Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Neals wrote:

Toot wrote:Yeah..that particular member explodes into a beast as it moves eastward. I will take the first one in the middle too.

Here's to "Beastmode"

I'll to that!!!!

jmundie wrote:There's gonna be somethign in the 120-156 timeframe for sure. 18z ensembles. There's no question which one is my favorite.

You really buying into this Mundie? I guess I somewhat see the potential but I'm just not ready to buy in yet. It's kind of a funky set-up where a strong ULL gets stuck in the northeast and pulls down some cold but the real cold is way up in Canada. Also the southern slider is pretty weak and is going to fight being sheared out. It's kind of a damned if you do damned if you don't. We need the stronger ULL in the northeast to help pull down enough cold to work with but then you run the risk of shearing out the southern low.

Euro would be nice! But I think it is overdone. Will have to wait and see its always last min change that sucks. Looks good for now no good later.

snowdog wrote:

jmundie wrote:There's gonna be somethign in the 120-156 timeframe for sure. 18z ensembles. There's no question which one is my favorite.

You really buying into this Mundie? I guess I somewhat see the potential but I'm just not ready to buy in yet. It's kind of a funky set-up where a strong ULL gets stuck in the northeast and pulls down some cold but the real cold is way up in Canada. Also the southern slider is pretty weak and is going to fight being sheared out. It's kind of a damned if you do damned if you don't. We need the stronger ULL in the northeast to help pull down enough cold to work with but then you run the risk of shearing out the southern low.

Yes - I think we're gonna have the possibility of some snow in that timeframe, but I think we probably get dryslotted, unless the ULL can come further south and occlude faster.

Modeling is still all over the place with this thing. The precip shield from the ULL doesn't make sense, but the euro is getting closer and closer to something nice. The 534 closed core of the ULL goes right over BNA on last nights run.

Mundie, where is your location? Thanks.

Nashville

I know this is kind of way out but we have been burn before so just for old time sakes let just look at what could, would, should have been a good snow .http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs192hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

Lol....Windstorm are u talking about the past or the future

jmundie wrote:Nashville

a.k.a. flurry dusting capitol of the world.

Early March. First few days

gfs192hr_sfc_ptyp.gif show less now than it did when i first posted it. It had it down into NE Alabama.

David Aldrich is all in already. He has 60% snow in his forecast for next Friday and Saturday.

Im all in too..I have never seen a more impressive setup for a major storm somewhere in the TN/Oh Valley

If it still shows up come Sunday, we may need a thread for next Fri. Into Sat. I reallly like the looks of that time period through the first week of March

John1122 wrote:David Aldrich is all in already. He has 60% snow in his forecast for next Friday and Saturday.

Just curious who is David Aldrich?

Met for WVLT CBS knoxville

This is Aldrich's current forecast.

First snow threat when strong upper low advects colder air into the valley

k we are coming up on the most impressive pattern of the winter so far. All the key elements are there for a major to historic east coast snowstorm around the first of March with less significant snows in the east starting Feb 27. This is the type of pattern that breeds powerhouse winter storms folks!

Hey guys! Been to busy at work really to look at anything! So whats the chatter I looked this morning can't really see anything big just some cold and snow showers! Or did I miss it some where? Thanks

Hey toot! Where that come from? Never mind the statement! You answered my question when I posted I did't see your post on here thanks

Other than the snow showers that fill in after tue for the mid state! Do you think this poss snow storm will be for all of Tennessee or just up east then to the ne?

Instead of flurries at my house, do you think I can really get significant accumulation in South Knoxville? The only snow that stuck was the event in mid January when we got around 4". Coming from Florida last summer, that was a beautiful site. I'm praying for this to come to pass. Let us have a historic snow storm. Amen!!

Toot wrote:k we are coming up on the most impressive pattern of the winter so far. All the key elements are there for a major to historic east coast snowstorm around the first of March with less significant snows in the east starting Feb 27. This is the type of pattern that breeds powerhouse winter storms folks!

As modeled the pattern is almost too extreme. The northern stream is dominating the flow and not allowing anything to come out of the southern stream. Maybe something can pop once the pattern relaxes or if the pattern is being modeled too extreme.

This look like another write off except in the favorite spots over the northern half of the state like it's been all winter long. There something way out there but when you keep pushing days and days out then it turns up nothing. Put it in the books folks except for those places that have got some snow this year. This winter for most of Tenn is in the books. Dud, Dud, Dud. Two in a row. Models are like Presidents, they lie.