Possible April Freeze

I haven't looked at models in a few weeks, since I really don't once winter season is over. I did notice Japan still has a trough centered over them....seems like the better part of 6 months this has been centered over them.

Yeah...seems to be some change coming

Toot wrote:Yeah...seems to be some change coming

Will be nice to have a decent "cold" snap and average temps before we start the June July August death heat.

Yeah - today's euro has me concerned we could be dealing with a decent late season cold outbreak. Hopefully it's getting late enough that it won't be able to get devestatingly cold.

I can certainly ride out some 40s and 50s before sweltering heat and humidity sets in. Just don't kill the maters Ima set out next weekend and all will be good.

I notice today weather service was talking about a possible frost or FReese . My tablet PC wants to change my spelling for some reason. Oh well.. Anyway this was talked about out of Morisstown, TN. Just something to watch. As you know it may or may not happen. This is for next week.. Anyway anyone thinking about setting out tender plants might want to hold off for a few days.

Yep... this is starting to look more likely

Just got back from a trip to see my folks in Kentucky. Can't believe how much the trees have changed in just a few days. Went from large buds to totally leafed out now on everything--even the oak trees.
Sure hope this cold snap includes "frost" not "freeze." If we have a hard freeze now, we will be hitting a total "REBOOT" on spring. It would be ugly.

GFS and Euro say...you may want to wait another week or 2 before stashing those coats deep in the closet. It's going to be nice to give this ridge that has been sitting over us a good boot to the ass.

Yep this highly agreed on by models now...it wouldnt surprise me to see the mountains get some wet snow with this late season cold

12z GFS ensembles departure fom normal..temps


12z Euro


12z GFS

This is from the 12z GFS which usually underdoes cold snaps and im afraid this would be a widespread freeze across TN...Of course these surface temp maps are useless this far out tho

Toot wrote:This is from the 12z GFS which usually underdoes cold snaps and im afraid this would be a widespread freeze across TN...

Don't tell me these things.. not now man.

I'm hearing of a Nasty, Nasty run of the Euro, from over on American. Nasty Cold . Can anyone fill this child in please. Thank you!!

It looks cold, the cold air just won't leave in that run.

Yep...several nights at or below freezing on the euro

The euro is much deeper with the eastern trough than the CMC or GFS and it also is much further west with the axis of the trough too.

Here is the 12z GFS ensemble mean with the axis further east.


Which would mean not as cold in the western and middle part of the state...The euro represents a major late season freeze but the GFS not so much

12z Euro

Got my fingers crossed it won't be as bad as 2007. "Official" weather forecast has us down to 37F one night next week--at least in the valley. Higher elevations are probably going to have a hard freeze.

WxFreak wrote:Got my fingers crossed it won't be as bad as 2007. "Official" weather forecast has us down to 37F one night next week--at least in the valley. Higher elevations are probably going to have a hard freeze.

I dont think it will be as cold as the euro is saying...the euro is probably an outlier at this point. That said...it really wont bother me if it does tho. We really need a freeze like this before summer....because where it was so warm over the winter that the nats and skeeters are going to be plentiful and humongous without a freeze like the euro portrays

Toot wrote:

WxFreak wrote:Got my fingers crossed it won't be as bad as 2007. "Official" weather forecast has us down to 37F one night next week--at least in the valley. Higher elevations are probably going to have a hard freeze.

I dont think it will be as cold as the euro is saying...the euro is probably an outlier at this point. That said...it really wont bother me if it does tho. We really need a freeze like this before summer....because where it was so warm over the winter that the nats and skeeters are going to be plentiful and humongous without a freeze like the euro portrays

You know, I've been meaning to ask about the gnats and skeeters to someone that knows. Are they controlled by the timing of freezes? I know that there have been years where I seen em in January and others (like this year) that I just saw them for the first time yesterday (since like October). I can't seem to finger it out.

I wouldn't mind a night or two of around 30. Trees that are out can handle that. Anything lower for a sustained amount of time would kill the emerging vegetation. NOT cool, dude.

I imagine they hatched pretty early this year and are already achieving size and numbers equal to that of summer in most years. This would be due to the summer like weather that we have had for a quite a while now.

They probably couldnt survive 2-3 nights below freezing now without killing the majority of them....Dont quote me on that and im not sure that the gnats work the same way that skeeters do... but that seems correct to me without doing a bunch of research

i doubt many areas in west tn will go near freezing... euro is way over doing the trough, not alot of cold any where to briing it down... i think god the pattern is changing for a severe event, thats the main thing.

