Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Also looking at the 51 ensembles on the euro, for the 15 day snow forecast, it is showing our chances for snow are pretty high!!!! maybe a couple of snowstorms on the horizon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shhhhhhh.....

Hamilton county schools were on a 2 hour delay this morning. Now, for whatever reason the powers that be have closed the entire system for the day. It seems silly to me. From reports I've read there are no problems on the roads. They are saying there were a few icy patches in the rural areas. Pretty ridiculous IMO but that's just my thoughts.

They close schools now if the word snow,clouds, cold weather. Back many years ago when it was cold and we went to school, the school systems would keep schools open, if you wanted to go to school you went. If not, you stay home. It was simple back then. People use that good old common sense when making decisions. Now when it snowed they did close schools.. Now you want to hear the one where I use to walk to school in a foot of snow in Fla ?

I wonder if the new GFS will move storms west and north like the old one would do many of the times?

I'm sure it will! It has started that trend already with the storm going under us late next week.... To be honest, my post will become less, because I'm about out of gas with this season.. It has been an interesting season for sure... Looking At alot of data this morning, nao,ao,epo,pna... Not looking good, every-time they show to go in our favor bam... Same with nao it was prog to go neg during this time frame.. Well not going to happen..... Enjoy the warm week guys..

Weather is boring as hell. If I wanted this crap, I'd have lived in southern California (and subsequently killed myself). LOL!

Still trying to get a handle on the storm poss late week!!! Does anyone think it has the potential to blow up into something bigger for us?

I don't know but I wish it would. There's looks like some moisture is there. Does anybody have a picture of the models around the 3-5 day timeframe? The ones I have seen look similar to other winter storms that have happened. However, toot usually has the models and a good ideal if they are on the right track. Toot is MIA, so I consider that a bad sign.

Here it is neals! This is the 18z GFS this is as close as it gets to us.... The 12z gem is closer with the northern edge of the precip... 

It's almost like this past wed, the setup about the same. I remember posting it was showing it to be a good snowstorm for us, then went away to only come back the night before which I guess some off you guys up east got some snow from that, I just had a verga storm.. This was showing 3 days ago to be a big storm to go away days later to come back but run south of us... So I would say what you got last wed may be what you get out of this...

Oh,

Here is what the 12z euro had it is further south....

there will be more precip northward than what is shown just like any gulf low does. The difference between this system and last one is that the last one was more of an open wave where this one is a legit and classic gulf low.

We need the trough at 500mb ti be more neutrally tited than the positive tilt that is being modeled. i think we have a very decent chance at a few inches

Yeah! Looking at all the runs from today from all models, they have started the northward trend. The gem is most north.. The 0z run of that model has just about all of tn south of 40 getting some action. I just wish these things would shoot ne instead of Ene. Waiting on the 0z euro run!!!!!!

Canadian ensembles look snowy!!

850temps


Precip

Any good news?

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/eps_t2m_snow_c_east_61(15).png If this came true, I would be in the 2 to 3 inch snow range. Smokie would rack up.

Neals I haven't looked much today, but just checked the euro and it looks more promising now than the other models it has about i65 east getting precip now.... It looks slower with the storm and a little warmer so it's hard to say... I've been burnt a lot windstorm by that darn control run On the euro all season.. It looks good though, but overdone!

I will say today was awesome!!!! I hit 65.7 for my high. I know it's not going too last, but man it was almost spring fever time for me

I just went and looked at some of the essembles from the models, they all have came way north with the precip on the latest runs... I would say there will be more precip on the next few runs if the trend continues... Still alot of uncertainty with the track...

That for sure. Monday has some promise to. But as always have to be careful with these model runs. They have been bad this year, to miss so many times. I guess like they say, take it one day at a time. I had around 65/66 today. So I went walking over at the park today. Good day to get out. Liking my new Davis Weather Station. Just hope it hold up. I have a Acu -Rite also online, and it does a pretty fair job. Only thing about it is the Pressure is always reading to low. Have a a good day tomorrow....

Toot!!!! If you are on later can you look at and compare,  if you have time and explain what the diffrence the nam is doing with the storm from the 18z and the new 0z... Talking as far as looking at the 500mb vorticity is it phasing the storm now or is it just slowing down? This area I'm just now trying to understand..... Thanks

Well it is starting to look interesting again with this next storm, all the models have came north and west as I expected from looking at the essembles yesterday... But with a stronger storm, now it looks like warmer air will come with it so that may be an issue. We will see

Here is the 6z gfs! You can see we have the precip now, but no cold air....