January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

That should be 6 hours of decent freezing rain.

HR 60 P-Type.


HR 63 P-Type.


HR 66 P-Type.

John1122 wrote:That should be 6 hours of decent freezing rain.

HR 60 P-Type.


HR 63 P-Type.


HR 66 P-Type.

That would be close to ice storm warning criteria here if it was mostly zr.

Been a while. badsick. recovering. 6 hrs decent freezing rain sounds badd for us

Been a while. badsick. recovering. 6 hrs decent freezing rain sounds badd for us

Be nice to get something frozen tho.

Hope you're good now Van. Was wondering where you'd been.

Euro still drops 2-4 inches from 40 N in East Tennessee.

Im starting to worry that temps might be to warm for 90% of middle Tennessee and only far northern edge gets anything at all. And now everyone is saying ice for us so this looks like another fail of a system for us unfortunately. Idk about east Tennessee I guess they still are in the game but they usually always are anyways. really hope all the hype about February actually happens cause I know January failed.

MRX update for possibilities:

:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 413 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240915-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-413 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013 /313 AM CST WED JAN 23 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY AROUND AND NORTH OF KNOXVILLE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN ABOVE THE SURFACE...A WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH AND SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH...WITH SOME LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...SO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE STILL MURKY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE P

And NWS in Atlanta looking for ice in their AFD. Also at bottom they reference 4 weather offices for coordination of AFD, including Morriston and Huntsville.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS GA. MODELS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CAD WILL BE SETTING UP WITH THE CENTER OF A 1032 TO 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NC OR VA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ALOFT...ISENTROPIC PROCESSES WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANALYSIS OF THE 295 THETA SURFACE IN THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WITH 50 TO 70 MB OF UPGLIDE AND LESS THAN 10 MB REQUIRED TO SATURATE AND PRECIPITATE. AT THE SURFACE...COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE EAST WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT ABOUT 900 MB UP TO ABOUT 600 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING STRONG WEDGE AT THE SURFACE UP TO 925 MB ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I20...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO MACON LINE. WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB IS QUITE WARM AND A POSSIBLE CAUSE FOR BUST CONCERN AS MODELS INDICATING TEMPS AS WARM AS 44 TO 45 DEG F IN THE WARM NOSE...HOWEVER...THE COLD WEDGE IS AS LOW AS 21 DEG F AT ITS COLDEST POINT WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER WARM NOSE. NAM...GFS...SREF...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1000-850 MB AND 850-700 MB LEVELS ALIGN WELL IN THE FREEZING RAIN CATEGORY. ALL THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY. ALONG AND WEST OF I75 WILL WARM ENOUGH BY AROUND NOON THAT FZRA SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN...HOWEVER POINTS FURTHER EAST AND NORTH MAY STAY FZRA INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE SLOWLY ERODES. TOTAL QPF NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE..HOWEVER...SINCE THE PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE OF AN ICE VARIETY...IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH GREATER PARTICULARLY ON TRAVEL FRIDAY AM. HPC PROBABILITIES BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PCT PROB OF 0.01 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SHOWING A SWATH OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES FROM NORTHWEST GA...SOUTH THROUGH THE ATLANTA METRO EASTWARD ALONG I20 INTO SC. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HONE IN ON BOTH AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

BEYOND FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD ARCTIC HIGH AND ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WEAK ISENTROPIC PROCESSES ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS. BECAUSE OF THAT...CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY AND ON THE COOL SIDE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS MID WEEK.

THANKS HUN...CAE...GSP...AND MRX FOR THE COORDINATION.

STELLMAN

&&

.AVIATION...

JMA drops about 10-12 inches on Tennessee. It truly may be the worst model ever.

John1122 wrote:JMA drops about 10-12 inches on Tennessee. It truly may be the worst model ever.

They changed the meaning of JMA. JMA now stands for JustMassiveAmounts

You'd think the japanese would be better at developing forecast models. They are very good with other electronic instruments and machines.
That said, i've seen the jma verify once. Lol

Jed that was awesome

Lol, thank ye thank ye very much

Starting to see decent agreement among the models. Looks like a typical clipper event maybe 1-3 inches for most. A nice snow to look at. I'm still leary though of ice to go along with it.

Vanster67 wrote:Be nice to get something frozen tho.

I bought a can of snow for my Christmas tree this past Christmas. Thinking this would be the only chance i would see snow this winter.

Toot wrote:Clipper snow totals

Last nights 0z Euro

This mornings 6znam

Leaves a big hole right over Chattanooga. But this the way it goes down here. If we don't get snow this winter that will be two in a row.

ummm, windstorm, the NAM, which pretty much nailed the last event, doesn't leave a hole over Chattanooga. Look again. Yeah, the Euro is not as kind to you, but I think you will probably get something out of this.

You can bet there is a hole over Chattanooga. Somebody bought a voo doo doll and stuck pins in it. Everytime one of these models show snow for chattanooga 9 times out of 10 it's N and NE of us. Thanks Toot.

windstorm wrote:You can bet there is a hole over Chattanooga. Somebody bought a voo doo doll and stuck pins in it.

Windstorms posts always bring some comedy to the forum. Thanks windstorm

Everybody needs to laugh sometimes it good to have a laugh now and then. Thanks.

Chatt town has faired better than Knox the last 2-3 years minus this last event where west Knox got a inch and north,east Knox got 3-4".

No one in east TN watching the 12z NAM? Looks good for you hillbilly's...again.

Sorry I cannot look at any models at work.
But you had the traditional warm nose coming up through the valley
And up the river is it still there on the models?
I am in Meigs county and it seems like we're always fighting that.

Looking at 12z NAM soundings for Chatty, it looks like a possible sleet/freezing rain to freezing rain set-up. You are in the same boat as northern middle TN, with the super warm mid-level that destroys any chance for snow.