weak el nino next winter

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-01-26, 7:12 pm

everyone is so upset about this winter, i cant blame them... hell it sux balls... but i got good news... we just will have to sacrafise this winter for a what is potentially setting up for a block buster winter in 2012-2013... this pattern we are in isnt going any where any time soon... matter of fact i dont look for it to break down completely untill late may... thats when the nao goes negative as we head into early summer... by late june the pacific water temps slowly start to rise, by then we are setting at a neutral enso stage... as summer rolls on, temps keep on warming slowly... that sets the stage for a weak el nino... as blocking starts to lock in, we should get the pna to go positive also... so this summer will not be a scorcher you can book it... and matter of fact it shoud be a wetter than usual summer also... i really think folks in the east tn area, particular the upper higher elevations will start to cash in on winter events in the late fall... i know there is some talk of a pattern change in next month, it may go neg nao for about a week window, but there isnt going to be any blocking what so ever...so it wont last long... and going into this spring, severe is going to rock... i have done explain the factors many times for that reasoning. march into april will be viloent... its going to be the clash of the seasons air masses... cause there will be shots of artic air tring to come down, that will only throw in more instability as its slams into the warm gulf air mass... interesting times lay ahead, just be patient my friends.

by **Toot** 2012-01-26, 7:17 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:everyone is so upset about this winter, i cant blame them... hell it sux balls... but i got good news... we just will have to sacrafise this winter for a what is potentially setting up for a block buster winter in 2012-2013... this pattern we are in isnt going any where any time soon... matter of fact i dont look for it to break down completely untill late may... thats when the nao goes negative as we head into early summer... by late june the pacific water temps slowly start to rise, by then we are setting at a neutral enso stage... as summer rolls on, temps keep on warming slowly... that sets the stage for a weak el nino... as blocking starts to lock in, we should get the pna to go positive also... so this summer will not be a scorcher you can book it... and matter of fact it shoud be a wetter than usual summer also... i really think folks in the east tn area, particular the upper higher elevations will start to cash in on winter events in the late fall... i know there is some talk of a pattern change in next month, it may go neg nao for about a week window, but there isnt going to be any blocking what so ever...so it wont last long... and going into this spring, severe is going to rock... i have done explain the factors many times for that reasoning. march into april will be viloent... its going to be the clash of the seasons air masses... cause there will be shots of artic air tring to come down, that will only throw in more instability as its slams into the warm gulf air mass... interesting times lay ahead, just be patient my friends.

How dare you start a thread with those words Bruce Laughing

JK buddy...and thanks for giving us your thoughts.

by **Stovepipe** 2012-01-27, 11:50 am

I've heard other people mention that in theory a weak el nino is about the best setup we could hope for here in the south. Hope it plays out. Thanks for sharing your thoughts Bruce.

by **jmundie** 2012-01-27, 3:15 pm

Yeah - weak el nino with a -pdo and some blocking would be absolutely epic for us. That is, assuming el ninos are still wetter than average in these parts (since la ninas are apparently wet for the se as a whole now)

If we get a weak el nino, all signs would point to a winter to remember

by **Toot** 2012-01-27, 3:42 pm

I agree...a weak el nino is likely statistic wise

by **Toot** 2012-02-26, 5:21 am

Already near neutral Enso status rock on

weak el nino next winter Elninometer-current

by **Mrgolf** 2012-03-09, 11:04 pm

Toot,gotta question. Do me a favor and look up sum analogs for this upcoming winter and find me the closest fit to if we indeed see at least a weak to mod elnino,maybe stronger, for this winter. I mean if the pdo is indeed negative coupled with the elnino. My friend told me today that he couldnt remember the last time,and he has been forecasting wx for over 38yrs. Can elninos happen with a -pdo? Thanks kevin

by **Toot** 2012-03-09, 11:59 pm

The last time the PDO was in a true negative phase would be in the 60-70's and there were several Ninos then...thats probably why he dont remember it..The PDO is a very long cyclical process and I think we have only documented three different phases since records began. I may look at some -PDO/+ENSO analogs later on but right now im just wayyyy too busy

by **John1122** 2012-03-10, 12:14 am

It seems like sunspot activity has a big tie in to winter patterns. I'll have to study up even more on that this summer. During the solar lows the NAO/AO was generally favorable for 2 straight years. Sunspot activity ramped up again this winter and they were as unfavorable as I can remember for a long long time. Sadly 2012-2013 will likely feature a solar maximum.

by **Mrgolf** 2012-03-10, 9:42 pm

John1122, i know a little bit bout wxpatterns. Normally, if there is a low sunspot activity, we want to see a -qbo. When u have higher sunspot activity, a +qbo is preferred. I agree,sunspots are important. wow

by **Toot** 2012-04-25, 3:24 pm

La Niña fading, likely gone by end of April

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/la-nina-fading-likely-gone-by-end-of-april

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-25, 6:09 pm

I'm just glad to say good-bye to LaNina. After two plus years, she wore out her welcome. mad

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-01, 3:19 pm

So, do we still think that summer is not going to be a bath in blazin' hot sauce burn

? Or has that opinion changed somewhat since we are pushing 90F this week already?? torch

Just wondering what the general consensus is. Holding out hope that this pattern will change at some point.

by **Toot** 2012-05-01, 5:53 pm

Im not sure what the general consensus is... but im still thinking there will be a rather major longwave pattern change before summer. What we have going on now is just the same old variable ridge pattern that has been in place since winter...but with the jetstream a little further north.

Warm winter..Warm spring....I'll take my chances with a cool summer. Im hoping this pattern change takes place around the May5th-10th timeframe as there is alot of support for such a change around then.

by **WxFreak** 2012-05-01, 7:38 pm

Well, when I say "what's the general consensus," I mean "what do ya'll think?" I mean--who else's opinion matter? popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-05-04, 8:55 am

La Niña dissipated during April 2012, as below-average SSTs weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs persisted in the east (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were warmer than -0.5oC throughout the month, and the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also became positive in April (Fig. 3), as below-average sub-surface temperatures largely disappeared and above-average sub-surface temperatures expanded in both the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with the demise of La Niña, enhanced trade winds and reduced convection over the central equatorial Pacific were much weakened during April, and the area of enhanced convection that had previously dominated the western Pacific and Indonesia became disorganized (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.

The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that La Niña is unlikely to re-develop later this year. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to continue from April-June (AMJ) through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). However, at least half of the dynamical models predict development of El Niño conditions by JJA. Still, from JJA onward there is considerable forecast uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions will prevail, due largely to the inability to predict whether the warmer SST will result in the ocean-atmosphere coupling required for a sustained El Niño event. The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 June 2012. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.