Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Several reports of damage in SE Mo and Northern Ark.

jmundie wrote:Serial derecho?

We wont know if it is until all the wind damage reports are in tomorrow night I would guess. Anyways I said POSSIBLE serial dereecho and I still believe thats a decent possibility. Meanwhile you are now under a Tornado watch. Stay safe buddy!

Dyersburg Weather wrote:

jmundie wrote:

Toot wrote:I dont think the organized wind threat will lose any puch after dark. Im expecting a long duration wind event! Possibly a serial Derecho!!

Where's my serial derecho???????????????????????

Toot - its looking increasingly like there won't even be any isolated severe in the entire state.

You got a little ahead of yourself Mundie. Tor Warning right across the river as i type. Things atarting to fire nicely.

Yep DW..very impressive mid latitude cyclone..its massive! You know its got good dynamics when things wait until dark to get serious

The mid latitude cyclone is now down to 990Mb already..could see possible bombogenesis over the next 24 hrs! It will be close but there will definately be some rapid cyclogenesis going oin as the SW goes neg tilt!




Hotlinked radar (self updating)

As expected the HRRR confirms that the two lines will merge into one squall line by the time the cold front reaches the plateau area

I noticed parts of the Plateau are under a TOR watch and it Looks like damaging winds will make it all the way across the state. Here is the 21z run of MRXWRF showing an intense squall line entering east TN into the wee hours this morning


Numerous damaging wind reports will likely continue all the way to the coast of the eastern united states due to a squall line forced by an anomalously strong mid latitude cyclone (Already near 980Mb) and I do believe this system will wind up being classified as a SERIAL DERECHO!

The mesoscale paramaters out ahead of this system are still off the charts and its very early in the morning when they are usually at a minimum! A Serial Derecho is a totally different beast than a Progressive Derecho which occurs during the spring/summer time and are usually much more dangerous due to summer time heat that acts as fuel for the fire!

Serial Derechos usually only occur during the cold season Fall and Winter. I dont know why..but people trip..panic and flip their wig at the mere mention of the word "Derecho" because some of them have caused death and destruction in the past I guess?

By definition.. if the swath of wind damage extends for more than 240 miles and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph along most of its path then the event will be classified as a derecho! I think this system will end up meeting those requirements when its all said and done!

That doesnt mean that hundreds of people are going to die and it doesnt mean multiple homes will be ripped to shreds! People just need to calm down and actually learn what the word "Derecho" actually means before they start acting as if I am calling for death and destruction!!

Anyways A NEW SEVERE T STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED  for a big chunk of the Apps due to the damaging wind threat and I expect one will eventually be issued here in east TN too

Since the SPC hasnt issued a SVR watch for eTN MRX went ahead and put out an SPS for the wind damage threat!

Code:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
115 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

TNZ012>015-035>037-067-081>084-098-099-VAZ001-002-005-006-010830-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-ROANE-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MARION-HAMILTON-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-
RUSSELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...
KINGSTON...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...JASPER...
CHATTANOOGA...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON
115 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 /1215 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/

A COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD OVER WEST TENNESSEE WILL
MOVE APPROACH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AS LINES OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH AS THE SHOWERS MOVE RAPIDLY EAST. FALLEN
TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.


Have a look at the streamlines on this beast. Not often you see such an organized and powerful system!

Disappointed by the lack of rain. Fire danger is always high here the first two weeks of November, I was hoping to get some good moisture on all the leaves that blew off.

I agree John, I was hoping for more rain, thats for sure. However, rain wise, this system was just like the last few when it gets to the plateau, it falls apart. The summer was wet, but something changed the last part of Septwmber, and we've definitely gotten dry. With all the rain we had during the growing season, to make the leaves and trees so green and lush, now that its dry, fire danger is increasing every day. Lets hope we can start getting more moisture in here soon!

"According to the National Weather Service criterion, a derecho is classified as a band of storms that have winds of at least 50 knots (93 km/h; 58 mph) along the entire span of the storm front, maintained over a time span of at least six hours. Some studies add a requirement that no more than two or three hours separate any two successive wind reports"

I do not believe this met the qualification for a derecho.

