Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

by **tom23** 2013-01-16, 8:04 pm

VFL wrote:
tom23 wrote:18z gfs actually shows my opinion of what will happen very well. Its very reasonable imo. 1-3 inches for central east tn. Not 2-4, but I don't expect that much either. Would I love 3-6? Heck to the yeah, but I'm not jumping off a cliff if I don't get that. 1-3 inches is more than I've had the past two years combined!
If someone looked on here and had no idea we where talking about the weather could you imagine their reaction?

LOL I can't quit laughing! rfl

by **Toot** 2013-01-16, 8:13 pm

MRX pulled the trigger!

Code:: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 811 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... .A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-067>071-073-086-101-102- VAZ001-005-171000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.130117T1600Z-130118T0300Z/ CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE- NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON- NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST MONROE-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- SCOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA... LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT... BRISTOL...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE... RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY... KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE... SEVIERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE... GATE CITY 811 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * TIMING...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY PULLING COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...SOME HEAVY SNOW...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PULL DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * EVENT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

by **Adam2014** 2013-01-16, 8:22 pm

Code:: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 655 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013 ...SNOW EXPECTED ON THE PLATEAU ON THURSDAY... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE. ALL SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING. TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080-171400- /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0000Z/ PICKETT-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-COFFEE-WARREN- GRUNDY-VAN BUREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BYRDSTOWN...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON... JAMESTOWN...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER... MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER 655 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...RAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * OTHER IMPACTS...AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

OHX pulled trigger for Plateau counties.

by **VFL** 2013-01-16, 8:23 pm

BOOOOOM

by **VFL** 2013-01-16, 8:28 pm

MRX bringing it. WSW for Knox and Central Valley 3-5".

by **tom23** 2013-01-16, 8:32 pm

Too much dry air to overcome will make this system be a bust... wait, there is no dry air???? Too much warmth will make this a mixed bag at best... wait, the brisk northerly winds will make this a quick changeover to a possible whiteout condition snowstorm???? Is there anything else I could come up with to make this system seem not so huge? NO??? Hahahaha...

I'll admit. I played it conservative for the most part. Instead of hyping it up, I tried piece by piece to tear this system down. But it didn't work. I look like I will be wrong. Heck, its better to be wrong on the low side of things than be wrong on the high side, so it doesn't bother me a bit.

That all said... BRINGGG ITTTT.... ONNNN! Twisted Evil

by **snowdog** 2013-01-16, 8:34 pm

Comparing 12z NAM soundings for Knoxville vs RAP soundings valid for 18z (1:00pm est) tomorrow...RAP is warmer at the surface but cooler in the mid layer (700-850mb).

by **snowdog** 2013-01-16, 8:37 pm

VFL wrote:MRX bringing it. WSW for Knox and Central Valley 3-5".

That is not a conservative call at all. I'd give it a 25% chance of verification.

by **tom23** 2013-01-16, 8:40 pm

snowdog wrote:
VFL wrote:MRX bringing it. WSW for Knox and Central Valley 3-5".

That is not a conservative call at all. I'd give it a 25% chance of verification.

LOL snowdog stop trying to ruin the fun. Stop being jealous about us getting our snow.

by **snowdog** 2013-01-16, 8:43 pm

Man, you guys have your fun. I won't be jealous so long as you guys post some pics/video of your snowgasm for me to enjoy. (if it happens gun

)

by **Toot** 2013-01-16, 8:43 pm

snowdog wrote:
That is not a conservative call at all. I'd give it a 25% chance of verification.

LOL Snowdog..you have became the epitome of a genuine pessimist over the last few months! All guidance pretty much supports their call pffft

by **VFL** 2013-01-16, 8:43 pm

snowdog wrote:
VFL wrote:MRX bringing it. WSW for Knox and Central Valley 3-5".

That is not a conservative call at all. I'd give it a 25% chance of verification.

Back to the cliffdive

for me.

by **orangeblood1985** 2013-01-16, 8:45 pm

snowdog wrote:
VFL wrote:MRX bringing it. WSW for Knox and Central Valley 3-5".

That is not a conservative call at all. I'd give it a 25% chance of verification.

Hey snowdog, do you mind providing your evidence that supports the 75% chance this will not verify? Just curious.

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 8:45 pm

Shocked that MRX jumped on board, I guess OHX deciding to put out a WSW made the difference for them. Or they actually looked at most model runs for the past 24 hours.

by **tom23** 2013-01-16, 8:46 pm

snowdog wrote:Man, you guys have your fun. I won't be jealous so long as you guys post some pics/video of your snowgasm for me to enjoy. (if it happens )

Haha well it'll happen... but I'm hogging all the pics for myself!!! LOL... but seriously though, I'll be driving home from Morristown Tn in whiteout conditions tomorrow because I'll be at school until 9 pm.

by **Toot** 2013-01-16, 8:47 pm

orangeblood1985 wrote:
Hey snowdog, do you mind providing your evidence that supports the 75% chance this will not verify? Just curious.

by **Adam2014** 2013-01-16, 8:50 pm

I honestly do see at least 3 inches panning out in the valley areas. These ULL's can really put down some snow quickly. Good luck to you all tomorrow!

by **snowdog** 2013-01-16, 8:52 pm

John1122 wrote:Shocked that MRX jumped on board, I guess OHX deciding to put out a WSW made the difference for them. Or they actually looked at most model runs for the past 24 hours.

I posted it last night. I don't see too much that has changed form that post.

by **Toot** 2013-01-16, 8:56 pm

snowdog wrote:
I posted it last night. I don't see too much that has changed form that post.

**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013** - Page 14 35uagr

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 8:56 pm

I'm not sure why yet, but MRXs big difference between a few hours ago and now for me at least is they were saying rain to snow around 11 am. Now it's saying snow all day with a high of 32.

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 9:01 pm

My current point forecast.

Tonight A chance of snow before 1am, then rain likely. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected

Thursday Snow. Steady temperature around 32. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 9:04 pm

Point forecast above me around 3100 feet.

Rain likely, mainly after 1am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Snow. Temperature falling to around 29 by 1pm. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

by **John1122** 2013-01-16, 9:06 pm

And for Mt Leconte.

Rain. Patchy fog after 1am. Low around 34. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Snow. Temperature rising to near 36 by noon, then falling to around 30 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 15. Windy, with a north wind 30 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

by **Pman1618** 2013-01-16, 9:11 pm

Hello from Lebanon, TN about 20 miles east of nashville...now is there the slightest chance at all that this big dog snowstorm could trend more northeast than southern middle tennessee...i mean any chance at all? sneaky

by **orangeblood1985** 2013-01-16, 9:12 pm

To my untrained eye, the OZ NAM looks more like the 12Z run from earlier today than the latest 18Z run. That is a good thing for the entire valley. What are your thoughts Toot? IMO, the biggest hinderance to snow accums will be the speed at which the deform band from the ULL tracks out of our area. I seem to remember these things moving out quicker than anticipated at times.