Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

by Guest 2012-01-10, 6:37 pm

Toot, you remember well.. it was the one that happened on Valentine's Day in 2009. Got an inch from it, very heavy stuff indeed. And like you mentioned was possible with this one, the roads got pretty bad here due to the massive amount of cold air that came behind it all. I can only imagine what would've happened if the whole entire thing had the massive cold air associated with it... could've recieved a foot probably. It rained heavily all night long, then only snowed for like 30 minutes, but recieved an inch from it... yep, a foot from that looks likely had the cold air been with the whole deal.

by **Toot** 2012-01-10, 6:44 pm

Tom23 wrote:Toot, you remember well.. it was the one that happened on Valentine's Day in 2009. Got an inch from it, very heavy stuff indeed. And like you mentioned was possible with this one, the roads got pretty bad here due to the massive amount of cold air that came behind it all. I can only imagine what would've happened if the whole entire thing had the massive cold air associated with it... could've recieved a foot probably. It rained heavily all night long, then only snowed for like 30 minutes, but recieved an inch from it... yep, a foot from that looks likely had the cold air been with the whole deal.

Thanks...yeah I remember that system because of the Linear band of snow behind the cold front...that's not your normal post frontal snow...The cold front was literally right in the middle of the linear band of precip with rain on the front and snow in the back. I watched it come all the way across the midwest into the TN valley...I expect this will be a very similar situation. hurry

by **jmundie** 2012-01-10, 6:48 pm

You compared the last clipper with the super clipper, right? There was no linear band of snow with that one (but there was a linear band of rain.

I'm intrigued by this system, it just looks funky. But I wouldn't jump on the accumulations bandwagon yet, unless I'm in the higher elevations. Surface temps have a long way to cool and modeling doesn't support much if anything.

by **Toot** 2012-01-10, 6:55 pm

Maybe I did mundie...im not sure... regardless this system is very much like the 2009 Valentines clipper..and yeah I will even go ahead and throw some rough accumulations out....ive seen all I need to see at this point Razz

...Just for east TN...here's my rough call on accumulations.

Valley...Dusting to an inch

Plateau...1-4

Montains...2-5

I will be putting together a call map and a forecast tomorrow.

by **Toot** 2012-01-10, 10:08 pm

0zNam

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 11 2012011100_EUS_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_048

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 11 2012011100_SER_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_048

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-10, 10:17 pm

NOGAPS still tasty:

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 11 Graphicaspx-26

by **jmundie** 2012-01-10, 10:59 pm

Gfs trended wetter folks

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-10, 11:14 pm

jmundie wrote:Gfs trended wetter folks

YES!!!

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 11 Cheryl11

Been dying to use that one again this year, thanks dawg!

by **John1122** 2012-01-10, 11:27 pm

I believe the clipper everyone is talking about was Valentines day 2010 actually. And I got about 5 inches of snow from it. It was snow on top of snow. I had snow on the ground from January 29th - March 7th in 2010.

by **Toot** 2012-01-10, 11:33 pm

John1122 wrote:I believe the clipper everyone is talking about was Valentines day 2010 actually. And I got about 5 inches of snow from it. It was snow on top of snow. I had snow on the ground from January 29th - March 7th in 2010.

Ahhh...Thanks for clearing that up...my memory is not so great

by **John1122** 2012-01-10, 11:37 pm

Mine either. After looking at my records at the time the snow fell on February 15th and 16th, Valentine's Day weekend and I received 8.25 inches total.

This is my rundown for 2009-2010.

First accumulating snowfall: December 5th 3 inches.

Largest snowfall: 13.5 inches Jan 29-30th.

Other notable snowfalls:

December 18th: 7.5 inches

February 15th-16th: 8.25 inches.

Total snowfall: 43.85 inches.

Coldest low: 3.1 Jan 9th.

Coldest high: 15.8 Jan 8th

Days in a row of temps not getting out of the 20s, Jan 2nd-Jan 13th

Snow on the ground Jan 2nd-Jan 17th and Jan 29-Mar 7th.

by **John1122** 2012-01-10, 11:46 pm

At this point I am just hoping we get snow to fall rather than the super cooled rain MRX seems to think will occur.

Snow maps are showing 1-2 inches across the Northern tier of Tennessee Counties from about Fentress to the Johnson County area.

by **Toot** 2012-01-10, 11:54 pm

John1122 wrote:At this point I am just hoping we get snow to fall rather than the super cooled rain MRX seems to think will occur.

Lol..they seem to be the only ones mentioning anything about any supercooled rain.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-10, 11:56 pm

Ha, even Matt Hinkin is mentioning snow so we must be living in bizzarro world.

Shocked

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 1:21 am

Euro 00z text output showing about 1.5 inches of snow for the valley as well as the plateau; a little less for middle TN. Take that with a nice large grain of salt mixed with copious amounts of climo and a twist of model madness. Bring on the flizzard, maybe some folks will get lucky!

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 3:07 am

Just like clockwork the nightshift at MRX increases snow chances dramatically. Slight chance of rain/snow before 1 pm Thursday, then snow likely. Thursday night snow likely before 1am with a low of 22.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 3:56 am

From MRX AM discussion.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE IN
THE FIRST 3 PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SHARPLY DOWNWARD...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THIS LIFT ACTS UPON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS
1/4 TO 1/3 OF AN INCH...SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN FAVORED AREAS
WHERE ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIKELY TO OCCUR. PER
COORDINATION WITH NWS NEIGHBORS (GSP)...TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST YET...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 4:26 am

If nothing changes I expect to get my first WWA of 2012.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 1 TO 4
INCHES...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...THE NORTHERN AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE...AND
ALSO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS COULD
GET A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL.

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-01-11, 6:01 am

Not sure about the snow but I do know currently its raining buckets. Laughed at the morning shifts on local tv. They said small chance of some stors. 5 minutes later as I'm driving to work sky was lighting up blue with loud thunder. You would think they could look at their radar or simply look outside and say storms instead of a slight or small chance.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 6:04 am

Just been general heavy rain here. Not heard anything thunder yet. Supposed to be a chance of some hail in some areas today.

by Vanster67 2012-01-11, 7:52 am

Hey BallPark!! Welcome, and good to see you man. Moderate to heavy rain moving thru. Am looking forward to snow Thursday and Thursday night. OHX got Monterey down for 60% rain/snow likely high 43 and falling. Thursday night with a 40% chance snow and low temp of 16. Wonder if we might get our first WWA of 2012 like John mentions. Should of had it a week ago with the terrible road conditions here.

by **Toot** 2012-01-11, 8:04 am

WOW @ the MRX AFD

Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 11 288351_o

I'll do a forecast and call map tonight...the totals I metioned earlier may be a little light.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 8:19 am

Woke to some nice thunder this morning... snowmageddon in 10 days I guess.

cold

by **ballpark** 2012-01-11, 8:36 am

Vanster67 wrote:Hey BallPark!! Welcome, and good to see you man. Moderate to heavy rain moving thru. Am looking forward to snow Thursday and Thursday night. OHX got Monterey down for 60% rain/snow likely high 43 and falling. Thursday night with a 40% chance snow and low temp of 16. Wonder if we might get our first WWA of 2012 like John mentions. Should of had it a week ago with the terrible road conditions here.

I think a wwa for Monterey will be out for Thurday night in your area Vanster if I had to guess it looks like you will be in that wwa criteria. cold

by Vanster67 2012-01-11, 8:43 am

lets just bring it then. BP, you have alot of rain this morning?

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