Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

by **dahrkdaiz** 2013-02-23, 4:19 pm

windstorm wrote:This look like another write off except in the favorite spots over the northern half of the state like it's been all winter long. There something way out there but when you keep pushing days and days out then it turns up nothing. Put it in the books folks except for those places that have got some snow this year. This winter for most of Tenn is in the books. Dud, Dud, Dud. Two in a row. Models are like Presidents, they lie.

Seriously? It's stuff like this that makes me not want to come to these weather forums.

Anyways, I find it interesting that local mets are biting on 3 days of snow this far out for the K-Town area. I'm no met by any stretch of the imagination, but the maps and models seem to be all over the place, I find it hard to keep track of what's out there x_x.

by **windstorm** 2013-02-23, 4:36 pm

Tell me what i said was wrong? If it hurt your feeling then am sorry. But if you ever been in a weather forum you should be use to seeing post like this. If it not going to happen except in the places i mention they may get it why would it upset you. It's better to be upset now than later. Am not sure, but we are not always talking about what going on in your backyard. We are talking about the state of Tenn. Anyway have a good rest of the weekend. And i am truly sorry if it hurt your feelings. Am just saying what i think. Don't mean it's going to happen. Don't give up so easy. pals

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 4:44 pm

windstorm wrote: Put it in the books folks except for those places that have got some snow this year. This winter for most of Tenn is in the books. Dud, Dud, Dud. Two in a row.

sorry windstorm..but you or nostradamus cant make predictioncs like that with any acurracy. There is no such thing as being phsychic! This is science not magic!

by **windstorm** 2013-02-23, 4:57 pm

What wrong with you toot.?? This will be my last post. Goodbye.

by **snowdog** 2013-02-23, 4:59 pm

dahrkdaiz wrote:Anyways, I find it interesting that local mets are biting on 3 days of snow this far out for the K-Town area. I'm no met by any stretch of the imagination, but the maps and models seem to be all over the place, I find it hard to keep track of what's out there x_x.

Just know that those 3 days of snow will more than likely be very light if anything at all.

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 5:08 pm

Just saying you're not phsycic thats all Windstorm..no need to get mad lol!

by **John1122** 2013-02-23, 5:11 pm

If you do well with clippers, you're looking decent for getting some accumulation. Especially if it arrives from say 5 pm to 7 am. If it arrives from 10 am to 4 pm you'll have melting issues. The GFS may be way out to lunch, but it should be very cold. Especially in the snow growth zone.

by **snowdog** 2013-02-23, 5:15 pm

John1122 wrote:If you do well with clippers, you're looking decent for getting some accumulation. Especially if it arrives from say 5 pm to 7 am. If it arrives from 10 am to 4 pm you'll have melting issues. The GFS may be way out to lunch, but it should be very cold. Especially in the snow growth zone.

Right now there just isn't a lot of deep moisture being modeled at H7. Of course it is still a bit far out to see the finer details of backside moisture.

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 5:19 pm

snowdog wrote:
Right now there just isn't a lot of deep moisture being modeled at H7. Of course it is still a bit far out to see the finer details of backside moisture.

Not true ...ther is plenty!
Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 F144

by **John1122** 2013-02-23, 5:31 pm

This was 72hr precip earlier today. It will waffle but this is a general map of the potential. This should be all snow with -6 to -12 850s being shown across the state during this timeframe.

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 00zgfs11

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 00zgfs11

by **John1122** 2013-02-23, 5:35 pm

JKL also mentioned earlier that the climatology with this set up would favor snow and that guidance was way too warm next Wed-Sun.

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 5:38 pm

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-23, 6:49 pm

We need the old westerly trend. Looks sort of sucky to me right now. lol!

by **ballpark** 2013-02-23, 7:29 pm

I guess everyone has packed it in for the winter. I figured there would be all kinds of chatter going on about next week on the forum. I suspect next week will be one of the coldest weeks for the month of March than we had seen in the last few years maybe longer than that.

by **snowdog** 2013-02-23, 8:07 pm

Toot wrote:Not true ...ther is plenty!

