Re: Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems

by **Toot** 2012-01-02, 1:48 pm

keithinala wrote:
If you feel that way, don't comment on anything until 3 days out. The constant negativity sucks, quite frankly

I nominate this for post of the friggin day rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-02, 2:12 pm

yall may want to stop bickeriing, and take a look at the 12z euro, clos to a big storm, so close. and look at the brutal cold air crashing down in log range on euro cold

by **keithinala** 2012-01-02, 2:17 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:yall may want to stop bickeriing, and take a look at the 12z euro, clos to a big storm, so close. and look at the brutal cold air crashing down in log range on euro

Euro looks really good to our west, then it breaks down...certainly something to keep watching.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-02, 2:19 pm

Yep, the way they were play-by-playing the 12z euro on american I was fearing the worse but looking at the maps, it isn't a fail for us yet. Still plenty to work with there.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-02, 2:19 pm

keithinala wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:yall may want to stop bickeriing, and take a look at the 12z euro, clos to a big storm, so close. and look at the brutal cold air crashing down in log range on euro
Euro looks really good to our west, then it breaks down...certainly something to keep watching.

yep keith, i really like the look of it. something is brewing in this time frame folks

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-02, 2:48 pm

as a moderator, lets get back on topic please... lol!

by **John1122** 2012-01-02, 2:52 pm

Stovepipe wrote:Yep, the way they were play-by-playing the 12z euro on american I was fearing the worse but looking at the maps, it isn't a fail for us yet. Still plenty to work with there.

Keep in mind that on American they are cliff diving based solely on what's going to happen in North and South Carolina for the most part, with a moderate sprinkling of N. Georgia thrown in for good measure.

Foothills did say it was very close to a monster snowstorm for the Apps/Ohio Valley so that gives us folks on the west side of the mountain some hope.

But mostly it's still 10 days away. So no biggie one way or the other on this particular run. Still a storm on the board at least and some of the Euro ens are tanking the AO and sending down some cold. So models are starting to come into decent agreement on that at least.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-02, 2:56 pm

John1122 wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:Yep, the way they were play-by-playing the 12z euro on american I was fearing the worse but looking at the maps, it isn't a fail for us yet. Still plenty to work with there.

Keep in mind that on American they are cliff diving based solely on what's going to happen in North and South Carolina for the most part, with a moderate sprinkling of N. Georgia thrown in for good measure.

Foothills did say it was very close to a monster snowstorm for the Apps/Ohio Valley so that gives us folks on the west side of the mountain some hope.

But mostly it's still 10 days away. So no biggie one way or the other on this particular run. Still a storm on the board at least and some of the Euro ens are tanking the AO and sending down some cold. So models are starting to come into decent agreement on that at least.

yep, i feel pretty good being in the west part of the system.... but jesus, look at the cold air that comes crashing down out of the plains midwest. cold

by **Toot** 2012-01-03, 10:48 am

Get ready for another Arctic outbreak if the ensembles are correct and they have been on a hot streak here lately...the thing about this cold intrusion is that it will likely be unmodified arctic air...I imagine there will be nice winter system to go along with this....I dont see how anyone could still say the pattern has not changed....the indices are starting to catch up to this change in the 500mb pattern also....what will bug me is the droves of people that will start screaming the pattern has changed when the NAO/AO indices flip when the actual change in the pattern could be seen on any NH 500mb graphic long ago evl

Jan 12

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-03, 1:50 pm

I try to be conscious of over quoting Robert and others from American, but this is just too good to not share over here.

Robert:

the ecmwf run was pretty impressive in my opinion. Taken into account its biases, here's what I think it shows. First atleast its' in the ballpark of GFS through 120 hr or so, then the changes begin. Both split the stream, and the lakes wave allows cold air to press into Tenn Valley to Carolinas, and both show the weak 1020 to 1024 high. But Ecm. thins out the cold air quickly but doesn't get all that warm. It has a new Lakes wave come in that pushes out the high pressure to the north, but GFS maintains it before cutting off a system, and GFS has a bigger intrusion of cold further west and south, before it cuts the system off. ECMWF cuts off further west and has less cold that gets infused. However both models have grown colder, and pushed colder further south. There's no way to know yet if either model is accurate yet, as either solution could easily occur (or none). Yesterdays run had the day 10 system phasing with the Gulf storm as it pulled north, but last nights run keeps the streams just separate to prevent a major bombing out, instead it runs the bowling ball cutoff from the Gulf coast to up the east coast as a huge cold rainmaker, taken literally. However that track is climo for a major interior southeast snowstorm, and is already close to cold enough verbatim on ECMWF for Southern Appalachian Major Snowfall. It shows 850 temps of 0 to +4 with pockets of sub zero on the nw side of the low, where the heavy precip is. The runs next few days should spell out how much cold gets pushed south, and how the evolution of any storm goes. Could be there is only a sheared out wave and the Ecm is overdoing the cutoff. Or could be a blend of GFS/ECMWF type of system, which would be the Southeast first widespread winter storm. Plenty of chances and yet another fun storm to follow, this time with cold air perilously close. All models are showing yet another cold blast following the storm and keep western ridging for a very long time. So much for the warm January idea. And its pretty neat to see 3 and 4 contour cutoffs modeled travelling along the Gulf coast in January...gives my earlier ideas a leg to stand on (maybe) . We need as much cold to work in before any system develops and dont' want a massive deep system or it pulls in too much warmth...a fine line there.

