done for fun over the years. The words "Big Dog" in the thread title have no meteorological value and neither do the images of large canines posted in this thread...lol

That said there is a good chance for some to see heavy snow with this system. Hell...Chattanooga may even see some thundersnow

Ah, slantwise convection, My favorite type of convection! Literally, it is, being a geek, with the whole "slantwise" thing, but I did perk up when I saw Robert mention that. If we get snow that heavy, forget ground temps. It WILL accumulate. Now, it may melt fast, but it will stick for at least awhile.

I like where I am with this system

how does this look for the Bristol area?