Summer 2012 WX Discussion

WxFreak wrote:Even if we don't get any severe action, it does look cooler next week, especially if the trough is as deep as shown on some models.

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind keeping some of the heat/humidity if rain was the result. The topsoil is really drying out.

i agree with you freak... gettiing bad in this part of state also. we need some rain.

EURO has a huge ridge in the center of the country and a very big trough in the east.

Updated Drought Monitor: http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Abnormally dry conditions (DO) have almost overspread the entire state of Tennessee now. Only a small part of southeast TN is not included. Moderate/Severe drought conditions continue over the far west and northwest part of the state. Without the prospects of widespread rain in the near future, conditions will probably worsen with time. Our neighbors in Kentucky are now classified as dry or in drought, as well.

I suppose we may need to eventually start a separate thread on this in time. I was hoping drought wouldn't be an issue this year, but its not looking too good at the moment.

T-Storms forming in the valley late this afternoon. Hope I get one.

Got some nice thunderstorms here last night. Roads were still pretty wet when I woke this morning

Just got a quick downpour at home. Nearly a quarter inch of rain in a short time. Not enough to help the parched conditions, but any amount is welcome at this point.

WxFreak wrote:Just got a quick downpour at home. Nearly a quarter inch of rain in a short time. Not enough to help the parched conditions, but any amount is welcome at this point.

freak, you sure it wasnt a flock of birds flying over you and pissing... lol. just kidding man... consider yourself EXTREMLEY lucky man... congrats bro.

tennessee storm09 wrote:

WxFreak wrote:Just got a quick downpour at home. Nearly a quarter inch of rain in a short time. Not enough to help the parched conditions, but any amount is welcome at this point.

freak, you sure it wasnt a flock of birds flying over you and pissing... lol. just kidding man... consider yourself EXTREMLEY lucky man... congrats bro.

LOL, well, I did hear a clap of thunder, although, I guess that could've been a bird passing gas.

It was very isolated. I know that because the sun was poking out during the downpour.

Unfortunately, the needed widespread soaking has eluded Tennessee this go around. Some very isolated areas got some rain this week, but unless the pattern changes soon, drought seems inevitable at this point.

I dont think a Great lakes trough pattern will put east TN into any drought because will normally get in its NW flow. We are near normal in rainfall at TYS and the Pattern we are in will stick around all summer. Its been pretty wet over towards Cocke and Hamblen counties. Enough to where my garden is growing like weeds without watering it.

IMO NW flow MCS's will keep east TN out of a drought this summer. Last summer it was death ridge pattern. This summer its the Great Lakes troff pattern that is dominant which will keep ETN fairly wet.

The further west u go in the state drought chances will increase...but i expect ETN to come out about avg or slightly above average in rainfall this summer...just my two cents

Here's hoping you are correct. Hopefully, the trough will be in such a position to allow Gulf inflow into the area, and not be a continuous supply of dry, continental air over the area. I sure would love to see an MCS, or several, give us a good couple of inches of rain.

I dug up a dead bush in the yard last week, and was surprised at how dry the topsoil already is. Sure doesn't take long in this 90 degree heat with the extended days full of

Chatty not faring as well as TYS so far this year in the precip department. They are down over 5 inches for the year. Driest spring on record didn't help matters.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY T 1.15 1990 0.14 -0.14 0.50
MONTH TO DATE 2.43 2.90 -0.47 2.76
SINCE JUN 1 2.43 2.90 -0.47 2.76
SINCE JAN 1 20.37 25.72 -5.35 31.50

Just noticed the temp forecast for late next week for my area. Ouch.

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 90.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 95.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

Almost pushing the century mark there. Geez.

So far the month of june has come in slightly below normal temp wise.

IMO this should continue through the summer as I alluded to in my summer forecast which can be found here

From MRX long-term AFD:

A TROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EITHER EAST OR WEST AND NOT INFLUENCE THE HOT PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AND THEN 90S EVERYWHERE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY SOME PLACES MAY REACH NEAR 100. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY AND INCREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY. SATURDAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE MORE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE RIDGE WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH.

Currently, it looks like they expect Debbie to have little influence here due to the building monster HP over the area. Another shot of hot comin' down the pike. After this hot spell, areas that did not get rain (which includes most of TN outside of a few areas in the far east/northeast region) will be praying for a soaking. Temps in the upper 90's will put a great deal of stress on most garden plants when the top few inches of soil is dry. My folks in southeast KY are having to run soaker hoses all through their garden to just keep the tomatoes and beans alive. London, KY (where they live) has only had 0.37" of rain so far this month. The ground is baked there after the recent hot spell.

I disagree with MRX...I think the pattern is fixing get active with NW Flow MCS's...due to the nao. That negative nao will keep us from baking for more than weak at a time...amd that GL trough pattern is here to stay

They do have things becoming more active, but it is Saturday and beyond, after the ridge weakens, and a front finally moves into the area. Before then, they say mostly dry with temps increasing each day until we approach the upper 90's on Friday. I sure hope they are wrong. But so far in June, we haven't had much active wx around.

Precip forecast for the next 5 days. Debbie clearly depicted in the Gulf. Most precip in our area confined to the foothills and mountains, and points east.