Thank Stove for building the taunting fire that brought down Thor's hammer. lol

Ok, I've had enough red wine for tonight.

If only I had some of that stuff talked about in that other thread...........

Stovepipe wrote:

Toot wrote:

WxFreak wrote:Got my fingers crossed it won't be as bad as 2007. "Official" weather forecast has us down to 37F one night next week--at least in the valley. Higher elevations are probably going to have a hard freeze.

I dont think it will be as cold as the euro is saying...the euro is probably an outlier at this point. That said...it really wont bother me if it does tho. We really need a freeze like this before summer....because where it was so warm over the winter that the nats and skeeters are going to be plentiful and humongous without a freeze like the euro portrays

You know, I've been meaning to ask about the gnats and skeeters to someone that knows. Are they controlled by the timing of freezes? I know that there have been years where I seen em in January and others (like this year) that I just saw them for the first time yesterday (since like October). I can't seem to finger it out.

Very true about the mosquitos not really figuring it out. They don't really like temps
Below freezing, and anything slightly above, say 34-40 degrees will only just slow them down. Anything above 40 or so is fairly good for mosquitos. One of the most heavily infested with mosquitos places in the world is actually in Alaska and Canada. So just because it gets super cold does not mean less mosquitos. The females lay eggs in raft like structures in just tiny stagnant areas of water. When it turns cold those eggs can lay there even frozen in ice until it warms up enough for them to hatch. This is why it could almost never be cold enough here or really anywhere where mosquitos are found year after year to completely kill them off. The main factor with mosquitos is moisture. That is the bigger factor with this year being so bad. Less rain/moisture would equal fewer mosquitos. Sure, the mild temps has some to do with it, but the rain/ moisture has more. If mosquitos are bad at your place, two of the most important things you can do without calling a post control company are emptying buckets, tires, toys, etc...that have standing water in them. It only takes 2 days to breed and lay eggs for mosquitos. The second is to either spray up under the thick shrubs and trees in the flower bed and yard, or trim the limbs that touch the ground back. This is where mosquitos rest. Also clean out stopped up gutters that hold water, these are excellent areas for breeding skeeters. If this don't work for you, you can always call me, lol be glad to help anyone on here.


Very

Jed33 wrote:

Stovepipe wrote:

Toot wrote:

WxFreak wrote:Got my fingers crossed it won't be as bad as 2007. "Official" weather forecast has us down to 37F one night next week--at least in the valley. Higher elevations are probably going to have a hard freeze.

I dont think it will be as cold as the euro is saying...the euro is probably an outlier at this point. That said...it really wont bother me if it does tho. We really need a freeze like this before summer....because where it was so warm over the winter that the nats and skeeters are going to be plentiful and humongous without a freeze like the euro portrays

You know, I've been meaning to ask about the gnats and skeeters to someone that knows. Are they controlled by the timing of freezes? I know that there have been years where I seen em in January and others (like this year) that I just saw them for the first time yesterday (since like October). I can't seem to finger it out.

Very true about the mosquitos not really figuring it out. They don't really like temps
Below freezing, and anything slightly above, say 34-40 degrees will only just slow them down. Anything above 40 or so is fairly good for mosquitos. One of the most heavily infested with mosquitos places in the world is actually in Alaska and Canada. So just because it gets super cold does not mean less mosquitos. The females lay eggs in raft like structures in just tiny stagnant areas of water. When it turns cold those eggs can lay there even frozen in ice until it warms up enough for them to hatch. This is why it could almost never be cold enough here or really anywhere where mosquitos are found year after year to completely kill them off. The main factor with mosquitos is moisture. That is the bigger factor with this year being so bad. Less rain/moisture would equal fewer mosquitos. Sure, the mild temps has some to do with it, but the rain/ moisture has more. If mosquitos are bad at your place, two of the most important things you can do without calling a post control company are emptying buckets, tires, toys, etc...that have standing water in them. It only takes 2 days to breed and lay eggs for mosquitos. The second is to either spray up under the thick shrubs and trees in the flower bed and yard, or trim the limbs that touch the ground back. This is where mosquitos rest. Also clean out stopped up gutters that hold water, these are excellent areas for breeding skeeters. If this don't work for you, you can always call me, lol be glad to help anyone on here.


Very

Good info Jed, thanks man!