May Severe Weather

I now have a 90% chance of showers today. Looking at the radar, I see about 20% coverage. Guess the powers that be see something I don't. Here's hoping they are correct.

WxFreak wrote:I now have a 90% chance of showers today. Looking at the radar, I see about 20% coverage. Guess the powers that be see something I don't. Here's hoping they are correct.

I dont see it happening...HP is already starting dominate the region

I resumed the taunting last night. The wind was still kickin up flames at 10am this morning.



Your move Mother Nature.

Toot wrote:

WxFreak wrote:I now have a 90% chance of showers today. Looking at the radar, I see about 20% coverage. Guess the powers that be see something I don't. Here's hoping they are correct.

I dont see it happening...HP is already starting dominate the region

No, I don't either. I've already thrown the forecast out the window, and doing some yard work. The sun has been breaking out here from time to time, and it looks like the LP in the gulf is hogging up all the moisture, and there is little left for the front to lift for rain. Oh well. Maybe later in the week we'll have something come down the pipe line. Enjoy the day everyone. It's actually perfect for working outside. Very cool and pleasant.

Stovepipe wrote:I resumed the taunting last night. The wind was still kickin up flames at 10am this morning.



Your move Mother Nature.

Sorry, Stove. Don't think it's gonna help us this go around. But, if it actually rains THIS time, I will send you my lawn debris to burn every weekend.

Wxfreak you are now our third admin!!

Again, thanks for the confidence. I'll try not to blow anything up. At least nothing important.

On a wx note...not a friggin drop of rain today. Stove's tauntin fire must've petered out.

Just got back in from a little outing. Left in partial sunshine, and temps in the 70's. Came outside from eating at a local restaurant, and found the sky covered in a lead gray stratus deck, the wind was blowing, and temps were in the upper 50's. CAA giving our early spring a pounding...

Looks like a round or two of storms is becoming more likely later in the week as the warm vs cold battle begins, and a warm front sets up somewhere nearby. Depending on where it does, will determine who gets to see some action.

WxFreak wrote:Looks like a round or two of storms is becoming more likely later in the week as the warm vs cold battle begins, and a warm front sets up somewhere nearby. Depending on where it does, will determine who gets to see some action.

looking like a frontal boundary passage with a cold front at first with iso severe chance... front stalls then comes back as warm front friday another chance of some storms... not looking like a wide spread event at all, lack of return low level moisture and no shear at all... but we can use the rain.

tennessee storm09 wrote:

WxFreak wrote:Looks like a round or two of storms is becoming more likely later in the week as the warm vs cold battle begins, and a warm front sets up somewhere nearby. Depending on where it does, will determine who gets to see some action.

looking like a frontal boundary passage with a cold front at first with iso severe chance... front stalls then comes back as warm front friday another chance of some storms... not looking like a wide spread event at all, lack of return low level moisture and no shear at all... but we can use the rain.

Yes, nothing severe, except isolated. But at this point, in a spring like we're having, a run-of-the mill, garden type thunderstorm sounds exciting.

I could use a good frog strangler.

Actually just had to water some plants.

I'm actually up to a whopping, mind numbing, .10" from 12 hours of drizzle.

At this time I will take any rain gladly. Way to dry for this time of year already. Amazing seems colder now than was all winter. This weather flat out stinks! No severe wx or even just some good thunder boomers at this point so far. Already mowing a dust bowl. Frost has done damage. If this is a bad dream I am ready to wake up now.

Matthew wrote:At this time I will take any rain gladly. Way to dry for this time of year already. Amazing seems colder now than was all winter. This weather flat out stinks! No severe wx or even just some good thunder boomers at this point so far. Already mowing a dust bowl. Frost has done damage. If this is a bad dream I am ready to wake up now.

In some ways it reminds me of 2007. We had a dry spring back then, and a late freeze, although I've not seen anything as bad as then. My trees are still green. Back then they were black for about two weeks after a real, killing freeze with temps in the low 20's.

Yeah the GFS has the front stalled over Tennessee for what seems like forever.

Adam2014 wrote:Yeah the GFS has the front stalled over Tennessee for what seems like forever.

Yup. Could finally get some beneficial rain for areas needing it (like mid TN). We aren't quite as dry over here in east TN, but I've only had about 1.8" myself in a month we normally see about 4 or 5 inches.

WxFreak wrote:

Adam2014 wrote:Yeah the GFS has the front stalled over Tennessee for what seems like forever.

Yup. Could finally get some beneficial rain for areas needing it (like mid TN). We aren't quite as dry over here in east TN, but I've only had about 1.8" myself in a month we normally see about 4 or 5 inches.

Hopefully we can get some hail and some lightning at least, I have been so bored.

Just 5 days until the one year anniversary of 4/27. Hard to believe it's been a year. It's one day I won't soon forget.

WxFreak wrote:Just 5 days until the one year anniversary of 4/27. Hard to believe it's been a year. It's one day I won't soon forget.

The most insane storm system I have ever witnessed with my own eyes. I thought it would never end, I get to have surgery on my teeth this friday so I will have to talk about it on thursday. The storms just kept going and there were more and more tornadoes everytime I turned around.

Ouch. I hate dental work. Hope it goes smoothly, Adam.

saturday is starting to get my attention for at least west tn. potent surface low over missouri should provide enough shear... low level moisture may be lacking a tad... but time for that to change as of now... the gfs and euro 12z look pretty similar on this soulution, we could stand a stronger lower jet than what is modeled... but its a start... spc seems to be hinting on this also by day 6 saturday

Scattered thunderstorms associated with the warm fron (some of which could be severe) should be in areas of TN on Friday



The cold front thunderstorms (probably more organized severe) shouldnt enter TN until Sunday


Those possibly could be discrete

As it moves across the state it should turn into more of a linear squall line

Hoping to thread the needle for a rain free hike Saturday.

Saturday should be an isolated storm type of day...might want to pack a rain jacket just in case but rain chances are slight on Saturday