Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

I will take an inch of snow more than I had in the last two years anything else is gravy.

tom23 wrote:I agree with snowdog here. This doesn't look like a CAA event to me, more like what he mentioned, night time cooling with slight wet bulbing occuring. I don't think this one will be anything major, maybe 1-2 inches, but again, its too early to talk amounts.

From the MRX AFD this morning. Note the last sentence below.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LUMBER VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER FEATURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT WITH WEST
THROUGH NORTHERLY FLOW...PRODUCING COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMINGLY
FOREVER.

This looks like it could end up as a bone dry cold, meaning the air will be too dry for any decent snow. I could see this scenario play out as it has so often in the past

tom23 wrote:This looks like it could end up as a bone dry cold, meaning the air will be too dry for any decent snow. I could see this scenario play out as it has so often in the past

You may want to read the latest discussion from MRX. They are expecting several pieces of energy to rotate thru later this week with the northwest flow. Also, they are expecting colder temps than the current GFS guidance. This will lead to a high ratio event. This looks like a good 1-3" event for the Plateau and NE TN. The real fireworks look to begin next week as our blocking pattern really takes hold. The 9-10 day period on the 12Z Euro was golden today for a majority of TN.

Good posting^^^

tom23 wrote:This looks like it could end up as a bone dry cold, meaning the air will be too dry for any decent snow. I could see this scenario play out as it has so often in the past

Tom have you looked at the computer models? Literally everyone of them have snow showers over the area. I can say for a fact that elevated areas will see snow. Like a Northwest flow event.

Toot wrote:

tom23 wrote:I agree with snowdog here. This doesn't look like a CAA event to me

There were many people who agreed with Adolf Hitler back in the 1930's and 40's but they're all dead now!

LMFAO !

this looks like snow to me! the only dry air is going to be in your house from having to run so much heat from the cold air. it will snow just don't know how much?????

Toot, you referring to snowdog in the same context as Hitler is a derogatory comment as well as a personal insult. That goes against forum rules so your comment has been deleted

tom23 wrote:Toot, you referring to snowdog in the same context as Hitler is a derogatory comment as well as a personal insult. That goes against forum rules so your comment has been deleted

Lol..are you serious? I was just making an analogy I didnt even say snowdogs name in my post. BTW your mod abilities have now also been deleted.. there brainchild!

Tom tone yourself.... as far as any dry air it just flows when you open up.

Get a grip Tom....

Most of the time in an argument on here both sides have somewhat of a point but not this time. THIS IS NOT A VIRGA SITUATION !!!

tom23 wrote:I agree with snowdog here. This doesn't look like a CAA event to me, more like what he mentioned, night time cooling with slight wet bulbing occuring. I don't think this one will be anything major, maybe 1-2 inches, but again, its too early to talk amounts.

When were we ever talking about more than 1-2 inches beside areas in the Great Smokey Mountains? You like in East Tennessee and you know what kind of event we are talking about. This is post ULL Northwest flow snow showers. Convective like snow showers that form from spokes of energy riding around the bottom of the trough.

i have been a big weather lover n fan for a long time...and been on weather forums now for at least years... but this year has taken a toll on alot of us... i really think the lack of weather is really driving alot of us nuts... like not cold enough for snow and winter storms here lately, and when we get a strong system to come into the area, its just enough cold to mess with a severe situation and still not cold enough for our snow, that we all want... here is hoping... as we head into march, which is one o my favorite months weather wise... things start to pick up big time... i am hoping for a march super snowstom and later, hope we can get on some big severe weather outbreaks... something is bound to bust here fairly soon.WE ALL NEED SOME ACTION

Tom,
What's the highest level of English grammar you have completed? Toot did not call anyone Hitler. You can't fix stupid

TOM I did NOT call snowdog hitler. Stop with the nonsense or you're going to lose posting abilities for the second time. Which will be a record here at this site..lol

alright cya

Peace

Adios Muchacho and dont try to pull any silly shit this time! Im currently banning all the IP's that you have logged on with Thomas..and to think I AM the one who stuck up for you and gave you a second chance. If it would have been up to everyone else you would have never been allowed back on here to begin with. Wish you the best..but

Bruce, i agree with u bud. This winter hasnt been too active with winter storms in the south. If robert gamble is even halfway correct with a colder regime and ACTIVE regime setup, then we should see perhaps one good event. Like ballpark mentioned, i would be happy with a 1 to 2 inch event to be honest with you. The euro looked exciting, but its wayyy out there. Usually when the euro goes back and forth between runs with a system, it hones in on something after the third run showing it from my personal experience.

Mrgolf wrote:Bruce, i agree with u bud. This winter hasnt been too active with winter storms in the south. If robert gamble is even halfway correct with a colder regime and ACTIVE regime setup, then we should see perhaps one good event. Like ballpark mentioned, i would be happy with a 1 to 2 inch event to be honest with you. The euro looked exciting, but its wayyy out there. Usually when the euro goes back and forth between runs with a system, it hones in on something after the third run showing it from my personal experience.

yeah kevin, the euro looked really interesting for most of tennessee, day 9 and 10... just hope it holds this time... .we see on tonights 0z run

Bruce, imo, i think it would be a strong Ull instead of a storm in gulf if we saw something in that timeframe. I would like to see a gulf storm, if everything lined up for us. As we all know, winter is slowly coming to an end technically on calendar.

Jscentraltn wrote:this looks like snow to me! the only dry air is going to be in your house from having to run so much heat from the cold air. it will snow just don't know how much?????

Lol..I just seen this post.

Looking like a little more precip back toward I-65.