Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

by **ballpark** 2012-01-11, 8:52 am

little over an inch of rain. I looked at the 06 gfs and it was calling for a warmup after this weekend. We better enjoy what we get this weekend. I hope the 12zgfs will flop back.

by **Southeastbutter** 2012-01-11, 10:06 am

Just curious... Is there a possibility of any moisture coming out of the gulf on this thing. I haven't heard anything about that being a possibility, just wondering...

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 10:58 am

12z GFS looking even sexier for Thursday night.

rock on

by Guest 2012-01-11, 11:01 am

Stovepipe wrote:12z GFS looking even sexier for Thursday night.

Details please, Stove. I'm on the go so I really don't have time to analyze the models right now.

by **snowdog** 2012-01-11, 11:39 am

Looks like nice post frontal band of snow (.5 to 1") and then if you live in favored upslope areas you might do quite nicely.

by **Homemommy** 2012-01-11, 11:47 am

snowdog wrote:Looks like nice post frontal band of snow (.5 to 1") and then if you live in favored upslope areas you might do quite nicely.

Rats. I live in a hole. But if I can't get it, I hope it's you guys that do. But I am gonna be jealous. burn

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 1:03 pm

by **ballpark** 2012-01-11, 1:56 pm

It would be nice to get at least an inch of snow.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-11, 2:08 pm

I would wager that this even will either way exceed expectations, or there will be nothing. Not sure I believe the .5-1 inches that models are spitting out.

by Guest 2012-01-11, 2:33 pm

jmundie wrote:I would wager that this even will either way exceed expectations, or there will be nothing. Not sure I believe the .5-1 inches that models are spitting out.

These types of systems do have a tendency to overperform, as long as surface temps cooperate. But for the reason you said 'or there will be nothing', they also tend to be heartbreakers for people since we're talking about a rain transitioning over to snow type of deal. We won't know for sure until nowcast time. I'm starting to like the 'not knowing for sure until nowcasting time' type of systems because of the excitement and rollercoaster of emotions.

by **ballpark** 2012-01-11, 2:42 pm

It would'nt take much to please me because I have'nt seen a flake this year. wash

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 2:54 pm

I swear the day shift vs night shift forecast differences at MRX still crack me up. Day shift put the onset of snow beginning off until tomorrow night and lowered my chances from 70 percent down to 50 percent.

Of course day shift insisted on flurries on Jan 3rd too but I ended up with almost 2 inches.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 3:00 pm

That said, I am getting a thunderstorm that is threatening to cover the ground with hail.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-11, 3:03 pm

Yeah John that line was fierce when it moved through here. Some kick ass lightning in that one, although I didn't notice any hail downtown. The sky was pitch black.

by **Reb** 2012-01-11, 3:07 pm

yeah john, models look better and they just lower the chances lol. they actually upped my pops to 50 percent at night but as rain/show showers. with 10 percent chances friday morning

edit: weird that both stove and i said yeah john instead of quoting sneaky

by Guest 2012-01-11, 3:11 pm

If you look at the 'met tag' or whatever it is that they call it beneath the AFD's, you can see why there are differences. It seems like the current Dayshift mets are the same ones who always are pessimistic about any snow, and its been that way for a long time now (even when they are on nightshift, etc). Complete opposite for the current nightshift people. I usually immediately go to the met tag, skipping the AFD, read who it is making the AFD, then go read the AFD so I can get a feel on who is doing the forecast at that time. You'd be surprised at how many differences there are between just one forecaster compared to another.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 3:21 pm

North Georgia is already under a WWA for snow for tomorrow night. I doubt MRX issues one for the valley because criteria is higher for East Tennessee.

I expect Middle Tennessee, SE Kentucky, N Georgia and Western NC to be under a WWA. Most likely leaving the Valley in a hole. We'll see if it plays out like that.

by **Southeastbutter** 2012-01-11, 3:58 pm

I saw a special weather statement on the TV (cleveland) but I assumed it was for N. Georgia. Mentioned TN valley so I don't know fo sho... I really don't talk like that.. just in the mood to rhyme.

by **Reb** 2012-01-11, 4:02 pm

butter...occasionally its acceptable if you are giddy...fo sho

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 4:12 pm

SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-MARION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...JASPER
330 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 /230 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM
CST/ THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY.

* EVENT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNSET. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING
THURSDAY EVENING...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW COVERED THURSDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE AFTERNOON
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

by **John1122** 2012-01-11, 4:15 pm

And for the remainder of East Tennessee outside the higher mountains.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

TNZ015>017-036>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-083>086-099>101-120900-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-RHEA-MEIGS-
MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...
MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...
ELIZABETHTON...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...
MADISONVILLE...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON
330 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT
TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS SNOW POSSIBLY
STICKING TO THE ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING. IN ADDITION...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

RESIDENTS OF EAST TENNESSEE ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN VENTURING OUT ON THE ROADWAYS. BE PREPARED
FOR SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE UNTREATED. KEEP A
SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

by **Adam2014** 2012-01-11, 4:25 pm

18z NAM looks really good, OHX is of course going with I-40 North for any accumulation. They give me a shot for a dusting but I think they are being a little conservative here.

by **ballpark** 2012-01-11, 4:37 pm

Winter Weather Advisory Early Thursday morning through Thursday Evening. This includes W KY, S IL, and SEMO. A system will bring moderate snow, wind and much colder temperatures Thursday. I'm going through the latest numbers now, and will have your hour-by-hour forecast on Local 6 at 5, 6, 9 and 10. C KY also under WWA.

by Guest 2012-01-11, 4:40 pm

Jackson KY WFO just to the north of E. Tn is saying that after the main precip band comes through, there will be NW flow snow showers coming through until early afternoon, per their AFD. I doubt that NW flow snow showers reaches down this way, but its something to look at.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-11, 4:44 pm

I imagine OHX will go with a WWA if 0z holds serve tonight.

Would really love for 18z to blow up the moisture here, just to make it interesting.

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