Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

It looks like the track of the moisture would favor the mountains? Oh well, I am going to be waiting eagerly either way.

3 to 5 inches and a high of 8 on Monday is my forecast right now. Taking me back to the 70s.  

Most 7 day planners I have looked at have a high of low 50's and a low of about 15 for Sunday. That seems like a major drop in temps for one day!

Dyersburg Weather wrote:3 to 5 inches and a high of 8 on Monday is my forecast right now. Taking me back to the 70s.  

Wow..Lol..MEG is not holding back huh?

Toot wrote:

Dyersburg Weather wrote:3 to 5 inches and a high of 8 on Monday is my forecast right now. Taking me back to the 70s.  

Wow..Lol..MEG is not holding back huh?

i just got off with phone with a MEG forecaster... i know most of them over there, since i talk to them quite a bit during severe wx outbreaks... they saying depending on runs with nam gfs tonight... winter storm watch may be needed to expand south to the i 40 corridor, madison haywood henderson counties

Toot wrote:

Dyersburg Weather wrote:3 to 5 inches and a high of 8 on Monday is my forecast right now. Taking me back to the 70s.  

Wow..Lol..MEG is not holding back huh?

Yeah. They went all in on the 12z GFS.

I didnt realize the NAM was so agressive with snowfall..the NAM is usually very stingy with snowfall. The HI res usually more so. Here is the latest HI RES NAM..a TN/OH valley special if u will?

Toot wrote:I didnt realize the NAM was so agressive with snowfall..the NAM is usually very stingy with snowfall. The HI res usually more so. Here is the latest HI RES NAM..a TN/OH valley special if u will?

Poor old Chattanooga.

One of the most interesting AFD's from MRX that ive seen in quite a while..as they are usually a grinch when it comes to snowfall! Haha 
 

Code:

000
FXUS64 KMRX 032109
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SOME AIR MASS MODERATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES W-SW. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS WILL DROP
TEMPS INTO THE TEENS IN MOST SPOTS. CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. IT REMAINS SHALLOW...BELOW 850 MB...SO WILL ONLY SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STEAMING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...THEN THE FRONT WITH THE RAIN/WIND/SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SWALLOW UP THE AREA IN COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK AS THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE STRONG.

FOR MONDAY THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES COMING VERY LOW IN THE TROPOSPHERE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING TO BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS
GENERATED.  LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHTEST LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  THIS ALSO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG
DURATION UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT--THE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...BUT WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO LOW...IT SHOULD
ACCUMULATE STEADILY OVER THIS PERIOD.  WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY
KEEPING VALLEY LOCATIONS IN TN 1-2 INCHES...AND 1-3 IN VALLEYS IN
VA.  CAPPING MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS AT ABOUT 8 INCHES IN THE SMOKIES FOR
NOW.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTREMELY COLD NATURE OF THIS
AIR MASS.  LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--60+ HOURS BELOW
FREEZING.

GOING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY LOOKS WEAKER IN THE MODELS TODAY AS MORE ENERGY IS
FOCUSING WEST IN THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  JUST
GOING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...HAVING TO MENTION
FREEZING RAIN...BUT AGAIN POPS WILL BE LIGHT.

KEEPING SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR FRIDAY SINCE MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND.

   

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WINTRY WEATHER INTO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR DRIVEN BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CHANGING THE
RAIN QUICKLY TO SNOW. MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDERS.

ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-040600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.140105T0900Z-140106T0300Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-
HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON
347 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE

* TIMING...SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EARLY EVENING

* IMPACTS...SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLY CREATING SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

  

Saturday Night: Breezy. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Wind gusts to near 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Snow and rain in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulations possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Temperature falling into the lower 20s in the afternoon. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Sunday Night: Much colder. A slight chance of snow in the evening...then a chance of flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Wind gusts to near 25 mph in the evening. Chance of snow 20 percent.

Monday: Much colder. Partly sunny in the morning...then clearing. Highs 5 to 10.

I hope we do not get left out of the snow event in East tn

VFL wrote:

Toot wrote:I didnt realize the NAM was so agressive with snowfall..the NAM is usually very stingy with snowfall. The HI res usually more so. Here is the latest HI RES NAM..a TN/OH valley special if u will?

Poor old Chattanooga.

I know, I know. We got ours in 2010 and 2011 to make up for a 10 year drought. We are driving up to Signal Mtn Sunday. It's only a 20 minute drive from our house. We go up there to see the grandbaby on Sundays  anyway. Maybe see enough to take out my son in laws Teryx. They got around an inch last night so maybe a few inches is not out of the question up there.

A few inches of snow and some Ice Bowl football to watch. Sounds good.

The New run of the NAM looks warmer precip is further north west! Along with the track of the low. Waiting on the new GFS.

Gfs looked about the same. Not as heavy with the precip. It it a little slower than the nam. A tough call if you ask me. Even with accum. Nam has the least and gfs has the most. I would say 1-3" but it all depends on how fast the precip moves out!

Yeah I agree that's what Todd Howell was saying. Aldrich is still going 3-5 either way looks like a pretty heavy band setting up, although narrow. He still believes everyone does about the same with this one. I could see it more along the 1-3 range more than 3-5 but either way another run with something. Still showing below zero lows for all of E TN

Agreed with the 1-3"

From past experience.. the further west you are the better you will do with these type of events too

Downsloping ugh too bad we can't just find someone with a lot of land around here and just keep pushing dirt up with dozers off his property higher and higher to where we could get higher than the plateau! Then we'd be in business haha. Let's see, my ridge is at 1500 ft. I have several neighbors with 100 acre farms. Let's see, we would only need to pile up about 1k ft of dirt with dozers and heavy equipment to get there. We could build a lodge on it for all who wanted to come. haha charge admission for outsiders. Oh well it'd be nice I can dream right. Anyhow back to reality. Everyone better use tomorrow to winterize your homes, barns, buildings, etc...if you haven't already. This looks like a doozy of an arctic airmass

Hah, I don't know if it would work quite that way Jed. You'd have to make the plateau go away if you're in an area that gets downsloped from it. And it actually is 3000-3500 feet from Cumberland Co into SE Kentucky.

Haha yeah, your right John. That is true wasn't thinking about the N Plateau being that high but it is in spots. Oh well, nice to dream I guess. Think I'm gonna load the family up and drive over to the mtns right now. Newfound Gap is about an hour, not sure if it's reopened or not, but it's Saturday and it's cold and I'm winterized as much as I can I think for next week, so I'm headed for the hills. I won't be able to go next week due to work, so might as well take advantage now I guess.

Anybody want to go duck hunting with me Monday morning ?  

A couple of my buddy's went last weekend over to Arkansas. They got 13 I have 3 duck and 2 geese in the freezer. Unless you have central heat and air in your blind I'm stayin home.   

Still really don't see this! Unless the colder air gets here quicker. The past few runs of the models still show a littler warmer and most of the precip ahead of the front.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ohx&gc=7

I know there will be snow showers behind this. But if someone sees something different that I'm not seeing correct me please. All I know is it is going to be cold!
  

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Anybody want to go duck hunting with me Monday morning ?  

I would think most of the sloughs and holes will be freezing up? You got a place on Reelfoot or the big river?