06 z GFS develops some Alaska blocking at 288 (and cross polar flow) ...this is the first run that brings it closer, but its still not in the 10 day window. Also has a large arctic outbreak just after our Gulf storm next week, so it has a very cold airmass dumping into the country, and the beginning stages of another one around or after the 288 Alaskan ridge. Again , where the sets up exactly means everything on where the cold and warmth lines up.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-04, 2:09 am

Euro Oz still very close to something good on the 8th and again on the 12th.

popcorn

by Vanster67 2012-01-04, 7:08 am

I wonder what the 12Z run of the EURO will hold for us. I cannot wait> I am amazed at how many times I check in here when weather is lurking around. I might not say alot, but I am here! Lets Go winter 2012!!!!!!!!! rock on

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 7:15 am

If there is a pattern changing storm on the horizon, its the one coming between 8-10 days. Its the first storm I've seen that has the possibility of turning the NAO negative for a sustained amount of time.

I don't think it will be good for east tenn, it appears though, that a heavy snow event is possible anywhere from tulsa, ok to Nashville. Its very timing dependent and the pattern change depends on where the s/w gets absorbed into the arctic front.

Euro from last night

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Jan 12th-15th Clipper Systems - Page 3 F192

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and here's your ridging building just west of greenland. This cold would stick around in this scenario.

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and the 10 day map for the euro here

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by Guest 2012-01-04, 7:30 am

Umm... yeah J, just because one or two models is showing the storm 8-10 days away not hammering E. Tn is cause enough to say, 'I don't think this will be good for east tn' lmao

Come on, we don't even know if this system will actually be anything more than a flurry or two for anyone. How in the world can it be determined that this will be bad for East Tn if even a flurry is still a question??

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 7:49 am

I think its more likely that this is a lakes cutter than a storm that runs up the piedmont, just based on the timing of the cold front. I'm sure its possible that the cold air gets here much sooner and the s/w runs along the gulf and up the piedmont, but I doubt it.

But take heart, if this system verifies close to what the Euro is saying, you'll get your token upslope snow showers and possibly more if that vortex locks in and energy rotates around the base.

The GFS is probably too fast with the s/w, and the euro is likely too slow... that would give us a track west of the apps.... the biggest question is the timing of the cold air and where the phase occurs

by **Toot** 2012-01-04, 8:40 am

jmundie wrote:

and here's your ridging building just west of greenland. This cold would stick around in this scenario.

That feature has been around off and on for quite a while now. Its all been in response to the western ridge that changed the pattern a couple of weeks ago...Western Ridge/Eastern Trough/Another ridge riding all the way up west of greenland...The pattern has changed and the driver for this is the western ridge instead of the southeastern one. Now that heights have been building up into that area and the ao area you will see the indices come down...It dont work the other way around...the pattern dont respond to mathematical indices made by us humans...the indices respond to the pattern. Im not accusing you of thinking that but there is alot of writeups that are geared that way....and that thinking is not at all very scientific in nature.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 9:03 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
jmundie wrote:

and here's your ridging building just west of greenland. This cold would stick around in this scenario.

That feature has been around off and on for quite a while now. Its all been in response to the western ridge that changed the pattern a couple of weeks ago...Western Ridge/Eastern Trough/Another ridge riding all the way up west of greenland...The pattern has changed and the driver for this is the western ridge instead of the southeastern one. Now that heights have been building up into that area and the ao area you will see the indices come down...It dont work the other way around...the pattern dont respond to mathematical indices made by us humans...the indices respond to the pattern. Im not accusing you of thinking that but there is alot of writeups that are geared that way....and that thinking is not at all very scientific in nature.

The AO going negative is a response to the warming over central asia. That's the ridge that has been building up into the arctic. The NAO going negative is a result of the AO going negative. While it can happen, its hard for the NAO to be negative without at least a neutral AO.

The western ridge is a result of the PV retrograding west towards central canada... but I wouldn't say we haev a permanent western ridge at this point. The cut off that's going to be part of this storm system is still going to be sitting over the southwest for a bit... which is similar to the pattern we've been getting.

IMO, all of this has to do with the ridging in asia that is in the process of splitting up the PV. Part of the PV drops into the pacific, which builds the ridging into Alaska, which allows cold air intrusions into the east, which hopefully causes a full on negative tilt storm, arctic outbreak, and builds another ridge over greenland, locking in the cold.

by **Southeastbutter** 2012-01-04, 10:00 am

I just saw a webcast from my locals (Chattanooga) for the next two weeks. I believe it was the gfs they were looking at. It looks like it is showing the cold air having a hard time making it down here, but a lot of precip around the 12th-15th. So cold air... keep coming south.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 12:09 pm

Where is everybody? GFS is about 24 hours of timing off from historic....

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-04, 12:11 pm

First day back to work so I'm slacking on my model watching. Good to hear we're in the ball park.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 12:29 pm

Canadian timing is better than the GFS. Probably not a good sign for us though. CMC has been worse than the other models (which have been bad as well)

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by **snowdog** 2012-01-04, 12:57 pm

jmundie wrote:Where is everybody? GFS is about 24 hours of timing off from historic....

The CMC and GFS are both close as you say. MiddleTn is overdue for a big one. I know weather doesn't work that way, but you have to consider it.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-04, 1:29 pm

jmundie wrote:Where is everybody? GFS is about 24 hours of timing off from historic....

i agree with you 100 percent mindie, the energy holds back just a tad longer, boom goes the dynamite. i am also at work... but on lunch break. come on euro, gives us some good news. i will be on tonight, this is getting intersting to say the least.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 1:34 pm

GFS ensembles were wash

one of the members shows 4 separate major snow events from 180-384 as next weeks system starts a more blocky look.

I'm not convinced of the major pattern shift to cold/blocky/stormy yet, but by the weekend we'll know for certain whether next wed's storm will usher in a wonderful, possibly historic, second half of january.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-04, 1:37 pm

No Gaps has the pieces too... just a little quick on the s/w or a little slow with the cold front.

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