Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

by **Jed33** 2013-02-19, 8:07 pm

Ok guys, here's your thread. Let's keep it general until a threat shows up within 5 days. Then we'll create specific threads for that system.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-19, 11:19 pm

Lol, where did everyone go? 18z and 12z were awesome! I figured there would be more talk in this thread. Lets see what pops up here in a min on 0z

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-20, 5:35 am

Jed33 wrote:Lol, where did everyone go? 18z and 12z were awesome! I figured there would be more talk in this thread. Lets see what pops up here in a min on 0z

the 0z ran everybody off mad

by **Jed33** 2013-02-20, 6:54 am

I guess. The GFS wasn't as good as previous runs, but it want bad overall. The Euro was actually a good hit for TN with a southern slider. It also had some incredibly nice blocking seting up around this timeframe.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-20, 1:32 pm

Hell I might need a thread for today. It is 29 degrees here as of 12:30. Todays high was supposed to be 38. Winter precip much bigger to our west than expected. popcorn

by **Jed33** 2013-02-20, 1:59 pm

Keep us updated DW. maybe you can get a surprise!

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2013-02-20, 2:23 pm

I have nothing to add to this topic. My mind went blank when I started typing. From reading other weather outlets the POTENTIAL is there for a monster but until we get inside of 3 days with some cold air to tap and not having to rely on a ULL to bring it's own cold air I'm going to sit on the fence and munch on some popcorn.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-20, 3:14 pm

Jed33 wrote:Keep us updated DW. maybe you can get a surprise!

Currently 30 degrees at 2 pm. NWS has updated my forecast to wintery mix. cheers

Trending the right way. Started out rain, then rain/sleet to rain then , freezing rain and now wintery mix.

by **Jed33** 2013-02-20, 4:37 pm

System is definitely surprising. My sister in Oxford, MS said it was sleeting there about 2PM

by **Toot** 2013-02-20, 5:30 pm

We will need to watch the big upper low that is being progged by guidance. It will likely play a key role in steering/affecting the possible energy that so many of us are watching. Here it is on the 12z euro at 144
Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather 315jvv4

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather 315jvv4

We need this ULL placed just right so that it dont suppress/eat or shear our energy in question as our shortwave will try to slide in underneath it from the west. It looks like we either get one massive cutoff ULL or an intense southern slider type storm IF the second piece of energy is allowed to come eastward and is not affected by the ULL too much. Im not sure ive ever seen a blockier pattern and something massive and intense will likely come from it. What and where is the question?

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2013-02-20, 8:14 pm

Stolen from another weather site but I thought it was a great read:

93 Superstorm BMX weather updates

by **VFL** 2013-02-20, 8:34 pm

Toot at first glance that looks like a severe weather maker but I have not looked at anything else.

by **ballpark** 2013-02-20, 10:43 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

by **snowdog** 2013-02-21, 9:00 am

Meh. Looks like more of the same. Lakes cutter followed by cold and dry. This just hasn't been our year...well it hasn't been our year the last 2 years. It will snow again but at this point late in the season it is time to bring on spring/summer/fall and reshuffle the deck for our area. The pattern has been dreadful for snow lovers in middle TN. We can't get the tele's to match up long enough and we can't seem to get lucky on a perfectly timed event either.

by **VFL** 2013-02-21, 10:11 am

So ready for spring

by **snowdog** 2013-02-21, 11:11 am

VFL wrote:So ready for spring

As much as I love cold and snow...I agree. Snow in March is about as useless as goose sh1t on a pump handle. Lets end yet another dreadful winter and hope for something better next year. Although with another possible La Nina on the horizon with a -PDO and +AMO...my hopes aren't all that high.

by **Toot** 2013-02-21, 5:46 pm

Whether its March or December snow is snow to me beer

and ive enjoyed this winter so far as it has been pretty active where I live. I will probably finish with normal to a even a hair above on snowfall here.

Anyways the pattern is primed for something decent and the state will likely see at least one (maybe 2-3) snow event(s) over the next couple of weeks.The 12z euro is close to a big southern slider and the 12z Canadian has that monster cutoff low ive been talking about which verbatim would likely be a heavy snow event in parts of the state. The 12z GFS has our energy too but its more of a clipper type system. Really active split flow pattern emerging with west based NAO blocking..could be a fun couple of weeks coming up

by **Toot** 2013-02-21, 5:55 pm

18z GFS looks alot like the 12z euro but the upper low shears it as it comes east. This will need to be watched!

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather F150

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather F150

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-21, 6:12 pm

i am so ready for SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, it isnt funny... and i pray to god its a balls to walls active also... me and the boys ready for a good chase... and with the rising gas prices... trying to keep it pretty close to my area this season rock on

by **jmundie** 2013-02-21, 6:28 pm

I'd love to see some proof of these chases you claim to go on bruce

by **jmundie** 2013-02-21, 6:30 pm

There's gonna be somethign in the 120-156 timeframe for sure. 18z ensembles. There's no question which one is my favorite.

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather F144