Re: May Severe Weather

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-15, 9:15 am

April is the month of extremes, that's for sure. I've always considered it the month of "duck and cover." You can go from 80's, to tornadic storms, to frost, and even snow early in the month. I just don't want a repeat of 4/27 anytime soon--(or in my lifetime). affraid

by Vanster67 2012-04-17, 6:16 am

anything looking severe for this weekend? Here's hoping hurry

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-17, 6:38 am

No severe next couple of days, but looks like a needed soaking rain tonight/tomorrow morning. Maybe it will help with that mulch fire Knoxville has been dealing with. BTW, Stove, where were YOU when that started?? If memory serves, you have been known to build HUGE bonfires to taunt the rain. HMMMMM..

Stovepipe wrote:The Knox County force field has held up so far, I'm now going to taunt the rain by building a huge bonfire in my back yard. True Story!

(I need to get rid of some biomass)

by **Stovepipe** 2012-04-17, 10:22 am

WxFreak wrote:No severe next couple of days, but looks like a needed soaking rain tonight/tomorrow morning. Maybe it will help with that mulch fire Knoxville has been dealing with. BTW, Stove, where were YOU when that started?? If memory serves, you have been known to build HUGE bonfires to taunt the rain. HMMMMM..

Stovepipe wrote:The Knox County force field has held up so far, I'm now going to taunt the rain by building a huge bonfire in my back yard. True Story!

(I need to get rid of some biomass)

Haha! Can't blame me for this one. Smile

The taunting will resume this Friday evenin though.

rock on

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-17, 11:49 am

Ahhh...lookin forward to a rainy night. Leavin the windows open, and listenin to the showers wash the pollen out of the air, while the bull frogs sing down at the ole' pond. If we could only have a few thunder boomers with it, it would be perfect. Looks a little too stable for that, however.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-17, 3:44 pm

Looks like we may hear some rumbles overnight after all:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A 115 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LIFT IS ALREADY PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

THIS LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS. IN THE SHORT-TERM DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE THUNDER AS WELL.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-17, 6:55 pm

A good area of rain just about to spill over the Smokies and move into Blount, Sevier, and Cocke counties. My sinuses already feel better. rock on

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-17, 7:17 pm

Vanster67 wrote:anything looking severe for this weekend? Here's hoping

doesnt look like it van, unfortunetly

by **Toot** 2012-04-17, 7:19 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:doesnt look like it van, unfortunetly

.....lol

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-04-17, 8:40 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Vanster67 wrote:anything looking severe for this weekend? Here's hoping
doesnt look like it van, unfortunetly

Yea. I give up.

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-17, 10:23 pm

This spring is just terrible...

by **Adam2014** 2012-04-17, 10:43 pm

We need a high amplitude pattern...

by **Stovepipe** 2012-04-17, 11:05 pm

Adam2014 wrote:We need a high amplitude pattern...

May Severe Weather - Page 10 Bears_repeating

by **Toot** 2012-04-18, 1:26 am

The pattern has been pretty high amplitude...but that high amplitude has been hurting us in terms of severe weather. Positively amplified over much of the central and eastern united states since winter. The ridge got too amplified and that makes the storms cutt WAY north... taking all the dynamics with them.

gaah

Well.. that looks to change to a highly amplified troff over the eastern US which will also hurt severe weather chances around this neck of the woods...lol.. We need slight shifts in a zonal pattern to create organized svr.. not these drastic ones.

Just my two cents silent

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-18, 7:06 am

Got a decent rain overnight--nearly a half inch, and still raining this morning. A needed pollen wash, and moisture recharge.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-18, 5:28 pm

WxFreak wrote:Got a decent rain overnight--nearly a half inch, and still raining this morning. A needed pollen wash, and moisture recharge.

Got another quarter inch during the day today, so a good soaking for the lawn. Now if I can just avoid another frickin' freeze. facepalm

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-18, 6:10 pm

Toot wrote:The pattern has been pretty high amplitude...but that high amplitude has been hurting us in terms of severe weather. Positively amplified over much of the central and eastern united states since winter. The ridge got too amplified and that makes the storms cutt WAY north... taking all the dynamics with them.

