Late winter thoughts

Going back 50 yrs..I could only find one Febuary that had a decently neg NAO when january featured a mostly positve NAO. I think the colder wx will be finished by mid Febuary. However...that does not mean there cant be major snowstorms. I can give you links to late feb...march and april snowstorms that dumped feet and i do mean a bunch of them! You actually have better odds of a major snow (8+) during this late FEB-Early April period. That is when things are really juicy and cold at the same time. Thats why your Historic storms almost always occur during this timeframe

I Got 12 inches in April of 1987

Storm of the Century: March of 1993. That was enough for me to know snow doesn't care what the calendar says.

As we are in late winter now, what is everyone thinking of the winter we have left. Cold, warm, rainy, strong storms, I dare say this but Snowstorm ? What do you think about the rest of winter for Tennessee.

Toots right on the mark!! The fat ass lady has not sang yet, lol. It ain't over til it's over!!

There still a snow threat around the 26 - 27 time frame but as of now a light event. Of course things can change. And i know it's out in voo doo land also. And we have been burn all winter long from the GFS and other models. But this winter am thinking will go down as the winter that Could of, Should of but did nothing . Could of, or Should of. It's like the winter that never happen. Most big time highly over pay weathermen miss it to. Yes i know some got snow but it was mostly in the favorite spots that see snow from clipper type systems. Or a front where the cold is chasing out the rain but still enough to drop some good amounts. 2011/12 was going to be difference from 09/10 and it was and so will 2012/13 be difference. It will be the winter that never Happen. I thinking the fat lady has already sung and left the stage until next year when she begins to start a low humming sound once again. Yes i know about March and you can have big time snows. But really !! You can count those events on two hands. When we are talking winter as a whole we are not talking about what happen in your back yard and 98% of Tennessee got little if any snow. This is not winter. I know it's Friday but somehow i got the Monday morning blues. I still have a little hope for what is left, but very little.. Have a great weekend everyone.

Windstorm, your probably right but I'm originally from Miami and I have seen so many models say we are going to get hit by a hurricane and then it turns at the last minute. Now I know this is the reverse of what we want here but my point is that Hurricane Andrew was supposed to turn and bam we all know what it did to South Florida. So the point is that it only takes one. Fat mama is rehearsing but she hasn't sung just yet.

Toot wrote:Going back 50 yrs..I could only find one Febuary that had a decently neg NAO when january featured a mostly positve NAO. I think the colder wx will be finished by mid Febuary. However...that does not mean there cant be major snowstorms. I can give you links to late feb...march and april snowstorms that dumped feet and i do mean a bunch of them! You actually have better odds of a major snow (8+) during this late FEB-Early April period. That is when things are really juicy and cold at the same time. Thats why your Historic storms almost always occur during this timeframe

I Got 12 inches in April of 1987

Analogs don't mean crap, I'm convinced. What happened to the siberian snowcover predicter, the Oct/Nov NAO reading predicter, et al.

The NAO has been neutral or positive almost the entire winter. Anyone who thinks it can be predicted is full of it.

Mundie...you are full of it. There is no oct snowcover to nao correlations! Its oct snowcover to AO correlation and the -AO was predicted successfully months in advance. Everyone knows the NAO cannot be predicted beyond two weeks but normally it follows the AO but there are exceptions and this winter was one of them.

Hey Toot, what's your thoughts on the progged NAO. Looks real good to me. Is it too late to squeek one more out, or do you think there is still potential? Today's graph is the lowest I've seen all winter.

Jed33 wrote:Hey Toot, what's your thoughts on the progged NAO. Looks real good to me. Is it too late to squeek one more out, or do you think there is still potential? Today's graph is the lowest I've seen all winter.

If we can get a solid block near greenland then I like the last week of FEB. Guidance has shown some blocking developing but getting that to verify has been a problem this winter. There is certainly some potential towards the end of the month but got to have that block.

Toot wrote:

Jed33 wrote:Hey Toot, what's your thoughts on the progged NAO. Looks real good to me. Is it too late to squeek one more out, or do you think there is still potential? Today's graph is the lowest I've seen all winter.

If we can get a solid block near greenland then I like the last week of FEB. Guidance has shown some blocking developing but getting that to verify has been a problem this winter. There is certainly some potential towards the end of the month but got to have that block.

I agree. Plenty of systems coming through. Just need some blocking to stop all these lake cutters.

Well as winter heads north of Tenn. I look back on winter 2012/13. In this winter for me yes to some degree it was a little better. We did get the ground cover in snow which was about one inch IMBY. Some more, some less. but since we were in a neutral winter more or less. What will that set up for next winter ? Same, Positive, Neg.??? Like to hear what anyone is thinking for next winter. I know it to far out but at best when we do our winter forecasting each year we are guessing to. But it's always fun to look ahead. Yes i like spring, but tornadoes from a distance is good to look at as long as people don't lose the house or life. Summer, i can do without. Way to hot. Chattanooga avg about 45 to 55 days of 90 plus. Have a good weekend