Might want to check skew-T's on twisterdata. At least in middle-TN pretty dry at the surface and indicative of very light if any moisture making it to the surface. Localized areas in higher elevations may squeak out an inch or two.

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 8:41 pm

Lol the graphics show precip at the surface snowdog rfl

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 9:03 pm

The NAM brings the powerful ULL even closer to the state
Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 2013022318_SER_NAM_500_HGT_ABSVORT_WINDS_072

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 2013022318_SER_NAM_500_HGT_ABSVORT_WINDS_072

by **Reb** 2013-02-23, 9:05 pm

damn wish it were further SE

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-23, 9:20 pm

It looks like a windy cold rain! Then real cold with snow flurries. Nothing big!!! The models only show light precip for the period. We need the ULL to go overhead or slightly south of us to get the decent snow that it will produce to the north and northwest of it! But it is no Shocked

by **Toot** 2013-02-23, 9:35 pm

Jscentraltn...youre not taking into account the great snow ratios..this will be snow squalls as currently modeled.

Meanwhile Larry Cosgrove

But what happens to that troublesome upper shortwave seen on the computer schemes, entering the middle/lower High Plains by February 27? This feature still seems well-organized, and may be able to maintain its strength as it enters the mean 500MB trough axis across the Southeast on Thursday afternoon. Yes, all of the operational models have dropped this feature and show no concerns for heavy snow along the Interstate 95 corridor above Raleigh NC. However, I can tell you that a relatively tranquil and cold solution has relatively low confidence. With increased ridging across Quebec, teleconnections would favor a deeper, possibly closed low near the 40 N 70 W "benchmark" on Friday. Time will tell, but do not let this possibility out of your sight if you live from Virginia into Maine!

by **John1122** 2013-02-24, 12:10 am

ballpark wrote:I guess everyone has packed it in for the winter. I figured there would be all kinds of chatter going on about next week on the forum. I suspect next week will be one of the coldest weeks for the month of March than we had seen in the last few years maybe longer than that.

It's been showing pretty much the coldest opening week of March since 1960 across parts of the SE. That was of course the most legendary winter on record for most of Tennessee and the rest of the SE. There was a ton of upslope snow and a couple of major March storms that year.

by **John1122** 2013-02-24, 12:15 am

Once again, this is the 0z 72 hour precip through 144. The 850 0c line is well south of Tennessee throughout this entire period.

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 00zgfs12

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 00zgfs12

by **snowdog** 2013-02-24, 1:41 am

John1122 wrote:Once again, this is the 0z 72 hour precip through 144. The 850 0c line is well south of Tennessee throughout this entire period.

It looks better than it actually is. Again, if you look at the skew-t's on twisterdata from hour 84 to 144 on the 00z gfs, maybe a couple of 6 hour increments shows a half way decently saturated column.

Looking at Wundermap for tonights 00z Euro, it agrees. Nothing much to see outside of the higher elevations.

Gotta hope on of these spokes of energy rotating down from the north over perform.

by **John1122** 2013-02-24, 1:50 am

That weather underground map only picks up 1+ inches of snow in a given 3 hour period. Just looking at the precip maps there are several frames of .05 3 hour periods of precip on the Euro.

Honestly there's not telling how strong a given spoke of energy will be until they're on top of you. That and timing are everything. Unless there are major changes I feel decent that Nashville and points east have a shot of 1-3 inches of snowfall if the energy passes at a favorable time of day. Most being on the lower end of that 1-3.

Much higher amounts will be possible in the favored upslope areas.

by **John1122** 2013-02-24, 2:00 am

These look decent here between 90-120 or so. Even after this the column often looks somewhat saturated from 750mb or so down.

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 Gfs_3_11

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 Gfs_3_11

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 Gfs_3_10

Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather - Page 3 Gfs_3_12

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