**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

00z NAM snowfall map. Lines up with the MRX WSW.

orangeblood1985 wrote:To my untrained eye, the OZ NAM looks more like the 12Z run from earlier today than the latest 18Z run. That is a good thing for the entire valley. What are your thoughts Toot? IMO, the biggest hinderance to snow accums will be the speed at which the deform band from the ULL tracks out of our area. I seem to remember these things moving out quicker than anticipated at times.

The 0z NAM is awesome...definately a heavy hitter. The speed of the system is always something to consider but this is a pretty classic setup for east TN. After tonights runs..I will be watching HRRR/satellite/radar/mesoanalyisis from here on out.

The NAM..the GFS and its ensembles are in perfect agreement now.
One last look at teh ensembles


It dont get a whole lot better than this unless the surface low starts to go bombogenesis but we dont have the blocking for that.

My forecast is here
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t522-big-dog-call-maps-forecasts#20775

00z is a little stronger with the 500mb closed low but it is a little further south as well. 00z is a 2 contour closed upper level low. Going by soundings and precip available, verbatim it looks like close to .5" of QPF falls in Knoxville as snow.

If that were to occur, MRX's thinking for Knoxville would be on the money. We'll see if the next few runs of the RAP/HRRR support the NAM's QPF and timing.

Pman1618 wrote:Hello from Lebanon, TN about 20 miles east of nashville...now is there the slightest chance at all that this big dog snowstorm could trend more northeast than southern middle tennessee...i mean any chance at all?

The chances are slim to none..you can always drive a little ways eastward!

snowdog wrote:00z is a little stronger with the 500mb closed low but it is a little further south as well. 00z is a 2 contour closed upper level low. Going by soundings and precip available, verbatim it looks like close to .5" of QPF falls in Knoxville as snow.

If that were to occur, MRX's thinking for Knoxville would be on the money. We'll see if the next few runs of the RAP/HRRR support the NAM's QPF and timing.

It will be nowcast on the exact track on the ULL. So 50 miles to the North or 50 miles to the South will make a difference.

Thanks for the roundup Toot! I watched good ole WJHL earlier and they posted the RPM Model which showed .1" of snow accums for Greeneville and 0 for Knox or Tri. They stated that their latest info. had shifted the heavier snowfall southeast of the area. That seemed strange to me because the heavier accum amounts seem to be east / northeast of our area according to the other models. Any knowledge of this RPM model?

Just came in..... Am I dreaming ???? My local forecast is show 7 to 13 inches of snow!!!!!!

AndyP wrote:Just came in..... Am I dreaming ????

No..its real!

orangeblood1985 wrote: Any knowledge of this RPM model?

Its been south of the guidance consensus for a while now. Its by itself basically

Woof!!!!

Toot,
I have to admit it at first I was a little skeptical about the snow comming. We do live in the valley and most the time we get shafted. But now after following all the models I'm a believer. Lets get this snow party started. I've got the bread and milk. Along with some shine.

I noticed that MRX has an update on the end of their AFD now: UPDATE...LATEST 17/00Z NAM TRACKS UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. DEPICTED SNOWFALL NOT AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE
BUT BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE EXPECTED. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
THE SE TN VALLEY.

HPC probs of greater than a HALF A FOOT OF SNOW

WOWZERZ!! Don't think I've ever seen that for any area I've lived in probability of seeing a half foot here in Morristown about 40-50% Toot, what's the last time the central valley got 6+ inches out of one storm?

snowman72 wrote: Lets get this snow party started. I've got the bread and milk. Along with some shine.

Snowman..I just popped the top on a fresh Jar myself!

Salute!


LOL

Jed33 wrote:WOWZERZ!! Toot, what's the last time the central valley got 6+ inches out of one storm?

Christmas 2010

LOL Toot^^ You can see the upper level low pretty well on radar now, was just looking at it on the SE Radar view on the left of this page!

AndyP wrote:VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE
BUT BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

What?!?!? Questionable? Weak Sauce!!

Already snow falling in Holocomb, MS.

Yep, Adam, see it well on the SE Radar right now.

snowdog wrote:

What?!?!? Questionable? Weak Sauce!!

Its your TROugh of Warm air ALoft argument that is weak sauce. Valley accumulations are always questionable..but thats not stopping them from forecasting 3-5 inches now is it?

Toot wrote:

snowdog wrote:

What?!?!? Questionable? Weak Sauce!!

Its your TROugh of Warm air ALoft argument that is weak sauce. Valley accumulations are always questionable..but thats not stopping them from forecasting 3-5 inches now is it?

Priceless.... Snowdog seems set on hoping this turns out as a fail for the east / northeast part of the state.

Any wagers on how many reports of thundersnow we may see? 2-3 hr. inch/hour rates would be nice to see. However, there has to be concern about downed trees if the heavy snow comes to fruition. Could get ugly.

snowman72 wrote:Toot,
I have to admit it at first I was a little skeptical about the snow comming. We do live in the valley and most the time we get shafted. But now after following all the models I'm a believer. Lets get this snow party started. I've got the bread and milk. Along with some shine.

When it comes to snow below about 1500 feet in East Tennessee, it's always prudent to be skeptical.

John1122 wrote:

snowman72 wrote:Toot,
I have to admit it at first I was a little skeptical about the snow comming. We do live in the valley and most the time we get shafted. But now after following all the models I'm a believer. Lets get this snow party started. I've got the bread and milk. Along with some shine.

When it comes to snow below about 1500 feet in East Tennessee, it's always prudent to be skeptical.

I agree 100% John. We have certainly been burned more than I can count. For what it's worth the Oz GFS still looks good. Almost nowcasting time.

0z gfs. Actually a little better for central valley