**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Reb wrote:tom, they must see too much dry air to overcome. lol

Tom should be forced to put that in his signature. Especially if he gets anything out of this storm.

I am still looking for a few inches out of this here in Erwin. If we get that, it will have been the most in one storm in the last two years!

Lol, almost like the old mrx. Remember the time back in Dec. Where the afd was quick to play up the snow threat, and everyone was like-huh? Almost like they had a new guy there or something. I guess the old guy said, here, let me show you how its done. GFS, uh no, NAM, forget it, euro-heck no. this is how it is here boy, forget guidance, no snow except mtns. I dont care what the data shows. You forecast against snow.

Jed33 wrote:Lol, almost like the old mrx. Remember the time back in Dec. Where the afd was quick to play up the snow threat, and everyone was like-huh? Almost like they had a new guy there or something. I guess the old guy said, here, let me show you how its done. GFS, uh no, NAM, forget it, euro-heck no. this is how it is here boy, forget guidance, no snow except mtns. I dont care what the data shows. You forecast against snow.

EXACTLY!!!! Now I am under the usual Winter storm warning...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
414 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

.A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GENERATING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TNZ018-041-043-045>047-072-074-087-VAZ002-006-008-170515-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0001.130117T1600Z-130118T0300Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WISE-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...
COKER CREEK...WISE...NORTON...LEBANON...ABINGDON
414 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10
PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.

* TIMING...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY PULLING
COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLDER AIR WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...SOME HEAVY SNOW...THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
MAY PULL DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

Also, they did bump up my forecast totals as well, but the changeover is now 2 hours later.

Thursday: Rain before 4pm, then rain and snow. High near 39. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

MRX

LOL!


I'll be working on a forecast/snowfall graphic this evening. Gonna try to have it finished by 10pm

Hope everyone enjoys following the models tonight. My ass is getting ready to go to work. Be home at 5 30 in morning to hopefully read some good news. I did ask my superviser at VW last night what he protocol is for production if hypothetically we get heavy snow on Thursday. He said it doesn't snow here and besides, the news said 50 and sunny. I said okie dokie.
Hopefully can get updates on phone at my 11 oclock at night lunch.

Lol, MRX zone forecast calls for 1-3 in as of 414 pm. This is not advisory criteria here? Dang, whats it take to get an advisory?

What's going on with MRX?


HUN and FFC have issued Winter Storm Watches for their cities near the TN border (Birdgeport, AL and Dalton, GA) but MRX strictly has all rain for Chattanooga and Cleveland.

Good luck to you guys to the east. Hope you have better luck than us over here. We have been in a good set up but can't get things to come together. From missing a blizzard by 40 miles on Christmas to having highs below freezing for the last 3 days with only a dusting of ice to show for it. Don't know what to think.

[quote="Grimkus"]What's going on with MRX?

I can tell people that they better be ready for some snow and they say "well, I don't know. I have a hard time believing it will lay." I keep thinking they don't understand the amount of snow that is expected to lay in the given timeframe. IF/WHEN the temp. drop I expect to have 4-8 laying and the melted snow will turn into a ice sheet overnight. IMO, sorry no data just going by the models posted on this thread.

Bufkit Warehouse 18z GFS? An I reading that right 11" at Knox?

3-6 inches per both Todd Howell and David Aldrich for the central east tn area, including Knoxville and Morristown. I don't even bother to watch Matt Hinkin because he's always trying to say nothing to see here even when it is snowstorming outside. I swear he's trying to audition for Mrx all the time.

LOL tom! Great line

Reb wrote:LOL tom! Great line

Haha cheers buddy! You'll have to use that line now!

tom23 wrote:I swear he's trying to audition for Mrx all the time.

LOL! Nice one!

etnwx wrote:

tom23 wrote:I swear he's trying to audition for Mrx all the time.

LOL! Nice one!

Thank ye, thank ye!

For whatever reason MRX almost never issues any type of Warning outside the Mountain counties and rarely issues advisories before the event is unfolding. Especially in the last 5 years or so. I got under one of these heavy commahead snow bands in Dec 2009 and got 8 inches in about 4 hours. MRX issued a WWA after the snow had stopped. I got 13 inches in January 2010 without ever getting above an advisory.

tom23 wrote:3-6 inches per both Todd Howell and David Aldrich for the central east tn area, including Knoxville and Morristown. I don't even bother to watch Matt Hinkin because he's always trying to say nothing to see here even when it is snowstorming outside. I swear he's trying to audition for Mrx all the time.

Quite a difference of opinion there. T.V. VS MRX. At least Todd and David read the models and aren't scared to make a forecast based on what data says.

18z gfs actually shows my opinion of what will happen very well. Its very reasonable imo. 1-3 inches for central east tn. Not 2-4, but I don't expect that much either. Would I love 3-6? Heck to the yeah, but I'm not jumping off a cliff if I don't get that. 1-3 inches is more than I've had the past two years combined!

Hey guys! I am a new member, long time lurker from the Greeneville area. I have been following this current system extremely close, but I have a few questions. The NAM and GFS models have been spitting out pretty solid totals for our area, but WJHL is not buying it. I have also heard that the Hi-Res NAM (short term model?) is showing next to nothing for the entire valley of east and northeast tennessee. Anyway, I have a lot to learn, and I wanted to get your guys take on the differences in the models.

tom23 wrote:18z gfs actually shows my opinion of what will happen very well. Its very reasonable imo. 1-3 inches for central east tn. Not 2-4, but I don't expect that much either. Would I love 3-6? Heck to the yeah, but I'm not jumping off a cliff if I don't get that. 1-3 inches is more than I've had the past two years combined!

If someone looked on here and had no idea we where talking about the weather could you imagine their reaction?