Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

I know this little system coming in sun-mon looks more and more interesting too me, it continues to bring it further s and w and closing the low off... Another light snow event? We Will see if the trend continues...

Man what I would give to be in New York mon-tue for that blizzard! Up 30inches of snow.... 30 to 50mph winds wow!!! Anyways maybe before our season is over we can get a decent storm here...

Any chance of snow tonight? When do you guys think the next good chance will be?

The 18z NAM forecast soundings along the mountains of East Tennessee are pretty impressive for tomorrow. West to northwest flow intersecting the mountains, steep lapse rates in the low levels (extending from the surface to near mountain top level), and saturation up to about 700mb are all favorable for a good round of snow in those areas.

Yeah I expect some heavy upslope snow tonight with that 500mb speed/vort max barreling that its way southeastward. Nice accumulations in the highest elevations and even an inch or two in the foothills

Guys, the models this year are trash... Not talking about what may happen this weekend, I'm talking about right now! with the storm up in the ne. the storm active approaching and the GFS says they don't get 2-3 feet of snow... I'm Interested which one hits if it is the gfs wow!!!! If not they need to come out with something different.. What do you guys think the problem is?

Will be interesting to see. By the way we have light snow falling with a temp of 36 right now. Won't last long.

Am still waiting on all that cold weather. Wonder when we will get it. It was kind of cold today but not what am wanting. Of course the weather don't do what I want.

Snow from last night...



0.05" of melted snow = about 1.00" of snow. At the time of the pic, there was about 0.5" down.

So when is our next decent snow or arctic blast fellas?

Winter storm Juno!!!!! How about this...... Juno newyork city didn't get 20 - 25inches of snow. Lol..... What a bust with a couple of models with a strom that close. Anyways still looking at the late weekend time frame. Who knows, the way winter has went so far with the storms that show over a week out then disappear to come back again, we may be in great shape with this one state wide. They were showing way south, went way north and too warm, now coming back south and colder..... Very interesting too see! But Im not going to say one way or the other, until snow is falling...

Here is the current gfs for late weekend.... That low needs to come further south for us to get a decent chance at anything good... As of now it is just the tailend that ends as snow....

This is how close it is now to what it was showing just 3 days ago... This run is from this past sun.

IMO I think all we will get from is a cold rain, maybe a spare snow shower on the back end

With what I looked at and am seeing the euro essembles match up well with that gfs run.... Normally when you start seeing things matching up its a good bet, but we all know what has happened.. I think the models will continue to correct, the wave is going to be flat I don't see it cutting to the lakes... My gut is saying i40 north snowstorm with this one.... Omo!

Here are the two that I'm talking about 18z gfs total snowfall and the 12z euro control run, pretty close, but I can see the trend still further south... We will see:D

One more thing then I'll stop, just to my point, here is the 12z gem.....

Hummm. I know the system has been zeroed by the models but it looks like east tenn would do better than what your map is showing. They only reason I say that is because it's been cold here the last 3-4 days. The nighttime temperture will be below freezing everynight till Sunday. However, I wouldnt want to go against the models. So maybe the system after it will deliver the goods.

Plus it's very consistent with what the foothills have received so far.

Y'all would have a better chance than me. System this weekend for me would only mean maybe some wrap around for me if there is anything left.

You can't go by just any one model run..... I'm sticking with what I said in a earlier post... I40 north looks to have the best shot at anything statewide.... The runs from yesterday that I posted have shifted south as I thought... I'll try to post some imgs later if I have time... The gem is the only one still trying to blow this thing up which would mean warmer and rain ending as some snow at the end!!! We will know by thur night fri for sure.. I see it as a weaker storm, therfore staying colder and further south.. Which means not as much precip..... Fun to watch!!

Here is the total snowfall from the 18z gfs....

Latest euro for this weekend system...lol bring it baby!!

Jscentraltn wrote:You can't go by just any one model run..... I'm sticking with what I said in a earlier post... I40 north looks to have the best shot at anything statewide.... The runs from yesterday that I posted have shifted south as I thought... I'll try to post some imgs later if I have time... The gem is the only one still trying to blow this thing up which would mean warmer and rain ending as some snow at the end!!! We will know by thur night fri for sure.. I see it as a weaker storm, therfore staying colder and further south.. Which means not as much precip..... Fun to watch!!

The NAVGEM has a statwide snow storm..lol

Canadian comes in very similar to last nights euro

I'd glady take my 1-2 inches here and cash out. I hope we just see snow out of it no matter how much. Just can't be greedy in this winter. Or any other for that matter. After all, this is still the south.