Morning long-term AFD from MRX:

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE DEVELOPING HEAT WAVE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.

FOR MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE LIMITED...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. PWS DROP AT OR BELOW 0.5 INCH.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA. VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HOT CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS MOS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

OHX Long term AFD:

THE COOL SHOT WILL BE BRIEF. THE STRONG HOT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE HOT AIR MASS...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY DRY SOIL AND VEGETATION...WILL SEND HIGH TEMPS OVER 100 FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXCEED 100 WILL BE WEST OF I 65. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. THE AIR WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVELY HUMID...SO HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

LATEST GFS BACKS OFF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT KEEPS IT HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE. ONE GLIMMER OF HOPE...THE LATEST ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGS MOISTURE FROM WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TS DEBBY INTO MID TN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THAT FAR AHEAD.

Starting to look pretty ugly for the latter half of the week. Temps will be the hottest so far this summer, and little chance for rain outside of isolated terrain induced thunderstorms. Maybe by the weekend we'll have a break in this oppressive pattern, but a lot depends on where Debbie ends up.

Well, I won't be mowing the grass today--it's turning brown. Time to pull out the water hose.

good post freak... century mark is going to be very hard to avoid i am affraid... since the soil is so dry... that trough coming late monday n tuesday may hurt us with debbie chances giving us rain... it will pick it up and kick it through florida and out to sea... i have been on the euro trian as of late... i hope its right, if not were fixiing to burn up.

One thing to consider: most of TN (except for the southeast corner) and surrounding areas are now considerd dry, or in drought conditions. That will ultimately affect future temperatures. Dry soil and drying vegetation will permit temps to be higher than they would otherwise be if we weren't parched. I'm afraid that unless the pattern changes, and soon, we'll going to see drought intensify across the area. Drought begets heat, heat begets drought. They feed on each other, and lock the pattern in for weeks on end. WE NEED RAIN to break this pattern.

I'll have to disagree with yall Freak

So far for the month of June...the temps statewide have averaged below normal by a degree or two. The negative NAO pattern that we have been stuck in for a little over a month now is responsible for the below average temperatures.

Ive seen the NAO forecasted to go back positive at least twice this month...but the high latitude blocking has been established for over a month now. And as you alluded to..the higher pressures/lack of rainfall tend to develop dry conditions which in turn re-feed the drier pattern that is higher pressures.

Now that the negative NAO/high latitude blocking pattern has been in place since last may I dont see it going anywhere until about fall.

A negative NAO summer pattern doesnt usually break into a neutral/positive NAO pattern until the Fall/Autumn season. What the high Lat blocking does.. is keep a chronic Great Lakes troff swinging through on a regular basis and then we get the NW flow from the GL's troff's. What that tends to do is keep the extremely hot temps away and also keeps a chronic MCS pathway or two to setup and roll through the TN valley region.

Where these MCS "mean" pathways setup will determine who gets feast or famine in the rainfall department. West TN could be headed for a major drought tho IMO..Because im afraid one MCS track has already setup through middle TN...but there will be a couple more mean paths that setup in the TN Valley region....Remember Summer just started.

This pattern will not allow a death ridge to setup for more than a few days keeping the rest of our summer normal to below normal tempwise and near normal rainfall in the eastern half of the state.


This should all hold true unless the NAO can break out of negative territory this summer. The chances of that happening are slim due to the record positive values seen during winter and spring. In theory and statistically speaking...our temps should average out near to below normal all the way out to Febuary.


Also a -NAO During the JJA period highly correlates to a -NAO pattern during the DJF timeframe

This is not going anywhere anytime soon


Just my two cents

Let's hope the MCS storm train starts building up some steam soon, or I think it's going to be derailed off the tracks. I mean, while some isolated areas have been doing ok in the rainfall deparment, the Ohio and TN valleys as a whole have been getting drier and drier for several months now. I, myself, have seen only 2.2" of rain for June. With 5 days of dry, sunny weather this week, the soil will continue the drying process. We lose a quarter to three quarters of an inch of water daily from the soil in summer sun/heat. Without replacing it, abnormally dry topsoil conditions will develop quickly.

There is drought also developing to our north in Kentucky, and to our west. IMO, without a CHANGE in this pattern--meaning the MCS train you alluded to--then some form of drought is inevitable. Certainly after this week alone, nearing 100F, and little rain, we'll start to see crops suffer from the heat stress alone. And while we do have a -NAO, I don't see that it's helping us much. Storm systems are few and far between right now. We need a front to stall nearby, and bring appreciable moisture up from the Gulf to get needed summer rains, and I don't see that happening any time soon.

I'm holding out hope for next week right now, as this week doesn't hold the promise of widespread soaking rains.

We have one "cooler" day this week (Tuesday), then the heat is on.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 89.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68.

Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 94.

By Saturday, slight chances of storms finally enter the forecast. But 20-30% coverage isn't going to help the majority of us. Hopefully, chances will increase as we approach the weekend.

Most of east TN is 1-3 inches below normal in rainfall...not really a big deal. but west TN is really hurting...one good Tropical storm could bring Eastern TN back to or above normal in precip.

Great page for rain data
http://water.weather.gov/precip/