The swath of wind damage has to extend for more than 240 miles and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph along most not all of its path. If that happens it can be classidied as a derecho

Here is a graphic of wind damage reports I put together on my blog this morning but mind you there still happening in the NE. It will definately be close if it doesnt meet the requirememnts.

Highest wind gust for event: 22MPH. Storm rainfall total: 0.63" Like others have said, I hope this starts to break this dry spell we have been in.

Only 0.22in, of rain for me. Have to say, its hard to believe we were so wet, and now so dry.

Number one - this is not an unbroken line of storms. this was multiple bowing segments and clusters.

Second - a derecho has its own inflow. Just one. Its one big complexe system rather than being a severe wind outbreak due to high winds just about the surface mixing down in heavier thunderstorms.

Seriously Toot - you're better than this. You busted here. We got wind reports, and most of them were non thunderstorm winds.

BUSTED

I always thought a derecho looked like a bowling ball with a tail on it like a asteroid.

Technically this might be a Derecho but IMO I only consider a true Derecho to be like what VFL is saying basically a big ball of mod-heavy rain with even heavier rains usually in the leading edge and basically has warnings all along it the whole time it existed. Ofc that is not the definition but its what I view it as.
Yesterday a lot of them wind reports (especially for Tennessee) was from the wind advisory because I remember seeing wind damage reports in the same area earlier before the storms even hit on the news in them locations around Nashville. Imo yesterdays storm event just didn't materialize for Tennessee at all western Kentucky a little different story.

If this was a Derecho then wouldn't every spring cold front be one too.

the strongest winds we had here were by gradient winds... approaching some 45 mph gust in west tn

jmundie wrote: Number one - this is not an unbroken line of storms. this was multiple bowing segments and clusters.

Number one..that doesnt make one hell of difference in classifying a Derecho Mr Einstein!! LOL...Number two..ive tried to be nice to you during your little idiotic troll fest in this thread but now my civil behavior/manners are over with  and you have definately ask for the meteorological beatdown im about to give you
    

The only time you post here anymore is when YOU THINK (which you dont do too well) I have busted on a forecast! Im guessing this is due to jealousy..but im not sure and IDK or care for that matter!

jmundie wrote:
Second - a derecho has its own inflow. Just one. Its one big complexe system rather than being a severe wind outbreak due to high winds just about the surface mixing down in heavier thunderstorms.

Number three.. you obviously dont know much of anything about Derecho's or what the word Derecho means!

When you refer to a "derecho with its "own inflow" and I might add its cold pool..you're talking about a progressive Derecho which is a totally different beast from this one. Progressive derechos with their own mesoscale inflow/cold pools and such mostly form from  MCV'S..MCS"S.. MCC'S and such during spring and summer type weather patterns! This is when there is a lot of heat/fuel/cape and subtropical ridges around! This one was not a PROGRESSIVE DERECHO it was a SERIAL DERECHO and the inflow is the southerly winds in the warm sector of the LPS or mid latitude cyclone!

jmundie wrote:
Seriously Toot - you're better than this. You busted here. We got wind reports, and most of them were non thunderstorm winds.

Number three.. you have already made yourself look rather foolish all through this thread and you are continuing to do so here!
 

Please stop making an asshat out of yourself! A Serial Derecho's classification requirement is that the swath of wind damage has to extend at least 240.01 miles with wind gust/damage reports of at least 58 mph along the majority of its path. THIS IS THE ONLY REQUIREMENTS THAT HAVE TO BE MET FOR ANY LPS TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A DERECHO! In the future I would suggest you get some more schooling/study and do more homework before trying to debate with someone who happens to have two scientific degrees and already knows what the word "Derecho" means!



Source : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm#strength

jmundie wrote:
BUSTED

And as for your last foolish statement// I only said "POSSIBLE" Serial Derecho so even if one didnt verify (but it did) how in the hell did I bust?

Here is my forecast


Here is the Serial Derecho wind damage repoorts from the SPC



OK then... thanks!