Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Jscentraltn wrote:Toot!!!! If you are on later can you look at and compare,  if you have time and explain what the diffrence the nam is doing with the storm from the 18z and the new 0z... Talking as far as looking at the 500mb vorticity is it phasing the storm now or is it just slowing down? This area I'm just now trying to understand..... Thanks

Looks like its trying tp phase at 84 on both runs! The NAVGEM and EURO are in really close agreement with each other the NAVGEM crushes the state of TN but the euro is a lil warmer. I like what im seeing and I think this is going to be a major winter storm for most of the state even tho the models arent quite showing it yet but they sure as hell are trending that way. I will wait for 12z guidance to come in and may start a thread

Toot! Your right, just looking at the 12z GFS it is colder and stronger with heavy precip now, compared to the 6z. This thing my be explosive.. I know it is 3 days away but I think it has a good chance... From Nashville east may get hammered once that thing cuts the corner and wraps up...

I think this thing still has room to come further nw..... On later runs, but man it bombs out at 992mb WOW!!!

Everyone remember what that first model run looked like from the new GFS? Then it fizzled out. It's like it's now saying oh yeah, I knew it all along haha. If this storm does come to pass, it will be further proof that this new GFS still has a long ways to go. The Nav/Gem of all models, followed by the Euro has been leading the way on this storm

Well, NM the euro is way to warm this time for any substantial snow. Maybe a little at the end.

It looks like it shifted a little east from the 0z run on the euro.... It would probably be a heavy wet snow event! It is still 3 days away, I can see it continue to go in are favor though... I just hope I don't turn out to be to far west.

There calling for rain Friday for here. Hi's in the 40's low' in the 30's.

Its been so long since we have had anything to track. My pants are getting tight.

Just may be to warm this time for anything to talk about other than rain. I think rain will be the predominate feature for this event. Maybe next week something to look at.

Got to remember guys! The surface is showing warm, but there will be an artic front just to the north, the storm will be strong enough to pull in the cold... It is still 3 days away so the models will change some... I don't think it will be an all rain event, I see wet snow!!! We will see...

Here just for fun!!! If you can seem them.. 51 members off of the euro 12z. As you can see nothing set in stone with track of storm.... A couple even show it coming into tn... It's going to fun to track

The 18z GFS is showing colder with some snow, compared to the 12z run.. It also has it dropping to 990mb right of the coast. If it can intensify quicker and stay further west that would be nice!

Hey toot! I know your more of a climo guy.... But check out the new nam run that thing is really digging in now and blowing it up! Will it draw in to much warm air our can it produce its own cold? I would post it but I've got to run... Talk soon!

Well here is the total snowfall from that 0z nam run.... It has an all snow event for me!

Man no luck for us in the valley..

Boy I hope that pans out. The heaviest part on that last Nam model run is right over me!

Here is the total snowfall from the 0z gfs.... Looks about the same as the nam....

Here is the 0z euro snowfall... All runs are the same!

Guy's this is a way's out and I don't have to tell you but Feb 1 - 4 is looking good for snow. Just something to look at and hope for. Does anyone see any true arctic air coming anytime soon like single digit numbers for lows and highs in the teens and 20's ? Just something to keep the board alive.

Well now that that is out of the way! Back to model mayham........ The next storm that is showing for next weekend, will have artic air not like this little one we just had... The models have showed this storm off and on now well over a week now..but can it really attack the artic or will it be down and out? Feb may turn out to be very cold and snowy around here..

I know guys! We seen it a hundred times already..... This looks like a dup run for this last system. But anyways for fun here it is...

that 540 line is scary....

One of these is bound to come true!

Like the picture you show on the snow at your house. I think it was you. It didn't really snow at your house, you have some one come up and paint the trees and ground white didn't you.lol. We got some snow fl that about it from that system. Didn't expect nothing anyway down here. I hope this system you are talking about gives us a good snow. Looks good for west and maybe middle tenn right now. thanks.

Yeah! Windstorm, I got all that snow from about 4 meso bands. The radar looked good but there were a lot of breaks in the banding... One band had some gusty winds and snowed really hard the flakes were the size of half dollars...... I posted that pic for fun, but it has merit the gem and gfs are showing that storm, but the euro says forget it... Will be fun too watch though! Have a great day man!