**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Has anyone gotten a good grip on when the changeover will occur is in East TN? My local forecast says around 2 pm. Is an earlier changeover possible?

It will be West to East and elevation dependent Andy. I'd say 2 is a good timeframe for you based on soundings. You'll probably see 4-6 hours of very heavy snow if this goes as modeled.

Ah perfect for the drive home from school ! Ha Ha. I have an appointment at 6 in Johnson City. I sure hope it snows enough to cancel that before I head out in it!

Haha I'll be at college until 9 pm tomorrow night! That'll be fun driving!

Maybe they will cancel classes tomorrow evening Tom! Anybody seen the latest model runs?

Even Atlanta is under a WSW now
Although to be fair, most of their predicted snowfall is mentioned to occur in the Georgia mountains.

The NAM is about 40-50 miles South this run.

Yeah, that's good in some ways, but in another way, it robs some qpf from the northern areas. 18z though tends to be drier. However, it may be right.

Definitely less snow for most than the last few NAM runs but in line with the EURO and GFS with generally 2-4 outside the far Eastern areas.

Do you guys feel pretty confident about a plowable snow event for Knox metro late afternoon tomorrow? I've got to decide on mobilizing 10-12 pieces of equip. tomorrow morning. TIA

wolfeman wrote:Do you guys feel pretty confident about a plowable snow event for Knox metro late afternoon tomorrow? I've got to decide on mobilizing 10-12 pieces of equip. tomorrow morning. TIA

I personally don't think paved surfaces will have lasting snow on them unless this just goes bonkers and dumps 12 inches. I'd be surprised if snow covered pavement in Knox at noon on Friday.

Mrx must be having a huge conference call for them not to have an AFD out yet

Tomorrow evening? I have a couple hospitals and a few other 24hr facilities to keep clear constantly.

tom23 wrote:Mrx must be having a huge conference call for them not to have an AFD out yet

I have been sitting here forever waiting on that AFD ha ha!

Lol, me too! MRX, if you're reading this, where's the AFD. haha

wolfeman wrote:Tomorrow evening? I have a couple hospitals and a few other 24hr facilities to keep clear constantly.

Could be icy tomorrow evening from any leftover rain freezing up and also the snow Wolfeman. Keep up-to-date with us and with your local weather stations for more info as the system gets closer and ultimately unfolds!

AndyP wrote:

tom23 wrote:Mrx must be having a huge conference call for them not to have an AFD out yet

I have been sitting here forever waiting on that AFD ha ha!

As have I!! Lol... come on Mrx, you're killing us...

MRX is always pretty late with their AFD.

Wolfe, I'd probably have them on standby but as warm as it's been this will have trouble sticking on pavement in large amounts. But it's gonna be cold behind the storm so any that lays may put down a layer of crunchy slush.

MRX kiboshes everything. Less than an inch outside of NE TN, possible advisory for NE Tennessee. Warning for the mountains.

LOL at Mrx... whatdafuq are they smoking?

Seriously, what model are they even looking at?? The infamous Czech model??

They are simply the most conservative WFO in the country. Always have been. They may be right this time but they've been spectacularly wrong about these situations several times in the past 4-5 years.

Lol, must be thinking about the warm, wet ground, give me a break, lol. They could be right though.

Edit: If they are talking about the pavement, I concur. I don't necessarily agree with them though as far as trees and grass and cars goes.

tom, they must see too much dry air to overcome. lol

I have read that AFD several times now. I am not sure why, but I just cant understand what they are seeing?! Oh well, they are the experts.. right ?

Reb wrote:tom, they must see too much dry air to overcome. lol

Either that or a mixed bag of precip through the entirety of the event... LoL