Winter 2011/2012 Pattern Discussion

Just for lols, here is accumulated snowfall from Accuweather's internal model for Dec 22:



JMA on the 18th:

Stovepipe wrote:Just for lols, here is accumulated snowfall from Accuweather's internal model for Dec 22:



JMA on the 18th:

I'll take what the JMA is having for breakfast this morning

The GFS is now forming a second wave of low pressure along the lakes cutter frontal boundary. Probably nothing significant but I think it will trend colder and a little stronger just like the last non event. The nogaps is much colder with possible snow and I think it has the right idea...suprisingly the nogaps has been pretty darn good at sniffing the right solution out before the gfs and euro can. Thats not to say it wont start acting like the nogaps again... but if you remember it had the big cutoff ULL that gave west TN their snow way before the other models did it also sniffed the last little snow tease out while the gfs and euro showed rain and no snow.

The 12z GFS is churning out cold and snow showery weather from Christmas Eve through New Years now. I really hope it's on to something.

John1122 wrote:The 12z GFS is churning out cold and snow showery weather from Christmas Eve through New Years now. I really hope it's on to something.

12z euro also looking pretty interesting around Christmas

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

John1122 wrote:The 12z GFS is churning out cold and snow showery weather from Christmas Eve through New Years now. I really hope it's on to something.

12z euro also looking pretty interesting around Christmas

Let it be lol

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:

John1122 wrote:The 12z GFS is churning out cold and snow showery weather from Christmas Eve through New Years now. I really hope it's on to something.

12z euro also looking pretty interesting around Christmas

I'm busting Jerry, I'm busting!

So this is where all the fun is at. Sweet board Toot.

snowdog wrote:So this is where all the fun is at. Sweet board Toot.

lol...whats up snowdog... glad you made it over...looking forward to your winter wx intel

Yeah I'm looking forward to a rockin' January. Should be a few events to track. Lord knows we have waited long enough in this current pattern.

Sure have...hopefully things are fixing to change up

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Sure have...hopefully things are fixing to change up

I think/hope/pray this current +AO regime has about run its course. Should start waning and be on the way out by the end of the year. The SSW event should help get that process kick started as well. Probably will have a better clue on the SSW strenght in a few days. At any rate, early January is a great time to start a -AO/-NAO regime. Sometimes those +AO regimes like to come back quickly after regrouping. Hoping the SSW event can keep that from happening and we can lock in a blocking pattern for a few weeks.

snowdog wrote:

I think/hope/pray this current +AO regime has about run its course. Should start waning and be on the way out by the end of the year. The SSW event should help get that process kick started as well. Probably will have a better clue on the SSW strenght in a few days. At any rate, early January is a great time to start a -AO/-NAO regime. Sometimes those +AO regimes like to come back quickly after regrouping. Hoping the SSW event can keep that from happening and we can lock in a blocking pattern for a few weeks.

Im starting to think there might be an oppurtunity for some fun around Christmas...I think a STRONG lakes cutter pushes a nice cold front into the gulf of mexico around the 20th where another low pressure system MAY form along that boundary and ride up it in a path similar to a Miller A...of course this will need good timing and all but the possibility seems to be there. These two systems may be enough to dislodge the PV feature from eastern Canada and Greenalnd long enough where higher heights would then be able to form and in theory high lattitude blocking could then initiate in the NAO region near the new year. At least thats my take on the long range ensembles and teleconnections and any help from the PNA might speed this process up.

The 12z GFS is really close to giving us a Christmas Eve bombshell instead of Christmas Eve flurries.

I just hope it stays on the field and doesn't become a Christmas Eve GLC or a Christmas Eve fish feeder.

http://stormtrack9.freedomblogging.com/2011/12/13/longer-range-outlook-toward-christmas-day/15015/

Good read from David Glenn in Chattanooga. He references Bastardi and how stratospheric warming can be a good sign of things to come. He seems to be foreshadowing an interesting forecast in the upcoming few days.

I posted this on a couple other sites. If you have seen it... sorry!!

lol @ the smiley...welcome southeastbutter

To me it looks like things are starting to get a little more busy to come

Well...I was looking forward to seeing the individual 18z ensemble members but that run messed up for some reason at ewall and huffmans..oh well on to the 0z models

Welcome Snowdog and Butter! Glad to have you here!

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Well...I was looking forward to seeing the individual 18z ensemble members but that run messed up for some reason at ewall and huffmans..oh well on to the 0z models

i looked at the 18zgfs operational... it wasnt quite good as the 12z... but hey its the 18z. it is most of the time a sucky run anyways... bring on the 0z

Im still learning. Are the numbers such as 18z and 12z the hours of the day they are ran? Why is the 18z the worst run generally? Last thing.. Where is the best place to go and look at these runs? I've been on twisterdata.com, but I don't seem to see what everyone else talks about. Thanks!!

Southeastbutter wrote:Im still learning. Are the numbers such as 18z and 12z the hours of the day they are ran? Why is the 18z the worst run generally? Last thing.. Where is the best place to go and look at these runs? I've been on twisterdata.com, but I don't seem to see what everyone else talks about. Thanks!!

Yes the numbers are the time of day they're ran...the z stands for zulu time which is the same as UTC or GMT Greenwich mean time...just google any of those for a tutorial. Probably the most helpful model site is http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html and here is a good writeup on how to read those models http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/01/weather-101-how-to-read-computer-model.html

If you have any further questions feel free to ask them here https://tootsweatherspot.forumotion.com/t31-weather-questions

Southeastbutter wrote:Im still learning. Are the numbers such as 18z and 12z the hours of the day they are ran? Why is the 18z the worst run generally? Last thing.. Where is the best place to go and look at these runs? I've been on twisterdata.com, but I don't seem to see what everyone else talks about. Thanks!!

Looks like Toot already has you covered. I'd like to add that this site: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ is an incredibly good place to learn about models and weather forecasting in general. Also, mosey on over to our Weather Resources forum and check out This Thread when you have some spare time. Lots of good info there.

The cold was still there on 18z and so was a big storm coming from the Eastern Gulf and up the Eastern Seaboard.

Any kind of details beyond that will need to be watched for another week at least to have even a general idea about things.

John1122 wrote:The cold was still there on 18z and so was a big storm coming from the Eastern Gulf and up the Eastern Seaboard.

Any kind of details beyond that will need to be watched for another week at least to have even a general idea about things.

Yes sir...kind of odd for it to catch onto something so far out but I cant wait until it gets into the better resolution hrs