Severe Storms possible April 10th-11th 2013

From NWS Huntsville



Here is the audio briefing from them explaining this severe threat

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/bmx/mmbrief/mmbrief.mp3

if the mid level cap get broken a little earlier than thought, than there will be the possibility of some discrete cells out ahead of the squall line, course those will have a good chance to go tornadic , particullar back further west n the midsouth.

the 18z gfs is the start of the troughs main vortex energy just now entering the west coast... so from here out, we should be getting a much better idea of whats going to happen with this severe event... 18zgfs already showing more instability than any run today... cape approaching 2000k/jt west tenn.... and a muich more better organized slp... gong tobe interesting see if this is a trend

tennessee storm09 wrote:the 18z gfs is the start of the troughs main vortex energy just now entering the west coast... so from here out, we should be getting a much better idea of whats going to happen with this severe event... 18zgfs already showing more instability than any run today... cape approaching 2000k/jt west tenn.... and a muich more better organized slp... gong tobe interesting see if this is a trend

Short range HI RES models are fixing to get a hold of it too. We'll have a much better idea this time tomorrow night

0zgfs continues its trend to a stronger solution... with the development of another surface low pressure over central Arkansas then it moves up towards the bootheel of Missouri that will aid in backing of the surface winds, that will only aid in the tornadic development of the stronger cells.

Here is what the latest hi res nam looks like for west TN very lat wednesday night/very early Thursday morning

Todays run of the euro was quite impressive looking as system develops ugly neg tilt

Wow nothern Miss looks bad on that hi res nam model. Is this just a wind threat for us?

VFL wrote:Wow nothern Miss looks bad on that hi res nam model. Is this just a wind threat for us?

Id say it will be mostly a wind threat but isolated tornadoes

looks like mid levels will have a strong cap to contend with for the most part... that will prohibit any cells to get going out ahead of the cold front... so forcing will take hold n force mainly a linear situation... this is really a potent system crossing the country, with a pretty good winter side to this thing... just seems like we cant score a big severe event, damn, what is it going to take... still look for some marginal wind damage threat... and maybe a quick short lived spin up or two... hoping we can get into a better system later, as climo we are fixing to head into our best chances of severe outbreaks over the next six to eight weeks

tennessee storm09 wrote:looks like mid levels will have a strong cap to contend with for the most part... that will prohibit any cells to get going out ahead of the cold front... so forcing will take hold n force mainly a linear situation... this is really a potent system crossing the country, with a pretty good winter side to this thing... just seems like we cant score a big severe event, damn, what is it going to take... still look for some marginal wind damage threat... and maybe a quick short lived spin up or two... hoping we can get into a better system later, as climo we are fixing to head into our best chances of severe outbreaks over the next six to eight weeks

What is your obsession with having tornadoes and devastating weather within your own community? I don't post here often and would consider myself more of a longtime lurker, but I see these types of posts from you all the time. I love severe weather more than anybody I personally know, so I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud or anything. I'm all for a good t-storm with some hail and wind, but I would prefer the violent tornadoes stay out on the plains where they belong. This ain't Kansas. People get hurt and die around here in this concrete jungle. I hope nobody takes any offense to this post, as that wasn't my intentions behind it. I just feel some people need to choose their words more appropriately when talking about a sometimes sensitive subject. Sorry to get off topic.

I respect your question... and thanx for asking that... I am a chaser and I am obsessed with natures most powerful force... my town has been hit with 3 eff 4s since 1999... I know the damage they can create and devastation of results... I wish nobody gets hit... I have been studying really hard on severe weather lately... always trying to know more... any questions, I be glad to help

Very good rotation on a cell in northern Arkansas.

Arkansas

Looks like a rough evening here tomorrow

EARLY PERIOD PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HOWEVER... AT LEAST A NARROW NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES...WHICH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS COULD EXHIBIT PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CLOCKWISE
CURVATURE...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
PROBABLE...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

If I were a Tornado chaser I would be in northern GA somewhere tomorrow evening but if you could keep those rotating supercells south of me I would appreciate it..ok? Thanks!

Tornado watch for western TN until 3AM CDT

Looks like things are dying out and weakening but I can see some tornadoes forming tomorrow afternoon/evening from northern Al and GA and possibly into SE TN. But particularly N GA into upstate SC/western NC. The tilt of the trough along with favorbale timing will force discrete cells to form during peak heating hours from lunch to about dark tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds but it wouldnt surprise me to see the SPC go moderate risk in these areas.

Getting some good sunshine in Knox this morning. Warm and humid, fells good.

Lightly overcast with some blue sky's showing. Feels very humid but DP's are 58-60'.

I know this has nothing to do with todays storm but I saw Dr. Forbes from TWC has already put a Tor con of 4 for next Wednesday, thats pretty significant this far out right?

I look for some watches and warnings to be issue a little later today for my area Chatt/Harrison . This is just my feeling about it. Nothing so far from the NWS.

MCD

Tornado watch out for most of E Tenn till 2.A.M

Business is picking up!