Re: May Severe Weather

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-09, 7:29 am

High pressure looks to just hold all the storms off, it looks like a high pressure develops to our east and it forces the storm to stay west for a while...

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-09, 7:34 am

Vanster67 wrote:Wow! Severe weather seems to be the happening thing for the next 6 days or so in the South West/Plains areas. Even a Moderate risk for today.

great point van... the ridge nudges just enough to allow the midsouth to get in to the action... could be a fairly prolong threat at that.. looks like west tn could be effected with severe from monday all the way to tuesday night... and it slowly spreads east from there... thing that has my concen is, the trough is a fairly deep and most important its broad... in most cases the broader the trough is, more lkely tornado threat will increase...i have always paid atention to that...none the less, next week,looks quite active... starting from the plains, perhaps all the way to the east coast... sure the tornado threat will be greater further west you are... non the less, this will be interesting to watch play out. yikes

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-09, 8:06 am

I just want some severe storms to get rid of this boring weather. If we can break this ridge down then we could see more storms systems roll through. Right now we don't even have a ridge, it is just a trough that won't allow the storm system to proceed east.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-09, 8:12 am

Adam2014 wrote:I just want some severe storms to get rid of this boring weather. If we can break this ridge down then we could see more storms systems roll through. Right now we don't even have a ridge, it is just a trough that won't allow the storm system to proceed east.

you get some storms adam, hang in there, go through the gfs closely... the latest run that is... lets see what the 12z suites say.

by **andyhb** 2012-04-09, 1:12 pm

Mid South folks take a look at the 12z GFS, holy moly...

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-09, 1:31 pm

andyhb wrote:Mid South folks take a look at the 12z GFS, holy moly...

by **Toot** 2012-04-09, 5:44 pm

*ALERT* *ALERT*.....ATTENTION

LMAO!! Laughing

by **Stovepipe** 2012-04-09, 5:54 pm

Oh hell fire that's more like it! Franky brought the enthusiasm with that one. His previous update was lackluster. This one was money!

lmao

by **Toot** 2012-04-09, 6:26 pm

Seriously tho...Locally speaking...there is a strong signal for a well developed low pressure system near the middle of the month. This system looks to take a very favorable path for organized and widespread SVR across the southeastern states into the OH valley. I have been watching this one for a couple of days now on all models. This is about a week out

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-09, 8:41 pm

Toot wrote:*ALERT* *ALERT*.....ATTENTION

lmfao, got to love frankies enthusiasim.. he really gets into it man rock on

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-09, 9:05 pm

Bring the storms, that storm system looks awesome!

by **Toot** 2012-04-09, 11:14 pm

Here is the system I am talking about from the 18zgfs

May Severe Weather - Page 9 2012040918_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_162

May Severe Weather - Page 9 2012040918_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192

by **Stovepipe** 2012-04-09, 11:19 pm

Toot wrote:Here is the system I am talking about from the 18zgfs

by Vanster67 2012-04-10, 7:12 am

Toot wrote:*ALERT* *ALERT*.....ATTENTION

LMAO!!

Yes. Welcome back Frankie, much much better than your last. rock on

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-10, 8:10 am

The storm that is being modeled about 150 hours out, which is the one you all are talking about, is going to be very nasty if it plays out. We could have widespread severe weather from Okalahoma/Texas to the Carolinas with that storm.

by **Homemommy** 2012-04-13, 3:26 pm

I'm driving to Louisville, KY tomorrow. Ain't never drove outside of Knoxville by myself before. Would any of you be so kind as to look and see if the weather is going to be good up there tomorrow?

by **Toot** 2012-04-13, 5:10 pm

Slight chance of a late thunderstorm tomorrow up that way Carrie

by **Homemommy** 2012-04-13, 5:33 pm

Toot wrote:Slight chance of a late thunderstorm tomorrow up that way Carrie

Thanks. That's what the weather channel said too, (but you never know about them) I just wanted to double check.

by **Toot** 2012-04-14, 9:51 am

Another system is being modeled after the current one...its pretty sexy

May Severe Weather - Page 9 2012041406_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_168

by **BethD** 2012-04-14, 11:04 am

My Stepdaughter moved to Nebraska this past summer. She has lived in Idaho all of her life except a few times when she lived with us. She has been texting me all morning and is really freaked out about their high chances of Tornadoes this afternoon. Luckily they have a basement. The are about a hour west of Omaha. I am keeping my fingers crossed and praying that the town of Fremont doesn't get hit hard.

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-14, 11:34 am

Toot wrote:Another system is being modeled after the current one...its pretty sexy

yeh, i have had my eye on that one last couple days... that looks to be more of a favorable threat much further east for our are... after we get this monster out of the way the next couple days. i start to home in on it and break it down,if its still looks like a threat for us. popcorn

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-14, 3:21 pm

I've noticed on the Drought Monitor that parts of mid/west TN are now "abnormally dry." Guess the warm/dry weather of March took its toll on soil moisture. Hopefully, the pattern will become more active before the summer subtropical HIGH sets up, rain becomes more scarce, and the dryness spreads.

by **Toot** 2012-04-15, 8:33 am

The system around the 20th of the month still looks to hold alot of severe potential. This will be according to the placement of storm track. It only needs to be just a hair further north for a substancial threat

May Severe Weather - Page 9 F150

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-15, 8:42 am

Northwest trend just a little and Tennessee is under the gun.

by **Toot** 2012-04-15, 8:46 am

Adam2014 wrote:Northwest trend just a little and Tennessee is under the gun.

NWS out of New Orleans

THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY...AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THECENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVESINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND HIGHER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILLOCCUR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AVERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPIVALLEY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS. THERE COULD BE A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAYNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREAWILL INTENSIFY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAYNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MOVE INTOTHE AREA TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS COLDERAIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWINGFOR INCREASED INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPEVALUES COULD EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND SOME INCREASED SHEAR WILL ALSODEVELOP LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THESEINGREDIENTS SHOULD WORK TOGETHER TO ALLOW A LINE OF STRONG TOPOSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THECOLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS RISK.

by Sponsored content