Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

IMO the last half of winter will be cold with another snow or two. I just wish one of snow would be big! I would'nt be surprised if the start of spring is mild and has an even amount of colder days compared to warmer days.

Chew on this for a lil while..just posted to my blog




Alot of forecasters are not even talking about this but the threat of this is very real!! Many forecasters are being decieved by the American model (the GFS) and by the fact that there isnt much NAO blocking!

Well..you dont need NAO blocking when you have "Cross Canadian blocking" (yes..that is a term WXeastern coined) Cross Canadian blocking is when high latitude blocking out west in the North Pacific combines with high latitude/ North Atlantic ocean blocking. They meet up across the country of Canada creating a very suppressed to the south storm track with cold high pressure to the north!

Thats the ingredients needed for a southern snowstorm!!! The european model has been very consistent with this southern stream energy getting involved with the northern stream arctic airmass!

The American model has a known bias that crushes/shears the southern stream energy and thats exactly what its doing in the latest run! This very well could be the biggest snow the east has seen this year and I give it a 65% chance of happening at this time in some shape form or fashion! That is pretty high confidence at this timeframe.

Bastardi is thinking per models the shot of artic air the last week of Jan will be the last one this season east of the Mississippi River.

Bastardi didnt say last one this yr. He said Artic Blast coming last wk of Jan will be worse than last Artic Blast we had the first of Jan.

Eduardo wrote:Bastardi didnt say last one this yr. He said Artic Blast coming last wk of Jan will be worse than last Artic Blast we had the first of Jan.

You're right. I read "could beat last one Miss east" as could be last one Miss east. Sorry.

Look familiar? Haha

I would love to see this come to fruition, and I know the potential is there, but it's now the only model to show this potential up here in E TN the Euro had it to a lesser extent, but lost it overnight. I sure would like to see the GFS and Euro come around to this idea today. The Canadian has not been right in a very long time about much of anything when it was by itself.

The ENSO has dipped further into La-Nina category I didn't expect to see this, as it's a weak Nina now, but it's not "La Nada" anymore lol. Don't know for sure what implications will be on that, but I believe it tends to lead to drier than average conditions around here, depending on how strong it becomes. I think we still have a couple more chances even after this clipper tonight, which is De-ja-vu all over again. Surprise surprise, and the weekend event which appears to be crushed by the northern stream now. Sure we will warm up, but I doubt it's a torch, and we may spend a couple weeks without anything to track, but we will most likely have something to track before February is completely over, even if it takes until Feb. 15th or later. Let the trough go into the west at the beginning of the month. They need rain desperately bad there, and by that time we could use some too. It shouldn't stay there forever, lol sure hasn't this year at all. I'm trying to remain optimistic even in this dry cold Jan. Might as well enjoy the cold and a few snowflakes!

Jed33 wrote:Surprise surprise, and the weekend event which appears to be crushed by the northern stream now.

Dont forget about the almost certain NW trend with gulf lows..just saying!

Jed33 wrote:The ENSO has dipped further into La-Nina category I didn't expect to see this, as it's a weak Nina now, but it's not "La Nada" anymore lol. Don't know for sure what implications will be on that, but I believe it tends to lead to drier than average conditions around here, depending on how strong it becomes. I think we still have a couple more chances even after this clipper tonight, which is De-ja-vu all over again. Surprise surprise, and the weekend event which appears to be crushed by the northern stream now. Sure we will warm up, but I doubt it's a torch, and we may spend a couple weeks without anything to track, but we will most likely have something to track before February is completely over, even if it takes until Feb. 15th or later. Let the trough go into the west at the beginning of the month. They need rain desperately bad there, and by that time we could use some too. It shouldn't stay there forever, lol sure hasn't this year at all. I'm trying to remain optimistic even in this dry cold Jan. Might as well enjoy the cold and a few snowflakes!

GOD yessss... la nina heading into spring...     

From what I can tell, the only thing that matters for us as far as getting actual good snows, it having a -NAO/-AO combination and not having an absolutely awful Pacific.

If we have a great Pacific and no -NAO we get cold with dry clippers. If we have an absolutely awful Pacific even with -NAO it floods the country with Pacific air masses.

If we have a slightly bad to neutral Pacific with a -NAO/-AO it's game on.

John1122 wrote:From what I can tell, the only thing that matters for us as far as getting actual good snows, it having a -NAO/-AO combination and not having an absolutely awful Pacific.

If we have a great Pacific and no -NAO we get cold with dry clippers. If we have an absolutely awful Pacific even with -NAO it floods the country with Pacific air masses.

If we have a slightly bad to neutral Pacific with a -NAO/-AO it's game on.

i agree with this post 100 percent... outstanding point... SEMPER FI

Toot, if any of this comes together way out in weenie land we could be looking at a good snow.

Cold morning with a low of 11.

Hey...u guys seeing anything interesting for middle tn on the night of the 28 and possibly the 29?

Pman1618 wrote:Hey...u guys seeing anything interesting for middle tn on the night of the 28 and possibly the 29?

Looking at the models I didn't see anything for that time. But the euro is hinting at something coming around feb 1st. Which looks good for most of tn. Which the NAO goes net around that time. So maybe! Feb will be fun for weather fans of all types!
  

Low of 6.8 this morning was a bit of a surprise.

6 here at the house this AM 24 was the high here today. Just a light skiff of snow that sublimated this morning. I just want the troff axis to slide back some just retrograde a tiny bit. Is that too much to ask lol

Jed33 wrote:I just want the troff axis to slide back some just retrograde a tiny bit. Is that too much to ask lol

High of 25.8 today. Apparently this year it is. LOL. Can't believe it being as cold as it has this year, all I have to account for is a dusting of snow. At least it beats having warm weather. Hopefully Feb. looks better?

Wow the wunderground forecast for my area calls for 3-5 inches one night and 5-8 on another like 2 nights later!

Pman1618 wrote:Wow the wunderground forecast for my area calls for 3-5 inches one night and 5-8 on another like 2 nights later!

Where do you live, Pman?

Don't pay attention to that forecast! Those change with every model run. The euro still showing some snow around the 1st but looks to be taking the heaviest to the ne of our area. Other than that stuck in nw flow if anything a dusting.
  

Down to 2 here at the house this morning. I have to say this is definitely the winter for COLD!! It hasn't been this cold consistently in a very long time. I don't even know if 1985 consistently had shot after shot of arctic air. That said it's definitely WAY drier than 1985. I just find it hard to believe that we can't get more snow than we have gotten to show for it. The super cold air is the reason I guess along with the troff axis. I talked with some of my guys at work yesterday that we're attempting to install some termite bait stations and they said the ground was frozen to a depth of about 4in. And that was before last night and today. I'm guessing areas in the shade may eclipse a frozen depth of 6in or more before we get above freezing. Amazingly deep freeze!

Went down to 1.9 here this morning here.   Come on snow! Where are you?

Down to 6 this morning. Lowest so far this winter is 4 IMBY. When i had 4 Airport had 5,.. When i had 6 they had 7. Not sure if this is there low for the day. Two times in a month in single digits lows is kind of uncommon here. But am sure it happen before, it just been a while. 2009 was last time we had single digits. Last year the lowest it got IMBY was 17. Have a good weekend everyone.