Well.. that looks to change to a highly amplified troff over the eastern US which will also hurt severe weather chances around this neck of the woods...lol.. We need slight shifts in a zonal pattern to create organized svr.. not these drastic ones.

Just my two cents

i agree with you 100 percent toot,that pretty much sums it up buddy.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-20, 5:30 pm

(I moved this post to the more appropriate thread whistle

)

This current system starting to look like a dud as far as precip amounts go.

After this huge trough departs, a warm front will be begin to push toward our area late next week, with disturbances moving southeast along it. Possibility is there for an MCS to travel southeast over the area, or for some strong storms at least--as the warm, moist air pushes out the cool air left behind by this low pressure. Hopefully, we'll see some action as "northwest flow" storms that drop southeast in the spring/summer can really pack a wallop if the ingredients are there.

by **Toot** 2012-04-21, 7:07 am

I really dont see any threat of an MCS in the near future at least not in TN,,,I seen the models portray this but it looks like the subtropical HPS will prevent it from happening

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-21, 7:36 am

You can see the energy doing the splits this morning. Some taking the high road up into the Ohio Valley, and the rest taking the low road with the developing low pressure in the Gulf, leaving the southeast high and dry for the moment. It's a shame the drought areas of Georgia couldn't benefit from this system, as they need the rain.
Hopefully, we'll get some rain at some point, but radar trends seem to have the majority of the moisture heading up into KY.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-21, 8:08 am

Parts of East TN are also on the dry side now. I've not had 2 inches of rain this month (1.77"), and not much time left to make up the deficit. Other areas have had more, as rain amounts were highly variable with the last few systems, and Stove's taunting fire seemed to focus quite a bit in his area pffft

. But overall, the area does need a good soaking rain. worry

by **tennessee storm09** 2012-04-21, 8:30 am

i am starting to fear a serious drought will set up going into summer for us.. i have never seen a spring this dry, things dont change we are heading into a serious situation i am affraid.

by **Toot** 2012-04-21, 8:54 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am starting to fear a serious drought will set up going into summer for us.. i have never seen a spring this dry, things dont change we are heading into a serious situation i am affraid.

Here in east TN we are still above avg on precip

Here is an animated gif showing drought progression
May Severe Weather - Page 10 12_week

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-21, 9:07 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am starting to fear a serious drought will set up going into summer for us.. i have never seen a spring this dry, things dont change we are heading into a serious situation i am affraid.

2007 was a very dry winter/spring followed by a very hot, dry summer.

I've seen dry springs become wet summers, however. It all depends on where the subtropical high parks itself for the summer. Last year, it was over Texas and the southern Plains. That left us in a decent position on the east side of the "ring of fire." Fronts, and the occasional MCS, moved southeast over the Ohio and East TN Valley, and kept the severe drought in the Plains from spreading east. Only time will tell where the mountain of high pressure will park itself this year.

In 2009 I had a pretty dry April here, but that all changed in May, June and July. That was a very wet, cool summer. We can only hope this year heads more toward an '09 pattern, and not an '07.

by **WxFreak** 2012-04-21, 9:17 am

The thing that worries me about that GIF is we are now surrounded on both sides by dry and/or drought conditions. We you become surrounded by dry, it's harder for systems to produce needed rain, as there is less moisture to pull from the ground and vegetation for rainfall. But, again, the situation can change rapidly this time of year--for good or bad. A large complex of T-storms, or an MCS rolling though can dump huge amounts of rain as the Gulf opens up. Likewise, a few weeks of 80's with little rain, can dry out the ground very quickly. We'll soon see which direction we're headin' in.
At least parts of NC got a good soaking with the last system. That will improve their drought rating in the next week, I'm sure. And this next system gives them another round of rain, which will only help their status. Gotta eat away at that D rating while we can. popcorn

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