Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

by **Toot** 2011-12-30, 5:34 pm

The ensembles support a very nicely placed system around Jan 10th-15th with NAO/AO values expected to be near 0

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems F240

by **Stovepipe** 2011-12-30, 9:15 pm

According to the 18z GFS it's back to back storms for the foreseeable future. Marginal temps mind you and not snow verbatim, but I like having the consecutive chances. One of them will pan out I bet.

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-30, 9:18 pm

Agreed we have the cold here it may not be here for good yet but it broke the ridge enough that I think more colder shots can come. I was worried about having a cold/dry winter even if we got the pattern change. But if there showing alot of storms I feel maybe we can get some good storms. At this point I will be happy for just 1 storm for the whole season as long as its a big one.

by **Toot** 2011-12-30, 9:22 pm

Skills you wil have at leastwo good snows this winter....thats about avg

by **skillsweather** 2011-12-30, 9:24 pm

Thats all i need Smile

Im like a little kid when it snows no lie lol im only person in my whole neighborhood out at like 5am playing in it.

by **Reb** 2011-12-30, 9:46 pm

skills you and i are the same haha. im always out playing in it or watching it. its like cocaine lol

by **Toot** 2011-12-30, 9:53 pm

18z gfs Jan 10

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems P1_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000

I feel for all those forecasters that switched their winter outlooks from cold too warm..It has to be there worse bust of recent memory...but there's was a double bust they made one for Dec and busted then changed the rest of the winter to warm and it now looks to be sustained winter until march evl

by **tennessee storm09** 2011-12-30, 11:18 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:18z gfs Jan 10

I feel for all those forecasters that switched their winter outlooks from cold too warm..It has to be there worse bust of recent memory...but there's was a double bust they made one for Dec and busted then changed the rest of the winter to warm and it now looks to be sustained winter until march

i sure take a good cold n snowy january all the way to most of february, but by as most of you know by now, i am a severe weather guru at heart... so by march i am usually studying long range data for severe and constantly studying the products over at spc. but if winter keeps getting delayed, i take a good snow in march anytime rock on

by **Homemommy** 2011-12-31, 10:33 am

Oooh, goody goody! My birthday is Jan 10!! It snowed last year on my birthday too. That would be such a great gift! rock on

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-31, 12:27 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

Toot, the 12z GFS won't show up It says you can't do that.

by **Toot** 2011-12-31, 12:32 pm

fixed

by **Adam2014** 2011-12-31, 12:34 pm

Alright cool, check out the I 40 north event on the 12z GFS dang.

by **Toot** 2011-12-31, 3:44 pm

keithinala wrote:GFS has a potential huge ice storm at the end of the run(around the 15th) for western half of tenn, north ala, north miss, arkansas...some amounts of an inch or more

Adam2014 wrote:First off, nice to have you on here man. It is great to have someone near my area on here. Second, we sure are due a big Ice storm.

ok i couldnt merge the other thread for some reason so i just quoted the two posts in it

by **John1122** 2011-12-31, 3:58 pm

I will be shocked to no end if that ice storm shows up the same on the 00z run.

There will probably be a system in the East in that time frame simply due to the wet pattern, but that's about all you can say right now.

by **Toot** 2011-12-31, 6:16 pm

Theres a signal of a deep trough around the 11th which could up the chances for snow during this period

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems F264

and the op GFS has a consistent wintry type setup going on during this period

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems F228

by **Toot** 2011-12-31, 9:01 pm

Actually day 10 is really sexy

GFS ensemble mean

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems 2vc6b0l

Even the euro agrees

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems F240

Thats a east based NAO block there

by **Reb** 2011-12-31, 9:58 pm

oh momma

by **Toot** 2012-01-01, 10:34 am

0z CMC

0zgfs

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-01, 10:38 am

looks like models are wanting to paint a apps runner around this period. rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-01, 11:55 am

12z tries to develop a system at or around this time frame. but the shortwave just goes pooof.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-02, 12:23 am

0z GFS is certainly interesting around the 9th.

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems Gfs_namer_186_500_vort_ht

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems Gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip

Plenty of time for that to shape up. Or disappear... Showing an abundance of cold on tap for the extended range though so at least it's looking like we'll have several shots this month.

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems 00zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems 00zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA

by **keithinala** 2012-01-02, 12:27 am

Note: this is not for weather experts, just for fun for those in my area that like to be updates on what is going on.

http://milkandbreadreport.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/coldest-weather-since-last-winter-to-help-usher-in-new-year/

by **Toot** 2012-01-02, 12:38 am

keithinala wrote:Note: this is not for weather experts, just for fun for those in my area that like to be updates on what is going on.

http://milkandbreadreport.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/coldest-weather-since-last-winter-to-help-usher-in-new-year/

I like chicks that wear bama shirts wash

by **Reb** 2012-01-02, 12:42 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
keithinala wrote:Note: this is not for weather experts, just for fun for those in my area that like to be updates on what is going on.

http://milkandbreadreport.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/coldest-weather-since-last-winter-to-help-usher-in-new-year/

I like chicks that wear bama shirts

no kidding shes hot as crap popcorn