May Severe Weather

Stovepipe wrote:Where can you find these long range JMA forecasts?

This is the only free graphics that I know of

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.html

i know i am not a mod. anymore... but arent we getting away from severe weather talk just a little? lol

Yes we are but there are no huge events going on so it is okay lol!

Adam2014 wrote:Yes we are but there are no huge events going on so it is okay lol!

i agree adam...

I'll tell you guys this right now, the way the GFS is currently synoptically resolving the second system in this sequence after this upcoming pattern change is quite reminiscent of several significant Ozark/Mid South tornado events...one of the more similar ones would be March 1st, 1997 where several intense tornadoes targeted the Little Rock area.

Euro looks to target the Eastern Plains more, although the threat would probably spread into the Ozarks as well.

andyhb wrote:I'll tell you guys this right now, the way the GFS is currently synoptically resolving the second system in this sequence after this upcoming pattern change is quite reminiscent of several significant Ozark/Mid South tornado events...one of the more similar ones would be March 1st, 1997 where several intense tornadoes targeted the Little Rock area.

Euro looks to target the Eastern Plains more, although the threat would probably spread into the Ozarks as well.

yeah i remember that event really well... think over 25 people were killed in arkansas alone... also there was a f4 in dyer county tennessee which is about 50 miles to my nw. thats the home town of dyersburg weather... seems like 40 tornado reports in arkansas correct me if im wrong andy...

There were at least 16 confirmed tornadoes in AR, the worst of them were the two F4s, one which decimated the Arkadelphia area in Clark County and the other in Sardis/Shannon Hills in Saline County and the College Station area in Pulaski County south of Little Rock. A tornado also hit Marmaduke in the NE AR, which was also severely damaged on 4/2/06.

tennessee storm09 wrote:

andyhb wrote:I'll tell you guys this right now, the way the GFS is currently synoptically resolving the second system in this sequence after this upcoming pattern change is quite reminiscent of several significant Ozark/Mid South tornado events...one of the more similar ones would be March 1st, 1997 where several intense tornadoes targeted the Little Rock area.

Euro looks to target the Eastern Plains more, although the threat would probably spread into the Ozarks as well.

yeah i remember that event really well... think over 25 people were killed in arkansas alone... also there was a f4 in dyer county tennessee which is about 50 miles to my nw. thats the home town of dyersburg weather... seems like 40 tornado reports in arkansas correct me if im wrong andy...

I remember that night very well. We had a monster come through here. Very lucky we only had one fatality. We also got 9 inches of rain that night.

1st storm doesn't look like a slouch either, particularly on the Euro.

andyhb wrote:1st storm doesn't look like a slouch either, particularly on the Euro.

spc has out a risk area shadded out for that system on day 6, right smack down the middle of the country..

On the latest GFS, all the storms just stay in the plains. It is like the storm system can't make it east... Dang!

Euro looks very severe with the storm to our west around 160-170.

Adam2014 wrote:On the latest GFS, all the storms just stay in the plains. It is like the storm system can't make it east... Dang!

yeah, latest gfs is trying to redevelop that damn ridge of high pressure off the se coast... there lies your problem... gfs in lal la land , look interesting with a major trough look developing a strong lp over central missouri and it ejects energy whichwould lead to a severe event for us in the midsouth... but i have seen that look before then when time gets closer it goes pooof.

This is rediculous I want the ridge to go away!

tennessee storm09 wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:On the latest GFS, all the storms just stay in the plains. It is like the storm system can't make it east... Dang!

yeah, latest gfs is trying to redevelop that damn ridge of high pressure off the se coast... there lies your problem... gfs in lal la land , look interesting with a major trough look developing a strong lp over central missouri and it ejects energy whichwould lead to a severe event for us in the midsouth... but i have seen that look before then when time gets closer it goes pooof.

Two things:

I) Relax, this is a 7 days+ away.

II) I'm looking for interesting weather of any kind, no matter where it is lol. I'd rather have it somewhere rather than no where. The GFS is not in la la land, it has been showing this type of system for several runs now. This system may end up smashing the ridge further so that the ones after it have a better chance of advancing further eastward, should it not do so itself.

Yeah this is 192 hrs out, but look at this hodo around Little Rock next Sunday from the 00z GFS, playing with these kind of wind fields with plentiful moisture in place usually turns out problematic.

andyhb wrote:Yeah this is 192 hrs out, but look at this hodo around Little Rock next Sunday from the 00z GFS, playing with these kind of wind fields with plentiful moisture in place usually turns out problematic.

yep, thats a nice classic looking hodo there andy... the ole fish hook.

wow, after looking at this mornings 6zgfs... thats about as a potent tornado threaat you will see in the plains and just north of the red river valley... be iinteresting to see if west tennessee can get into some action late next weekend... like andy said, little rock needs to pay close attention for sure

The plains look to get it that's for sure. At least there will be something to track!

Day 7 is outlined with a threat...lolwut

18zgfs shows a prolong severe threat late this weekend, espccially sunday into mid week of next... plains ozarks into the western portions of the midsouth, including western tn looks to get included by monday night in to tuesday week...profiles still showing directonal shear... going to be interesting to see how the models play out as we get closer.

will any of this get into middle TN?? Don't much care for this boring weather.

Not likely Vann...Ridge is too amplified for anything this way. Hopefully this changes in about a week

That sure sucks, but hey, Thanks for the info Toot!

Wow! Severe weather seems to be the happening thing for the next 6 days or so in the South West/Plains areas. Even a Moderate risk for today.